Prediction: Will Packers Set NFL Record By Beating Falcons Tonight?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Entering Thursday’s home opener against the Atlanta Falcons, the Green Bay Packers are unbeatable.

The Packers have won 13 consecutive home openers, tied with the Miami Dolphins for the longest streak in NFL history. The Packers, of course, have sputtered out of the gate to start this season, splitting road tests against the Vikings and Jets. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 0-2 and were hammered on Sunday against Carolina.

Generally speaking, playing at home on a Thursday is an advantage. Playing on a short week is difficult for any team; having to hop on an airplane makes the challenge even greater. Indeed, since the start of the 2020 season, the home team in primetime is 55-43.

The Packers are only 2-3 in home Thursday night games under coach Matt LaFFleur, though they beat up on the Commanders last season and the Dolphins in 2024.

There are reasons to believe this game could be more challenging than meets the eye. As we laid out earlier, the Falcons have an “elite” running back with Bijan Robinson. He’s been bottled up this season, but the Falcons might have a legitimate quarterback with Michael Penix making his first start.

Penix has three big-time playmakers to help, led by the reigning first-team All-Pro running back, Robinson.

“However, you want to rank him in the world, put him up there,” defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said on Tuesday. “High-volume guy, can beat you multiple ways. Really good contact balance to get extra yardage. He can hit home runs. In the pass game, I would say elite. In the run game, I would say elite.”

There are other danger spots, too.

The Packers have the worst running game in the NFL; the Falcons have the top-ranked rushing defense. The Packers have the worst third-down offense in the NFL; the Falcons have the 10th-ranked third-down defense.

“They’re big and physical up front,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said.

The Falcons, incredibly, have not had a single red-zone possession on offense this season. Penix should help, and they’ll have all sorts of unscouted looks – obviously – to throw at a Packers red-zone defense that ranks 28th.

https://x.com/sfdata9ers/status/2103190730734768427

So, those are the trouble spots for the Packers.

However, the Falcons have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL – they’re 25th in sack percentage – and they’ll line up without their top cornerback, A.J. Terrell. That could be a combination of gasoline and a blow torch for quarterback Jordan Love and his passing game, which will be looking for a bounce-back performance after a dismal outing against the Jets.

At home on Sunday, the Falcons surrendered 287 passing yards and three touchdowns against Bryce Young and the Panthers. They had five completions of 25-plus yards. There’s no reason why Love can’t have a big day, too.

“I’m always good with that,” Love said of having more on his plate with the injuries on the offensive line and receiver Jayden Reed and the lack of a running game. “I’m always good with putting more on my plate. But in terms of making plays and trying to go above and beyond and do too much, stick to my rules, stick to my fundamentals and try to go out there and be the player I can be.”

Being at home will be an immeasurable help for a Packers offensive line that needs all the help it can get. Especially after playing in the mind-numbing noise of U.S. Bank Stadium, playing at Lambeau will be a big edge for Green Bay’s blockers.

Ultimately, I picked the Packers last week because they were the Packers and the Jets were the Jets. I’ll use the same premise this week. I could talk myself into picking the Falcons for the reasons outlined above, but I’ll side with Love and Green Bay’s home advantage. The Packers have a better roster than the Falcons and they proved they can go win a game in the fourth quarter, which they’ll need to do to win this game.

Prediction: Packers 20, Falcons 13.

Bill’s record: 2-0.

Jacob Westendorf’s Packers-Falcons Prediction

I don’t think it’ll be pretty. Thursday games are typically the sloppiest and the Packers have been the sloppiest team in football through two weeks.

They won’t be able to run the ball much against Atlanta’s stingy front, but Jordan Love and the passing game should find enough holes in Atlanta’s secondary.

Defensively, I’m buying what Jonathan Gannon is selling through two weeks, and Michael Penix has not played football in over a year.

That’s a lot to overcome for a team that has really struggled in their first two games this season.

Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 13.

Jacob’s record: 1-1.

Here’s Javon Bullard talking about this play.https://t.co/7388G1bPAO https://t.co/dsd2noLjlI
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 24, 2026

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