The Major Risk Panthers' Tetairoa McMillan Carries for Fantasy Football

An analyst names the biggest concern with Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in fantasy football, but that concern might be overblown.

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ahead of the 2026 NFL season, Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is going to be a hot name in fantasy football circles.

That's because McMillan is coming off a successful rookie year in which he finished with 70 receptions for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. McMillan also finished as WR16 overall in PPR.

As he heads into Year 2, the expectation is McMillan will be even better with some experience under his belt and he could propel himself into the conversation as one of the better wideouts in fantasy football as a result.

However, one analyst is pumping the brakes on that.

Could Panthers' offense limit McMillan's upside?

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Fantasy Sports On SI's Daniel Outerbridge labeled McMillan as a "high-risk, high-reward" fantasy football option. He says that's because the Panthers are a run-heavy team.

"The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is expected to see an increase in volume during his second season, but the Panthers were 21st in the league in passing attempts, which could cap McMillan's ceiling," Outerbridge wrote.

"Panthers head coach Dave Canales' offensive scheme is heavily run-dominant which may contribute to regression instead of increased efficiency," he added.

Panthers' run-pass balance and McMillan's target share

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young and head coach Dave Canales. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While it's true the Panthers ranked 21st in pass attempts, they also ranked 19th in rushing attempts and threw the ball 54 more times than they ran it. That's 52.8% to 47.2% in favor of the pass.

That shows the Panthers were actually fairly balanced on offense, but their run rate was still the 11th-highest in the league while the team's pass rate was the 11th-lowest, which shows Carolina likes to run the ball more often than most teams.

How McMillan can overcome a run-heavy approach

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Even if the Panthers lean on the run even more in 2026, an uptick in target share and catch rate could offset that and lead to more production overall.

According to Sumer Sports, McMillan's 25.42% target share was ranked 15th among wide receivers last season. The top mark in the NFL was 35.82% (Jaxon Smith-Njigba).

The Panthers aren't exactly flush with reliable receiver options, so it's not crazy to think McMillan could finish north of 30% this coming season.

Another thing that could help McMillan is improving his catch rate. Among wideouts with at least 250 routes run, McMillan was 68th in catch percentage (57.38%).

There are many ways that can improve, from Bryce Young throwing more accurate passes, to McMillan dropping fewer passes and doing a better job getting open, which can be helped by the Panthers doing a better job of scheming him open.

Would we bank on McMillan being among the elite wideouts in fantasy football in 2026? No, and that's mostly because of concerns we have with how well Young will play.

But we do believe there is plenty of room for McMillan to produce at least a few hundred more yards than he did during his rookie year despite a run-heavy approach.