History suggests mediocre Panthers will win first-round playoff game

The Carolina Panthers are, by virtually every metric, the worst playoff team in the field. The 8-9 record is two games worse than the next team (or 1.5 games, because of the Green Bay Packers' tie).

The -69 point differential is worse than the New York Giants, who are picking in the top five. They're the only team with a negative differential still standing. EPA, DVOA, and all the advanced analytics tell the same story.

In fact, they're one of the worst playoff teams ever. Somehow, despite that fact, they have history on their side to at least win one contest.

History suggests Panthers upset is likely in NFL playoffs

Jan 3, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) makes a catch against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Jacob Parrish (25) in the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

There have been three NFL playoff teams with worse point differentials than the 2025 Carolina Panthers:

2004 Rams (-73)
2011 Broncos (-81)
2010 Seahawks (-97)

The Panthers had a -69 point differential this season (23rd in NFL).

The only playoff teams with a lower point diff:

🔻2004 Rams (-73)
🔻2011 Broncos (-81)
🔻2010 Seahawks (-97)

Each of the previous 3 won in the Wild Card round. @Panthers | #KeepPounding
— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 5, 2026

All three of those teams won their opening playoff game. In the latter two examples, something incredible happened on the way. The 2010 Seahawks got the Beastquake game to beat the New Orleans Saints, and the 2011 Broncos won on an opening 80-yard TD from Demaryius Thomas.

The Panthers are next up on that list, and it's going to take a Herculean effort of some kind to win. Maybe Rico Dowdle has his own Beast Mode resurgence and carries the Panthers to the upset.

Perhaps they sneak into overtime and get a 65-yard touchdown from Tetairoa McMillan on the first play, although new NFL rules would still give the Rams a possession and a chance to win or tie and keep the game alive.

Furthermore, the Panthers' own history suggests a win is possible. They're the only team to ever make it in twice with a losing record. They were 7-8-1 in 2014 and snuck in via the NFC South title.

Famously, that team beat the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card Round. However, they were quite QB-strapped that game. Ryan Lindley started and threw two interceptions. Those Panthers then went into Seattle and lost a tough one to the Legion of Boom Seahawks.

Regardless, there's a ton of history that suggests the Panthers will win, although the opponent they face might be the toughest in all of those historical examples.

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