Ravens Are 10-12 When LB Trenton Simpson Plays At Least 20 Snaps On D. He Might Have To Play 60 On Sunday

In his grand design, Ravens rookie head coach Jesse Minter would have linebacker Trenton Simpson in a nuanced role, out on the edge, in space, able to see ball and hunt ball in certain personnel packages without getting him isolated in coverage.

That won’t be the case Sunday, when Minter coaches his first NFL game. It will be anything but that.

With All-Pro defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) and potential impact linebacker Teddye Buchanan (ACL) both ruled out – as we told you was virtually certain to be the case over a week ago - Simpson stands to be among the players most tested and targeted by Colts quarterback Daniel Jones in Week 1; Jones will go at him in coverage, buoyed by how Aaron Rodgers picked on Simpson in Week 18 in Pittsburgh.

And Simpson is playing next to $20M middle linebacker Roquan Smith, who was bad last year and not great in 2024. Neither is good in coverage, Jones throws the ball within five yards of the line of scrimmage as much as anyone in the NFL, and Simpson’s instincts against the run are also going to come into immediate focus with elite back Jonathan Taylor running the football.

"I feel really good about him," head coach Jesse Minter said on Simpson in late August. "He is an extremely versatile, athletic linebacker that's got a lot of great traits. He can do a lot for us. He can line up in a lot of different places.”

A Tall Order From Week 1

Minter, whose first injury report looked good otherwise, is a mastermind, and maybe he’ll fix Simpson … But I suspect what he actually realized after three rough years in the league is that Simpson is not the every-down linebacker he was drafted to be. He is not the Patrick Queen replacement, and general manager Eric DeCosta grossly overhyped this mid-round pick the way he does a lot of them. He’s not very good at day two draft picks, and the linebackers/edge results have been utterly pathetic.

This is hardly the ideal match-up to have Simpson bled in this heavily, this soon.

But the Ravens have also known for months that Madubuike and Buchanan had almost no chance to play in this game and to prepare for those contingencies, so no excuses, either way. Simpson has heard the consistent buzz around him all camp, and the former third-round pick out of Clemson is a great kid and has some special athletic traits and had poor defensive structures around him, so there is certainly potential to progress.

In the past he tends to over-pursue at times, or not trust what he was initially diagnosing. Finding a steady level between those extremes would be a great step.

"I could say honestly this offseason I focused on film study,” Simpson said this summer. “Making sure I take another approach to the game mentally, knowing the ins and outs of what to expect from the offense, and then just being confident, being me, playing fast, physical football and just being prepared."

When Minter played the Colts last season, Jones gutted him on short passes - 15/18 for 140 yards and two touchdowns (136.5 rating) throwing less than five yards downfield. He is an expert on bootlegs and waggles, drawing in linebackers and toying with them, and the Colts also have a catalogue of under-center runs and play action that will challenge Simpson.

Oh, and if Smith isn’t a totally revamped version of last year’s model then Simpson could really be in trouble.

Simpson was eased in his rookie year, expected to be an impact guy year two and ended up back on special teams late in the season and that’s where he stayed until a bad defense got quite thin late last season and he was thrust back into heavy rotation. Buchanan was a rare bright spot on the defense but his season as cut short with an ACL tear, and while Simpson did have two tackles for loss against New England late in the season, he struggled as well. Rodgers attacked him in the final game with the season on the line, completing five of seven passes and taking off and running for big gains, too, somehow.

Jones excels in the quick passing game and even coming off a torn Achilles is infinitely more mobile than Rogers now. The Ravens are 10-12 when Simpson plays at least 20 snaps on defense, and he’s in line to play way more than that Sunday, especially with Minter needing to be judicious about how much nickel and dime defense he deploys.

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