Patriots Have Fatal Flaw That Nobody is Talking About

Just as everyone predicted at the beginning of the season, the New England Patriots are 11-2 and are poised for a deep playoff run.

Powered by one of the league's best young quarterbacks in Drake Maye, the team’s already unbelievable resurgence has placed them back atop the NFL hierarchy.

Yet as expectations have evolved from winning season to wildcard berth to winning the AFC, one potentially major flaw threatens to derail the team’s dream run.

And no, it's not the schedule... not directly, anyway.

The Schedule Narrative is Overblown

Yes, the Patriots have had an “easy” schedule. But that in itself isn’t a cause for concern. Through their “easy schedule,” the team still claimed season-defining wins against the Carolina Panthers in a blowout, the Buffalo Bills in a road playoff atmosphere, the Cleveland Browns and their top three defense, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were contenders at the time.

When New England has had to play some of the bottom-most teams in the league, they’ve won convincingly — this cannot be said for all contenders with easy opponents.

The Denver Broncos, for example, are also 11-2 but currently hold the one-seed in the AFC. They, like the Patriots, have also faced many of the same bottom-echelon teams. Of the most recent common teams they've played, the Broncos eked out wins against the New York Jets and New York Giants by a combined margin of three points; in comparison, New England beat those same two teams by a margin of 31.

With a dominant team, the caveat with having an easy schedule means that winning doesn't necessarily become a lot easier — after all, a good team should win regardless of opponent. What an easy schedule does mean, though, is that it becomes a lot harder to lose; mistakes that would cost games against strong opponents become footnotes against weak ones.

If there has been anything actually detrimental about the easy schedule, it's been that these blips have gone under the radar, covering what could be the team's fatal flaw this winter.

The Patriots Biggest Flaw Is...

subpar situational playcalling on offense.

Patriots fans have a unique love-hate relationship with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in that they will flip between both emotions within the same game. To be absolutely clear, McDaniels is an offensive genius who deserves immense praise for his role in developing Maye into an MVP candidate. His pivotal role in the franchise's success cannot be overstated, and he is one of the greatest offensive minds in league history.

Yet, it's been a surefire bet this season that, if New England climbs to a two-score lead in the second half, the playcalling will turn inexplicably passive. It doesn't matter if the running game hasn't been fruitful all game. It doesn't matter if the team's MVP-caliber quarterback is completely in rhythm. The playcalling will look to run clock instead of putting the game away.

MNF vs. Giants

For example, look to the team's most recent showing on Monday Night Football. Lost amidst Maye's missiles and Christian Elliss' explosive tackles was the fact that the Giants were driving the ball down just 15 points with nearly 11 minutes on the clock — more than enough time to mount a comeback.

Hidden in the win probability graph of this game is a blip in the second half. The blip, only worth about 1-2% of lost win probability, represents the moment when New York closed the lead to get to two scores.

Win probability graph of the New York Giants at the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. — rbsdm.com

Understanding the context of this situation is important. The Patriots closed out the last minute of first half with an electric five-play 67-yard field goal drive as time expired. Maye was very clearly in rhythm, having completed nine of 10 passes in the second quarter for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Giants' offense was stymied on their first drive of the third quarter, giving New England the ball up 30-7 with a chance put the game out of hand, since even a field goal would push the game from a three- to four-score game.

This is where the passive playcalling began.

On first and second downs from the Patriots' 38-yard line, Rhamondre Stevenson got carries for minimal gains, bringing up an immediate third-and-7. In an obvious passing situation, Maye had to scramble to eke out the first down.

On the next set of downs, starting at the New England 49, a 2-yard first down run by TreVeyon Henderson is followed by a 9-yard pass to move the chains. This 9-yard pass is followed by another 9-yard pass on first down, bringing the offense to the New York 31-yard line on second-and-1.

At this point, Maye had completed two good passes and the offense was in clear scoring position despite falling behind the sticks due to a struggling running game — it was very apparent that he was in rhythm, continuing where he left off at halftime. Two handoffs and five lost yards later, it was fourth-and-6.

Regardless, Maye converted the fourth down with a 10-yard strike to Stefon Diggs, moving the ball to the Giants' 26.

It was clear that the passing offense, having completed its last three attempts for 29 yards, was moving well — so on first down, the Patriots handed off to Stevenson, who lost a yard.

Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes the ball during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Immediately put behind the sticks again, Maye threw incompletions on second- and third-and-11. The drive ended with a missed 45-yard field goal; four minutes later, New York scored, and a potential four-score game became a two-score one.

