What are Klint Kubiak's Chances of Success in Super Bowl LX Based on Recent History?

Klint Kubiak has had at least a part of his two-week leadup to the Super Bowl occupied by thoughts of becoming the head man in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan talks with safety Ricardo Allen (37). | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

With it all-but-confirmed that the Las Vegas Raiders are just waiting until after the Super Bowl to hire Klint Kubiak away, Seahawks fans are understandably disappointed that the team will lose their highly-successful offensive coordinator after just one season. But there’s also the question of what effect this might have on the team in Super Bowl LX.

On some level, a bit of concern is warranted. We know that Josh McDaniels has spent the last week, and will spend the next week, locked in on beating the Seattle defense. While Kubiak’s interviews with the Raiders (and Cardinals) only occupied a small percentage of his time this last week, it’s definitely bigger than zero percent. And that’s suboptimal.

It’s impossible to speculate on what the actual effect this will have on Kubiak’s performance and Seattle’s offensive performance next Sunday. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And there’s no guarantee that the performance, good or bad, will have had anything to do with Kubiak interviewing with other teams in the last few days. So, let’s turn to history.

Kubiak is far from the first offensive coordinator to get whisked away to a head coaching gig immediately following coaching in a Super Bowl. Nor is he the first one to have interviewed and have effectively locked up said head coaching opportunity before the game was even played. This is part of the process in the NFL, and a minefield successful teams must maneuver.

Let’s go over the recent history of offensive coordinators who got promised head coaching spots before participating in a Super Bowl, to try to understand what effect this sort of thing typically has on coaches. And we don’t have to go back far at all to find a premiere example of this kind of thing.

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Super Bowl LIX: Kellen Moore

Less than a year ago, Kellen Moore was the offensive coordinator on the Philadelphia Eagles, helping guide the team to the big game in his first year on the squad. By the time the Super Bowl started, however, Moore already pretty much knew that it would also be his last year in Philly, as the Saints had zeroed in on him as their new head coach.

Moore had conducted a virtual interview with the Saints on January 18th, the day before the Eagles beat the Rams in the divisional round, and then done an in-person one in the couple of days following the Philadelphia beatdown of Washington in the NFC Championship Game. It was widely understood that he was their man, and he surely knew it as well.

The Eagles would win Super Bowl LIX in blowout fashion, going up 34-0 at one point and ultimately taking it 40-22. Even if you remove the Cooper DeJean interception returned for a touchdown from the tally, the Eagles offense put up 33 points on the elite Kansas City defense, to go with 345 yards and 0.093 EPA per play when garbage time is excluded.

Philly’s defense stole the show, but Jalen Hurts played one of the best games of his career as the Eagles cruised to an easy victory. If Moore was distracted during this game, you wouldn’t have been able to figure it out by watching it.

Super Bowl LVII: Shane Steichen

Steichen was not the only coordinator on the Eagles who knew he was coaching his final game in Philly during Super Bowl LVII. Jonathan Gannon had a foot out the door on the way to Arizona, just as Steichen knew his future was in Indianapolis. He interviewed with them initially during Philly’s bye week after the regular season, and then did a second before the bowl.

He would be hired two days after the game, so he certainly knew the job was his, and it was common knowledge that it was the most likely outcome. Steichen was great in that game, racing out to a 24-14 halftime lead and ultimately posting up 35 points, including over 300 yards through the air and 100 on the ground. The offensive EPA of 0.131 was also quite strong.

It wasn’t enough, as Gannon’s defense allowed 38 points, getting zero sacks and zero turnovers, so perhaps we can say that one of the coordinators was negatively affected by the distraction. But Steichen wasn’t, as Philly played about as well as they had played all season with the ball in their possession.

For whatever it’s worth, Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy departed Kansas City shortly after this game for an Assistant Head Coach position with the Commanders. It doesn’t seem like he had interviewed with them until after the game was over, so I’m not going to count that here, particularly in that Bieniemy doesn’t call plays for the Chiefs’ offense.

Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen against the Arizona Cardinals. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Super Bowl LVI: Kevin O’Connell

A little bit of a weird one, since Sean McVay calls the plays in Los Angeles, leaving O’Connell’s impact and relevance on the offense during his time there a bit of an unknown. However, it is known that KOC interviewed with the Vikings on January 21st, then again on January 31st, so he almost certainly knew what was going to happen well before the big game.

It wasn’t a banner day for the Rams offense in the Super Bowl, in fairness. Matt Stafford threw multiple interceptions, took multiple sacks, and only mustered 23 points. The Rams were inept running the ball, averaging less than two yards a carry. They managed 313 yards against a mediocre Bengals defense. The team had a negative EPA per play for the game.

They still managed to win, mostly on the back of the defense shutting the Bengals down when they needed to, but the Rams did come up with the game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. I don’t know if this one counts, but if it does, you wouldn’t call it great.

Super Bowl LII: Frank Reich

This one doesn’t count. Although Reich was very much aware that there was interest in him as a head coach after an excellent season as the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, he intentionally sat out the interview process until after the Super Bowl was over. Reich had an incredible Super Bowl performance, but wasn’t sure what his fate was at that point.

Super Bowl LI: Kyle Shanahan

One of the most famous examples of this ever. The San Francisco 49ers conducted an initial interview with Falcons’ Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan a month before the Super Bowl, did another the week before the big game, and it was public knowledge that he was going to get that job. He was hired the day after the Super Bowl.

On the one hand, Shanahan’s offense put up some decent numbers in that Super Bowl. 21 points, 344 yards, 7.5 yards per play, ultra-efficient passing and running, 0.106 EPA per play, all against the number one defense in football. It was a performance that would impress and satisfy most people. But that’s not what anyone remembers about this game.

The Falcons scored a touchdown to go up 28-3 with 8:31 to go in the third quarter, and then proceeded to not score again as the defense blew play after play. The Atlanta possessions went three-and-out, fumble, punt, punt, resulting in one of the most famous comebacks in the history of American sports, the Patriots winning 34-28 in overtime.

Did the distraction of the 49ers offering him their head coaching job contribute to that late-game failure? If so, what can be said about their tremendous success earlier in the game against the best defense in the league? These are the things that football fans debate about, but never reach a definite resolution on. You’ll have to come to your own conclusions.

Ultimately, coordinators getting pulled into the interview process for head coaching jobs is just part of having good coordinators. Unless you can find a very specific one that’s already washed out to the point of convincing people that he doesn’t have what it takes for the top job, it’s going to happen. But clearly, several coaches in recent history were able to deal with it well.

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak looks on against the Las Vegas Raiders. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

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