3 & Out: Raiders’ Most Likely Wins and Losses in 2026

The Las Vegas Raiders' path next season is complicated, with multiple moving parts, including a first-year head coach and a completely new quarterback room, with Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza headlining the position.

Additionally, Las Vegas' schedule is daunting, with a large portion of the slate littered by consecutive challenges in an eight-week span. With all of that in mind, here are three games that should be penciled in as wins and three matchups that are likely to be losses for the Raiders in 2026.

Miami Dolphins: Win

Nov 12, 2025; Madrid, Spain; Miami Dolphins helmets on the field during practice at Estadio Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The NFL provided Las Vegas with a huge favor by having the Silver and Black open their season against the lowly Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium.

This should be an easy win for the Raiders, as head coach Klint Kubiak can start his tenure on the right foot.

New York Jets: Win

Jan 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn looks on during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

This will be Las Vegas' fourth road game of the season, in Week 9, but this should be a manageable win for the Silver and Black.

Unfortunately, the Raiders are very familiar with quarterback Geno Smith, who struggled in his lone season in Las Vegas, culminating in the franchise inheriting the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. However, he should return the favor by providing Las Vegas' defense with ample opportunities for interceptions.

Arizona Cardinals: Win

Jan 4, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) rolls out against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Arizona is one of the few teams in the league entering this upcoming season without a resolution at the quarterback position on the active roster.

By the time the Raiders face the Cardinals, which will be Week 17, Arizona will most likely be focused on positioning itself for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. This should be an easy win for Las Vegas, and Mendoza could be the starter by the time this matchup rolls around.

Buffalo Bills: Loss

Bills quarterback Josh Allen talks with offensive coordinator Joe Brady during the Buffalo Bills training camp Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2024 at St. John Fisher University. | Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While this game is at home, beating Josh Allen is a tall task for any team, and the Raiders simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bills.

Las Vegas' defense will have to keep the team within striking distance, but that is an unlikely outcome in this specific matchup.

Los Angeles Rams: Loss

Jan 25, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half in the 2026 NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Once again, in consecutive weeks, the Raiders find themselves in an impossible game to win, assuming that everyone is healthy on both sides entering this one.

The Rams' glaring weakness last season was an underwhelming secondary, which they solved in one swoop by acquiring cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson - both formerly of the Kansas City Chiefs - this offseason. Even if Los Angeles entered 2026 with the same issue, the Raiders don't possess the weapons to expose a weakened secondary.

Seattle Seahawks: Loss

Feb 8, 2026; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) runs the ball during the third quarter against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

If there is any silver lining, all of these games take place at Allegiant Stadium, but it will not matter against one of the best defenses in the league.

If Cousins is the starter by this point in the season, his lack of mobility could be thoroughly exposed. If Mendoza is starting, the rookie quarterback could be shell-shocked by an electrifying, violent defense with top-end talent at all three levels.

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