Best (and Worst) Case Scenario Season For 2026 Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins will kick off their regular season at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday at 1:25 pm Pacific on FOX. Both teams have new coaches and a bevy of young talent to manage this season, as the two franchises are facing rebuilding years.

The Raiders may have the highest ceiling of the two teams, especially with flashy head coach Klint Kubiak and a solidified future in the 2026 No. 1 overall pick and quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

Kubiak Raider — Aug 27, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak watches game play against the San Francisco 49ers during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The range of possibilities for what Las Vegas could be this year is endless, and if you're truly delusional, a surprise playoff run is never out of the question.

However, we must consider the realistic ceiling and floor of this team. With that in mind, let's look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Raiders' season.

Best Case Scenario

Las Vegas takes a major step forward, finishing 8-9

Mendoza Raider — Aug 27, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) on the field against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Trim-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I've heard from Raiders fans who saw my bold prediction that their team can win eight games. Yes, it sounds like a pipe dream considering the difficulty of the schedule (games against the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, and the rest of the AFC North twice), but I definitively believe this team's ceiling is eight victories, and it doesn't seem too far-fetched.

Even with the lack of a reliable outside weapon, the Raiders' offense with Kubiak's wide-zone system could be lethal when it comes to favorable quarterback play from either Kirk Cousins or Mendoza, a run game that could be terrific with a healthy Ashton Jeanty and rookie Mike Washington Jr, then the best tight-end duo in football with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.

Crosby Raider — Aug 27, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) looks on during player introductions before a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That's not all; while the Raiders are a younger team on both sides, their defense could be fun to watch, with their talented rookies in the secondary, Quay Walker at the second level, and Maxx Crosby off the edge. If everyone were to play to their ceiling in this instance, eight (or even nine) wins are on the table in Kubiak's first season.

Worst Case Scenario

Injuries and youth create a larger problem, stalling progression for the Raiders and finishing 3-14

You don't wish injuries on players or teams, period. However, it is an inevitable part of the sport, and injury bugs could destroy teams that are rebuilding, especially Las Vegas. They don't have the depth across the board to handle such an issue. The youth on the roster and a difficult schedule also make this worst-case scenario more likely than the best.

The three biggest areas of concern for the Raiders are wide receiver, defensive line, and offensive line, especially at the guard spots. If all three underwhelm, paired with learning the hard way against the mighty Rams, Seahawks, Bills, and more, finishing with a similar record to last year wouldn't do well for morale and optimism in 2027, though it could get them a star draft prospect such as South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart or Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

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