Sportsbooks Bullish On Ravens Win Totals, But Not Their Offensive Production

The sportsbooks are as high on the Ravens than any team from a win total standpoint and what looks like a smooth schedule only fortified the high opinion of what Jesse Minter can accomplish in his rookie season as a head coach.

And, with the markets for player props just forming, it seems pretty obvious that Vegas is basing that lofty win total – tied for the highest in football with the Rams at FanDuel – and the strong odds to win the division and go to the Super Bowl based on Minter side of the ball. The defense.

Because those team projections are connected to emerging individual markets that are quite pedestrian in their overall expectations. Defensive player props and team props aren’t significant markets, so we won’t be privy to many of those projections from the algorithms that produce these gambling price points, but it seems that expectations for rookie offensive coordinator Decan Doyle, who has never called a play, are pretty tepid.

Even a cursory look at what is being projected for quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derick Henry and the two pass catchers who you can bet on now (receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews doesn’t portend for this to be an offense producing anything close to the yardage and points they racked up at their peak under former coordinator Todd Monken.

Jackson

There are some questions to be asked about what system Doyle will run and how quickly he can connect with the two-time MVP QB and how that relationship gels. Keeping Jackson healthy at this stage of his career and navigating how much he runs the football are challenges as well. Oh, and they’d best get him extended before Week 1.

FanDuel has him throwing for 3225 yards, which, if it feels like for someone who can light it up for 4000 and who had a running back nearing the end, well that’s because it is. There are 32 quarterback props available at that book right now and 18 players have higher totals than Jackson. The only four who do not – first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza (not expected to start Week 1), 43-year old Aaron Rodgers, Jaxson Dart (his own injury concerns in year two and with a new staff to work with) and slight Bryce Young.

That’s it.

Jackson is projected for 24.5 touchdown passes which is the range that almost every above average starting quarterback is being placed in. They have Jackson projected for a fairly middling season. (I’d go over on the yardage, FWIW). And that in part could have plenty to do with an offensive line that’s still begging major questions at center and because the group of pass catchers seems suspect to many …

Flowers And Andrews

Flowers, coming off a season in which he was a top 10 receiver in most key yardage metrics (scoring touchdowns is a different story). FanDuel has him at 1000 yards and some other markets have him at 975. Either would be a dropoff, which is telling at a time there is no ascending talent around him whom anyone could be particularly high on.

It’s not like the Ravens drafted a pass catcher in the first two rounds.

Flowers posted 1211 receiving yards last season in a season in which he was the only viable downfield option and the only player really commanding attention. And that was a year in which Jackson was injured and not as effective as usual. He had 1059 the prior year when the offense was historically significant and 858 as a rookie.

This is not a ringing endorsement for a potent and highly prolific passing attack.

Andrews is projected for 475 yards and even that might be a reach. There is no explosion there, every metric for him is trending in a horrible direction (8.8 yards per catch, really?) and no Isaish Likely is going to end up being a problem for this offense. Expecting big and consistent production from two rookie receivers and two rookie tight ends is risky, and it doesn’t feel like from these numbers that Vegas is feeling it.

Henry

He has been the ultimate unicorn at a position where players get their age called into question around 28. And for as many carries as Henry takes on, and how abrasive a running style as he embraces, coming up on 3000 career carrier a age 32, I’m surprised his total is as high as it is (1250.5).

Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, just 30 running backs have had at least 100 carries in their age 32 seasons and one (Walter Payton, arguably the best ever) surpassed this total (1333). None of the numbers over 55 years of age 32 running back data paints a rosy picture.

Expecting Henry to rush the ball 300 times for a third straight year – or close to it – probably courts disaster and thinking he will rip off 5.5 yards per carry is crazy. He ran for 1595 yards a year ago, once again defying Father Time, but Vegas expects that reaper to creep much closer this season and I agree.

And despite all of that, Henry’s rushing projection is currently the highest on the board at FanDuel (tied for Jonathan Taylor of the Colts). A unicorn til the end.

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