When calculating the drive breakdown, there were a total of six run plays and seven pass plays. The pass plays yielded a total of +4.7 estimated points added (EPA), or a per play average of +.25, while the run plays yielded -4.5 EPA for a per-play average of -.75.

The story of this drive was straightforward; the rushing attack was actively hurting New England's offensive momentum, while the passing attack consistently picked up the slack. Having to convert three third downs and a fourth down in a single drive is a Herculean ask for any quarterback, even Maye.

This lack of ground production shouldn't be a surprise either. Through 13 games, the Patriots have the fifth-worst rushing offense in the league by yards per carry. Yet, the tendency of playcalling to rely on such a shaky rushing foundation has created many such second-half "blips" on other New England win probability graphs — blips that have only ever remained blips so far because of a weaker schedule.

The Patriots, for example, took a 21-10 lead against the Buccaneers with a chance to go up three scores. Instead they played passive (2-yard run, 1-yard run, incompletion, punt), went three-and-out, and saw their win probability plummet from 85% to 59% over the next quarter as Tampa Bay brought the game to 21-16.

Similar blips can be seen in the teams' games against the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, and Atlanta Falcons. In fact, for each of those games, the team entered a one-score game in the fourth quarter and failed to put the game out of reach, with all three games having to end on defensive stands.

Patriots' Fourth Quarter Offensive Woes

New England is the second-worst fourth quarter offense in the league by points-per-game.

While this stat can certainly be skewed by blowouts in the team's favor, the stat lines up with the team's difficulties in scoring late in close games. The team has played in eight games this year that were decided by one score. In those games, they scored 40 total fourth-quarter points, equating to 5 per game — right on par with their season average of 4.7. Notably, among these one-score games, five of them saw the Patriots take a two-score lead in the second half and fail to put the game out of reach.

When examining the New England offense's statistical split by quarter, the universal drop in fourth-quarter efficiency is jarring; in the first three quarters the team achieves a yards per carry of 4.3 and yards per pass attempt of 9.2. These figures nosedive to 2.8 and 7.6, respectively, in the fourth quarter.

Given that most of the Patriots' 13 games to this point have been decided by a single score, it's reasonable to assume that these figures don't suffer from a limited sample size. Rather, this drop in offensive production seems to be the result of a conservative third-quarter offensive philosophy that completely disrupts any flow the offense achieves in the first 2.5 quarters, leaving the unit scrambling to find rhythm in unnecessarily high-pressure situations.

Red Zone Struggles

Perhaps one of the best microcosms of situational playcalling is red zone offense. In tight yardage situations where well-timed strategic playcalls reign supreme, elite playcallers tend to flourish. For this reason, consistently productive offenses that thrive due to scheme tend to be elite both outside and inside the red zone.

The Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, and Green Bay Packers are three of the best-schemed offenses in the league, ranking first, third, and eighth, respectively, in yards per play. Unsurprisingly, their red zone touchdown percentages are correspondingly high; the Packers have the second-highest red zone touchdown percentage in the league, while the Rams and Lions are tied for third.

Compare this to the New England offense. Though the seventh-best offense in yards per play, the team is ranked 24 in red zone touchdown percentage. This 17-position drop between non-red zone and red zone offense is the second biggest drop in the NFL, behind only the Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens.

In their past three games, the Patriots have played the fourth-, fifth-, and eighth-worst red zone defenses in the league. Through that three-game stretch, they have had the third-worst red zone scoring percentage. Lowlights have included a tragic goal-line scoring attempt against the Bengals, in which two incompletions, a penalty, and three stuffed runs prevented the team from scoring on six plays from the 1-yard line.

Goal-line stand by the Bengals defense. #Patriots get no points. New England ran six plays from the 1-yard line and couldn't score. That's not ideal.
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) November 23, 2025

The Bottom Line

New England is a really good team — elite, even. While the playcalling deficiencies have hampered them from reaching their full potential, the remainder of the schedule offers a legitimate challenge against the two most recent league MVPs. More likely than not, these games will be treated as playoff dress rehearsals. Fourth quarter and red zone offense are the bread and butter of a consistent playoff team, so these games should ideally give a clearer insight into the team's playcalling philosophies heading into the new year.

If the Patriots win out, which is a very conceivable reality, they would finish 15-2. At that point, it’s almost frustrating that their two losses were a complete lapse against a vastly inferior Las Vegas Raiders team and a heinously self-inflicted fumble-fest against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With this roster and schedule, there was genuine 17-0 potential.

Though this dialogue remains completely hypothetical, the promixity of it having become reality is a testament to how incredible the culture turnaround has been. Regardless of the final outcome, this season has been an undeniable success in Foxboro.

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