Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose Against Falcons

Make no mistake about it. The Green Bay Packers should win Thursday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. For all that has gone wrong for the Packers through two weeks, the Falcons have had it much worse. They’ve already played their fourth-string quarterback this season, and have yet to run a play in their opponent’s red zone this season.

Then again, the Packers probably should have won multiple games during their six game losing streak that they snapped last week.

The NFL is a week-to-week league, and Thursday night games add to that variance. The Falcons, for some of their faults do have some talent on their roster that can exploit Green Bay’s weaknesses.

Those strengths could be the reasons the Packers lose their home opener.

Bijan Robinson

The Packers’ run defense has been excellent through two weeks this season. They’ve faced Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason of the Minnesota Vikings before following up with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen of the New York Jets.

Now, much like a 1990s video game, their third test is the Packers’ version of final boss mode.

Bijan Robinson is one of the best running backs in all of football, and the Packers know it.

“Yeah I mean however you want to rank him in the world, put him up there,” defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said. I mean high volume guy, can beat you multiple ways, really good contact balance to get extra yardage. He can hit home runs. In the pass game, I would say elite. In the run game, I would say elite and the offense is running through him, so we got a big-time challenge. We know that he’s going to make his plays. We got to minimize him as much as we can.”

The Packers have faced Robinson before when he was a rookie in 2023. 2023 was forever ago in NFL terms, but that game was a glimpse into what Robinson is capable of doing in a given game. He fan for more than 120 yards, and added another 48 yards through the air. He was the best player on the field that day.

A little short on pass rushers? Edgerrin Cooper can handle it. pic.twitter.com/aGbsz0Zft7
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 21, 2026

The Falcons’ offense has run through Robinson through two weeks this season, and that is unlikely to change with Kevin Stefanski calling their plays. The Packers have been excellent through two weeks on the ground, but if they slip up against the most talented back they’ve faced so far, it could be a long night.

Run Defense/Stubbornness

Green Bay’s run game against Atlanta’s run defense is a classic example of the stoppable force meeting the immovable object.

Of all Atlanta’s problems so far this season, stopping the run has not been one of them. They’re the best team in the league, allowing 63 yards-per-game.

The Packers have not had an individual rusher go over 63 yards in one game this season. The Packers have gained 66 and 63 yards as a team in each game this season. One of those games required overtime for the Packers to reach that number.

The run game, in short, is anemic to start the season.

“They’re big and physical up front. They’ve got a really nice front. They penetrate, so it’s gonna be a big challenge for us,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. Their safeties are good players. They can tackle in space, cover ground. So yeah, they’re a good unit up front.

The Packers cannot abandon their run game altogether, but this could be a game where Matt LaFleur’s insistence on establishing the run could come back to bite them. Earlier in the week he talked about needing to be able to run the ball into two high safety looks.

"If teams are going to sit there and play two high safeties, you have to be able to establish a run game. You have to, otherwise, it’s tough sledding in the pass game, and there’s a lot of things that suffer because of that. You’re, I mean, you mentioned the completion percentage hasn’t been great either. So, I think every situation’s a little bit different. We’re obviously going to call the plays that we think are going to give us the best opportunity to go score, and unfortunately, it hasn’t, it didn’t work out in that situation.”

LaFleur is right. The Packers cannot abandon their run game. Throwing the ball is harder without some threat of the ability to run the football. It’s also true that seeing a two-safety shell cannot force the offense to default into its run game. That’s what the defense is inviting.

With the way Green Bay’s run game has fared so far this season, there’s probably a reason a defense would want to try and force them into running the ball.

Sometimes, leaning into what the offense does best is the best answer, even if the defense is giving you something else.

Competent Quarterback Play Opens Up Weapons

Through two weeks the Falcons have played Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback. With all due respect to both of those guys, neither would be a preferred starter for any of the other 31 teams in the NFL.

Michael Penix Jr. is a former first round pick, and has plenty of talent. He was one of the top quarterbacks in the country at Washington, which caused the Falcons to pick him to sit behind Kirk Cousins for most of his rookie season.

Penix Jr. has struggled with injuries. He’s torn his ACL three times, among a litany of other injuries that would have made a lesser man wilt.

Toughness defines him, and on the field he has an NFL arm. When the Falcons put the ball in the air, they do have some options in the passing game who can hurt the Packers down the field. Drake London is Atlanta’s top receiver, and is very good in his own right. Kyle Pitts started to break out last season at tight end, and is a matchup nightmare.

Of course, Robinson is another option out of the backfield as well.

Penix Jr. has not played football since last November and has limited practice reps, so it’s going to be a challenge both for the quarterback and Green Bay’s defense facing him.

“Obviously, you see some schematics, some of their premium players jump off the tape and we’re going to have some unknown variables coming in with Michael getting the start. So, big-time challenge for us, especially on a short week,” defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said.

From @JacobWestendorf, it’s the 10 most important Packers for tonight’s game against the Falcons. ⬇️https://t.co/WfiOZLZ28y
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 24, 2026

Add us as a preferred source on Google