Why the Rams’ “Bill Coming Due” Narrative Keeps Missing the Mark

Whenever the Los Angeles Rams make a big trade, there is a common theme and narrative that consistently arises. In 2021, the Rams traded first-round picks for players such as Jalen Ramsey and Matthew Stafford and then also acquired Von Miller during the season for draft capital. Immediately, the narrative became that the Rams were all-in and the bill would eventually come due.

This offseason, the Rams traded first-round picks for cornerback Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett. Once again, the narrative has shifted to how the Rams are all-in and the bill is coming due, and the bottom is going to fall out.

Let's be clear here, The #Rams bill is absolutely coming. They just pushed the chips in for 2026.

Yes you can manipulate the cap and void years are kinda BS, IMO, but it isn't a myth. https://t.co/kobUqTwzIc
— Marcus Whitman (@TFG_Football) September 1, 2026

The Rams Have Been Here Before

When the Rams traded for Stafford, Ramsey, and Miller, it ended with a Super Bowl. The all-in approach from general manager Les Snead worked. While the Rams went 5-12 in 2022, it had little to do with the team-building process and more to do with the injuries that season.

In 2022, the Rams set the record for adjusted games lost on the offensive line. That would derail almost any team. The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles, who set the previous record, went 4-11-1.

On top of the injuries to the offensive line, the Rams were without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald for a majority of the season due to injuries. At the time, those were three of the Rams’ core players. At the bye week in 2022, the Rams were 3-3 before they lost nine of their last 11 games.

The bottom didn’t fall out, and when it was expected that it would, the Rams bounced back to make the playoffs. Yes, the Rams took on $73 million in dead money. However, they were able to mitigate that by hitting in the draft. During the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams’ front office selected players such as Kobie Turner, Byron Young, and Puka Nacua, leading to a quick turnaround.

It may be unrealistic to expect the Rams to have another historical, franchise-altering draft class like the 2023 class. With that said, the Rams’ cap situation also isn’t nearly as bad as it was heading into 2023. ‘

Why the Rams’ Cap Situation Isn’t a Major Concern

The Rams are currently set to have around $78 million in cap space heading into the 2027 offseason. That’s currently tied for the fifth-most in the NFL behind teams like the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and Arizona Cardinals, who are all in a rebuild. Looking ahead to 2028, the Rams will have $179.5 million in cap space.

That will certainly change as the Rams have to fill out the roster. Still, their cap health is very good. When the Rams could have pushed the bill down the line as the New Orleans Saints did, they instead paid it all out immediately.

The upcoming free-agent class will force the front office to make some difficult decisions. However, this is something that the team has planned for, and they have succession plans in place. This is a team that trusts its ability to develop talent.

The Free Agent Class Ahead

Over the next two years, the Rams will have $257 million in total cap space. However, they will have to make decisions on Byron Young, Steve Avila, Kevin Dotson, Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner, and Warren McClendon.

The Rams have succession plans in place for Young with Josaiah Stewart and McClendon with Keagen Trost. That’s not to say that the Rams won’t bring either player back, but it’s unlikely Young returns for his price. If the Rams bring back McClendon, they would likely move on from Alaric Jackson, who has an out in his contract.

Using Spotrac’s Market Value system, Nacua, Turner, Dotson, and Avila are projected to account for $105.5 million per year. The Rams can structure the contracts in a way where they front-load some and back-load others, but that’s generally how much the Rams will have to put aside for those players.

Why Ty Simpson is Key to Rams' Sustained Success

It’s also partially why the Rams drafted Ty Simpson. One of the biggest salary cap advantages is having a rookie quarterback. Since 2023, the Rams have had a veteran quarterback, but most of the core surrounding talent was on rookie deals. The Rams will essentially flip that when Stafford retires. They’ll have the advantage of a cheap quarterback with expensive talent around him.

Going back to the Saints example, the bill came due for them because they continued to use their credit card instead of simply paying it off. They lost their Hall of Fame quarterback without any real succession plan and then lost their top-level head coach.

As it stands, the Rams have Stafford’s succession plan in place, and there hasn’t been any indication that Sean McVay will stop coaching. There are always rumors that he’ll go to the media, but those haven’t been serious since after the 2022 season.

Rams Have Earned the Benefit of the Doubt

It looked bleak for the Rams after the 2022 season when they needed to reset their cap. However, the front office has set itself up much better this time. They aren’t having to restructure contracts and push things down the line. The front office has given themselves cap flexibility. There simply isn't a massive bill coming due for this roster.

Noah Kahan put it best in his song “Downfall”. “I’ll keep rooting for your downfall" has seemingly been the attitude toward the Rams and their aggressive approach to roster building. The problem is that everyone waiting for the bottom to fall out is still waiting.

Snead and Co. will still need to draft well, but they’ve shown the ability to identify talent in the middle and later rounds of the draft while the coaching staff has proven to develop those players.If there’s one franchise that has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to sustaining success, it’s the Rams. This is a franchise that has sustained success despite making just two first-round picks since 2016, with only one of those players remaining on the current roster.

As much as some may want to speak the Rams’ downfall into existence, they have the infrastructure and team-building philosophy to sustain success. While this is a team built to capitalize on the current Super Bowl window, they also haven’t mortgaged the future to the point where the bottom is going to fall out.

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