Patriots Get Promising Super Bowl Outlook After Bye

The New England Patriots are 11-2 after their Week 14 bye, and they are looking strong as ever as they prepare to face the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. With so little season left, the Pats are looking at the best chance to make the Super Bowl among the AFC.

The Patriots' Super Bowl chances are now the best in the AFC, per The Athletic, with a 32% chance of making it to the big game over the Broncos, who they predict with a 21% chance. The Broncos hold an identical 11-2 record, and the tiebreaker, but the NYT's model sees the Patriots as the stronger team with the weaker remaining schedule.

Both teams have an over 99% chance of making the playoffs by now, but the Patriots have made leaps and bounds since the preseason, rising from their 1% predicted chance at the Super Bowl then to their 32% now (the Broncos jumped from a 5% chance to their 21% chance).

The team has not been to a Super Bowl since 2019, a victory over the Los Angeles Rams that marked an end to the Patriots dynasty years. Now, just a pandemic later, they may be back on track.

Deja Vu All Over Again

Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes the ball during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

This version of the Patriots is earning comparisons to the early days of that Tom Brady/Belichick dynasty, and head coach Mike Vrabel's role on that team may be contributing to his success as their coach almost a quarter-century later.

"Vrabel is a modern version of Bill Belichick — understands all the fundamentals and is really good at situational football," an anonymous coach said on the Patriots' strength this season, via Mike Sando. "The difference is, Bill would never drop the red challenge flag like he's dropping a water balloon on his friend's toe."

"Bill never would win a challenge or have a big call on the field and motion for a first down on the sideline like he's Michael Irvin in the middle of the star."

Vrabel has been drawing these comparisons since he was hired, but the hype looks more warranted given this team's turnaround after their 4-13 2024 season.

“This is part of the reason I think Mike is and has been a great coach,” NFL analyst and former Patriots front office staffer Scott Pioli said of Vrabel back in January. "Because he empathizes and understands more feelings than someone who has never been in the shoes of a player."

Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel holds a challenge flag in his hand during the second quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

"That doesn’t mean he’s going to acquiesce to their demands. But he’s going to consider their feelings.”

The Patriots/Bills showdown is slated for 1pm, and the well-rested Pats will see what they can do against Josh Allen's 9-4 team. Even if they lose, their chances are promising. Their last two regular-season weeks have them up against the New York Jets (3-10) and Miami Dolphins (6-7).

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