NFL projection model inexplicably puts Panthers in loser territory after offseason moves

The Panthers, according to the data, got worse.

Dec 15, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales reacts in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers have been one of the offseason's most active teams. They extended one of their own players, re-signed a few, and have added five new defenders. When you have a historically poor defense, that is somewhat required. However, all the moves they've made might not have helped.

In fact, one NFL insider's data poll has a shocking result. Not only did the Panthers signing all those impact defenders not make them better, it made them worse. Based on the outgoing free agents and the incoming replacements so far, the Panthers have lost 4.9 expected points.

The Athletic's Austin Mock explained, "To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game."

Dec 8, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton (98) celebrates after a sack against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Ultimately, the model doesn't think Tershawn Wharton, Tre'Von Moehrig, Bobby Brown III, Rico Dowdle, and others are going to move the needle. That, or the model thinks losing Ian Thomas, Xavier Woods, and a smattering of others was too detrimental.

Neither really makes a lot of sense. The Panthers may or may not have spent well. They might be banking on improvement from a lot of players they spent highly on, but to say that those players will somehow be worse, especially on defense, than what practice squad players the team had last year is incredible.

Rico Dowdle, a 1,000-yard rusher, is an improvement on Miles Sanders. Bobby Brown is much better than Shy Tuttle, who actually stayed on the roster. Tershawn Wharton is probably better than A'Shawn Robinson, or he's at least as good. Tre'Von Moehrig is better than Xavier Woods, or again at least as good.

Somehow, that doesn't quite add up to an improved roster per the model. Fortunately, there's still time to improve with the draft. The Panthers have nine picks, including three in the top 100, to make this spring.

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