Odd Shift in Packers’ Super Bowl Odds After Week 1
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Following the Green Bay Packers’ lopsided victory over a big division rival in Week 1, you’d think the oddsmakers would shift the odds.
And there was a shift. Just not quite what you might have guessed.
The Packers opened at +4000 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook. Interestingly, that had moved to +4200 by midday Monday. They have the 16th-shortest odds, unchanged from last week.
Why? According to FanDuel’s John Sheeran, the sportsbook was higher on the Packers than most of its competitors entering the season. Plus, the NFC went 10-6 in Week 1, so it’s not as if Green Bay is the only team off to a strong start.
Green Bay’s odds did change for the better in a few areas.
Green Bay’s over/under win total jumped from 7.5 to 8.5.
Yes/no on the playoffs went from +165 to a dead-even -110 on each side of the bet.
In the NFC North, the projected order before the season was Lions (+145), Vikings (+270), Packers (+350) and Bears (+420). After Week 1, with Detroit and Green Bay winning and Minnesota and Chicago losing, it’s Lions (-115), Packers (+290), Vikings (+410) and Bears (+850).
Even with the second-shortest odds to win the North, Green Bay has the third-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl among the division teams. The Lions are +1800, the Vikings are +4000 and the Bears are +8500.
To win NFL MVP, Jordan Love moved from +4000 to +3000 following his three-touchdown performance.
The big story following Week 1 was Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles injury in his hotly anticipated New York Jets debut. Predictably, the Jets’ odds took a major dive. To win the Super Bowl, they moved from +1800 to +6500. Seemingly a lock to make the postseason before Week 1, they are +205. By implied probability, that’s 32.8 percent.
The Packers are looking to move to 2-0 on Sunday with a game at the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are 1-0, as well, with a two-touchdown victory at home against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. Underdogs last week, the Packers are 1.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook.
Showing how fickle the odds are at this early stage of the season, the Jets are +3300 to win the Super Bowl, even without Rodgers, at SI Sportsbook. The Packers and Falcons are +4000.
It was a wild Week 1 in the NFL. Three of the big favorites, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, lost their season-opening games. The Chiefs remain the favorites across the sportsbooks. While the NFC is the weaker conference, the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are considered the prime challengers.
Here are the odds at SuperBook.
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