Without Improvement, Jaguars Pressure Could Shift to Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranks 20th in important NFL measurement since 2022.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) congratulates wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) on his touchdown score during the third quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Packers edged the Jaguars 30-27 on a last-second field goal. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Trevor Lawrence is entering a critical year in his NFL career. He’s healthy, has a new Liam Coen playbook and coaching staff, and several new teammates.

And once James Gladstone completes his first draft late next month, at some point in the next 7-8 months, the pressure will shift back to Lawrence, who signed a five-year, $275 million extension in June.

Now on his fourth NFL head coach in five years, Lawrence has seen Urban Meyer, Darrell Bevell and Doug Pederson leave the team. And including injuries, Lawrence has certainly had some obstacles. He’s also had talent around him.

Some question whether he can show quality improvement and return to his form in 2022, when he led the Jaguars to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with the best year of his career. Two of those people are certainly Gladstone and Coen, who are well aware of Lawrence’s numbers in the EPA metric.

The 33rd Team on Sunday posted a list of the NFL’s 20 best quarterbacks in EPA on all dropbacks since 2022. Lawrence (46.0) ranked last. Josh Allen (338.3) and Patrick Mahomes (325.3) ranked first and second, respectively. Kyler Murray, who ranked 19th with 63.7, was next-closest to Lawrence.

EPA stands for expected points added. Scouts and analysts used historical data to create the term, along with expected points, and it has now become a critical part of evaluating NFL players.

“Expected Points is based off the notion that not all yards gained in football are of equal value,” The 33rd Team explained. “For example, a 5-yard gain on third-and-3 increases a team’s chances of scoring much more than the same 5-yard gain on third-and-10. While both situations would reflect a gain of 5 yards in a traditional box score, the first would result in a first down and continue the drive, while the other would likely force the team to punt on fourth down.

“Expected Points attempts to quantify this difference in value by relating each play to how much it increases (or decreases) a team’s chances of scoring.”

EPA is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expected points.

“For example,” wrote The 33rd Team, “if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3 – 2.5 or 0.5 EPA.”

In other words, EPA is an excellent gauge of how well a starting quarterback engineers his offense. How Lawrence responds this season will be something to watch.

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