Sam Darnold finally gets credit for massive improvement in NFL analyst's QB rankings

Darnold went from Tier 4 to Tier 3 and from 29th to 20th overall in Mike Sando's annual quarterback tier rankings at The Athletic.

Feb 6, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Sam Darnold and Katie Hoofnagle on the red carpet before Super Bowl LIX NFL Honors at Saenger Theatre. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Nothing is more dangerous to quality analysis than your priors. Your first impression of a quarterback may get stuck in your head long after that quarterback has evolved into something entirely different. What matters is being able to watch a QB play and see him as he his in the moment, disregarding any impression you may have had in the past.

If you can do that, you'll see that Sam Darnold has graduated into a far, far better QB than he was early in his career. Unfortunately, a lot of analysts are still stuck on the version of Darnold they saw in his first few years with the Jets. Ironically, that's the exact same problem a lot of folks had with the guy Darnold replaced as the Seattle Seahawks' starter.

Just as Geno Smith is now nothing like the QB he was in 2013-2014, Darnold does not remotely resemble the QB he was in 2018-2020 during his run with the Jets. Those who are paying attention recognize that - including Mike Sando from the Athletic, who's released his annual QB Tier rankings.

That's where Darnold has made the biggest jump of any quarterback in the league from last year. Sando had Darnold in Tier 4 at No. 29 going into the 2024 campaign - now he's in Tier 3 and ranked No. 20 overall - tied with Bo Nix among projected starters. Sando defines Tier 3 QBs as follows:

Jun 11, 2025; Renton, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball during mini-camp at Virginia Mason Athletic Center. | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Sam Darnold makes Tier 3

"A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best."

We think there's a case that Darnold has actually graduated all the way to Tier 2, but those last two starts with Minnesota last season did some real damage to the perception of his game. Credit Sando for not allowing them to hold Darnold down near the bottom as so many analysts have. It's good to see Darnold actually get the credit he deserves for the remarkable improvement he showed.

Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers also took a big jump, leaping eight spots year over year, followed by Bryce Young from the Panthers, who rose four spots from last year.

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