Lamar Jackson Is Running Less Than Ever. That Probably Needs To Change In Certain Scenarios

Should he run or should he throw?

It’s the timeless question with Lamar Jackson, one of the truly unique talents in the history of NFL quarterbacking, and as he approaches age 30 it is more salient than ever.

If he runs there could be trouble … and if he throws – in a Zay And Pray offense – it could be double. What impact will a 30-year-old, rookie offensive coordinator, who has never called a play before, working under a first-time head coach, have on this dynamic? With years of his body being built differently – training it a few years back more for a pounding and then more recently geared for speed – will that impact his instincts to take off?

Are More Designed Runs In Order?

With there having never been a Declan Doyle offense before, and with there being few comps in the history of the game for Lamar (and with Doyle’s coaching mentor, Sean Payton, not having worked with dual-threats approximating Lamar), there is guesswork involved. But it’s fair to anticipate that at age 29, Lamar is not going to be activating his legs downfield as much as he did at 23. And while he is likely to have far more autonomy than ever before (“Lamar has all the power,” as longtime QB and NFL analyst Phil Simms told me on “The Daily Flock Show”), will he trust his offensive line and downfield blocking enough to ramp up the scrambling and keepers in the option game?

What we do know is many of these metrics have been ticking down for years now – which is always going to be the case and why you should consider the same for Derrick Henry is his age 32 season. It is reasonable to suggest that Doyle and his staff best find ways to offset those developments, because I doubt Jackson is making more tacklers miss or tearing off more explosive runs or beating eight-man boxes in the miraculous ways he was back in say, 2019 as the human embodiment of Greg Roman’s run-game philosophies.

Lamar Then … Vs Now

Things began to shift for Lamar when Roman was let go after the 2022 season; injuries were starting to become more common, the passing concepts were dated and suspect and Todd Monken would change all of that with the QB winning a second MVP is quite different fashion than the first one. Baltimore also stopped shuffling running backs by committee and signed Henry, a future Hall of Famer, to lighten the load on their passer.

If you compare what Jackson did on the ground last year, to what he did for his four years as a full-time starter under Roman, it’s night and day. For starters, his opportunity rate (potential chances to use his legs vs times used per TruMedia) fell from 18% under Roman to a career-low 9.9% last year.

2025 Avg 2019-22

Yds/Opportunity 5.2 yds 6.45

Yds Before Contact 2.09 3.39

B-man Box YPC 1.4 4.7

1st Down YPC 4.6 5.5

Shotgun YPC 6.5 7.1

Tackle Avoid % 14.8 22.4

Success % 44.8 51.1

% Rushes w/miss tackle 13.4 19.0

That’s seismic differences. And much of it points to what was lost in the scheme, and declining individual talent and continuity along the offensive line. We’re never getting close to those 19-22 numbers again, not should we aspire to.

But there is certainly room for improvement and I continue to wonder if more looks with a true speed back (oh, like Keaton Mitchell who somehow fell into he hands of ultimate speed-merchant schematic wizard Mike McDaniel in LA) might help unlock more explosion in Jackson’s carries.

But that element doesn’t really exist here and if we look at Doyle’s work with Caleb Williams a year ago in Chicago, a decent-enough comp in athleticism and wiggle, there are some signs of life. Williams ran 7.2% of the time last year for 5.2 yards/opportunity (same as Lamar). Williams saw an 8-man box 26% of the time and averaged 2.2/rush when doing so despite a middling line (far above Lamar’s rate last season, despite him seeing an 8=man box only 19% of the time).

Williams exceeded Lamar in yards per scramble (8.4) and yard/shotgun rush (6.8). Some of this is invariably on Lamar, though the Ravens had a less-functional offensive line.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Well, no way are they scheming up Roman-levels of QB-keepers and ramping up the mesh point. Perhaps leaning more into RPO usage could help. The Ravens were 17th in RPO usage last season but their QBs averaged an NFL-best 10.8 yards/attempt out of those looks. Chicago ran just 54 of them (22nd) last year with Doyle on Ben Johnson’s staff, but Doyle’s mentor in Denver was top 10 in RPO usage for Bo Nix.

One thing Doyle may want to lean into more is Lamar’s legs in the redzone. We’re quantified how Henry suffered in short-yardage last year and the overall redzone issues (heightened by struggles in goal-to-go rushing). Forcing teams to account for and respect Jackson in these tight corridors seems in order.

Jackson had a career-low two goal line rushes last season (he had 31 in those four full seasons with G-Ro) and he had just two redzone TDs last year (13 with G-Ro).

Lamar ran less overall – missing time with injury – and ran less in the redzone, but despite Henry bogging down there and despite the OL issues, Jackson averaged a career-best 4.3 YPC in the redzone last season and his 42% first-down rate on RZ rushes was second-best in his career and he converted 80% of his third-down rushes in the RZ for a first down, tying his career high and averaged 3.0 yards before contract on RZ rushes, shattering his previous career high (he’s averaged 1.93 for his career).

Remember, he was at 2.09 yards before contact overall for the season in 2025.

We’ll be tracking the redzone tendencies and personnel groupings and ball carriers quite closely. After finishing 27th in RZ scoring and suffering inside the 10-yard line no matter what they did, change is in order.

Perhaps less Lamar galloping between the 20s, but more designed attempts the closer they get to paydirt.

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