Supercomputer Loves the Packers But Hates Top Rival

Here’s what a supercomputer has to say about the Packers qualifying for the playoffs, winning the NFC North and finally grabbing the Lombardi Trophy.

Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur is shown before their preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

GREEN BAY, Wis. – NFL games aren’t played on paper. They’re not played on silicon, either.

However, one supercomputer thinks pretty highly of the Green Bay Packers’ chances of winning the Super Bowl.

According to Stats Perform (formerly Stats Inc), the Packers have the third-best chance of winning this year’s championship. The Los Angeles Rams, despite laying an egg in their opener against the rival San Francisco 49ers, remain heavy favorites. The New England Patriots, despite laying an egg in their Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks, are second. The Packers are third.

Here are the odds from Stats.

Rams: 18.18 percent.

Patriots: 8.0 percent.

Packers: 5.90 percent.

Lions: 5.30 percent.

Jaguars: 5.15 percent.

Seahawks: 5.03 percent.

Eagles: 4.78 percent.

Bengals: 4.65 percent.

Cowboys: 4.38 percent.

Chargers: 4.13 percent.

Interestingly, at least according to the computer, the Detroit Lions have a better chance to win the NFC North (38.4 percent to 36.0 percent) and qualify for the playoffs (64.0 percent to 61.7 percent), but the Packers have a better chance to win the NFC title (9.75 percent to 9.13 percent) and Super Bowl.

The Packers and Lions are “extremely close in our TRACR rankings, with the Lions (fourth in the NFL) holding a slight edge over the Packers (sixth),” Kevin Chroust, editor-in-chief of Opta Analyst, explained to Packers On SI.

The Lions, he said, will benefit from playing a last-place schedule and the Packers will benefit from their homefield advantage.

“Detroit and Green Bay have basically the same odds of making the playoffs,” Chroust wrote. “But in the event that they have identical records at the end of the season, which happens reasonably often in simulations given how closely they are rated, Green Bay is more likely to have the tiebreaker. There are two reasons for that.

“The first has to do with how good the Packers are at home. The Packers have the third-best homefield advantage in our model, and the Lions have the fifth-worst. That matters because the first tiebreaker in division races is head-to-head. The Packers are favored more in their home game than the Lions are in theirs, so the Packers have a better shot at winning both head-to-head games.”

And that could matter if the teams wind up tied for the NFC North. The division winner, of course, gets a first-round home game while a wild-card team has to hit the road.

“When Green Bay and Detroit are tied for the best team in the division, Green Bay wins the tiebreaker about 66 percent of the time. Beyond that, division record is the second tiebreaker, and our sim has the Packers odds at 56.2 percent for their divisional games with Detroit at 53.9.”

The supercomputer is not bullish on the Bears. For NFC North chances, the Bears are last for winning the division at 11.5 percent and qualifying for the playoffs at 27.8 percent. The Bears have a 1.25 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is behind the Vikings and Colts and just ahead of the Chiefs, Cardinals and Saints.

“We think the NFC North could be the most interesting division in the NFL this season,” Chroust said. “Plenty of people expect a step forward from the 2025 division-winning Bears, but there are reasons to be cautious with that pick. TRACR projects the Bears will regress because two of the toughest statistics to replicate year-over-year are turnovers generated and comeback wins, both of which fueled Chicago’s rise last season.”

The Packers know how hard it can be to duplicate takeaway success.

“The Bears defense ranked 26th last season in success rate allowed but were buoyed by generating a league-high 33 turnovers,” Chroust’s colleague, Matt Kelley, wrote separately. “Obviously, turnover creation is great for a defense, but it has been shown to be statistically unreliable. For example, the Packers were top-five in creating turnovers in 2024 with 31, but they were bottom-five with just 14 last season.”

The computer gave the Vikings a 54.6 percent chance of winning Sunday’s season-opening game.

“Yeah, that’s when it’s real, right?” quarterback Jordan Love said of what he’d learn this week. “Practice, we put ourselves through all these different situations and things, but when you get to a real game, that’s when it’s real. We’ve got to go out there and execute, play at a high level. Obviously, it’s us vs. them. Who’s going to go out there and be the best team? Who’s going to execute the most plays? Who’s going to be the toughest on the field?

“Everything’s real, so I want guys to go out there, play free, play fast. There’s always going to be mistakes and things you want to clean up, but as a team, you’ve got to play the next play, move on. If something happens, we’ll talk about it later in the film room, but go out there, play fast, play physical and execute at a high level.”

This will be a huge game for the Packers, who haven’t won the NFC North since 2021.

“Coach always says it’s a two-point swing in terms of the wins and losses for our division,” Packers receiver Christian Watson said, “so to be able to start the season off with an NFC North rival and, obviously, get a chance to start on top in the division will be big time for us.”

Five storylines that I'll be watching when the Packers kick of the season at the Vikings. ⬇️https://t.co/6PgHqZT961

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 11, 2026

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