Texans' Recent History vs. Bills Spells Trouble for Josh Allen in Week 1

The Houston Texans are less than a week away from kicking off their 2026 NFL season on their home field at Reliant Stadium–– marking the end of a long offseason's wait to begin what could be a historic campaign for this talented roster.

And to begin the Texans' 2026 season, they'll be up against a squad that they've actually taken down pretty consistently within their last handful of matchups: the Buffalo Bills, headlined by their superstar quarterback, Josh Allen.

Josh Allen Looking to Claim Second-Ever Win Against Texans

From Allen's perspective, the Texans are one of the few teams that he's routinely struggled against throughout his eight-year career thus far. And when taking a step back, the four-time Pro Bowler hasn't struggled against many.

Houston is just one of two teams against whom Allen has a losing record, collecting a 1-4 record in their five matchups to this point. The Bills' only win of their last five came in 2021; the season in which the Texans lost 13 total games, led by head coach David Culley.

That game has actually wound up as Allen's best performance against the Texans, where he completed 20 of 30 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception en route to a 40-0 blowout.

Oct 3, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the ball as Houston Texans cornerback Terrance Mitchell (39) defends during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

Every other occurrence where these two squads have met up, though? Things haven't looked as seamless for Allen and Co.

When adding up all four of Allen's games against Houston outside of that 2021 matchup, his stats are pretty funky: a 52.7% completion rate on over 100 throws, 732 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. The Texans defense has also sacked him a grand total of 14 times in those four losses.

Of course, a large chunk of those 14 total sacks comes from the last time these two matched up: their Thursday Night Football outing in Week 12 of last season, where the Texans' elite defense stole the show in a 23-19 victory that also resulted in a total of eight sacks on Allen.

Now, less than a year later, the Bills are coming back to the Texans' home field with hopes of getting a bit of sweet revenge early into the season.

Could the Texans Have a Repeat of Last Year's Matchup?

However, now as the Texans are set to come back into Houston, it's fair to question whether or not this year's showing could end up looking eerily similar to what 2025's had in store.

It is a brand-new season, and for the Bills, they'll be entering into it with a fresh coaching mind at the helm in Joe Brady. Maybe his approach and a few roster tweaks from the offseason could lead Buffalo to a more positive result than their past two Texans meetings.

The Texans, though, look like a largely similar group to last year. Houston brought all of their defensive starters back for another year, added even more talent on that side, as well as the offense with their front line and backfield improvements.

Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes against Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On paper, and based on past precedent, Houston looks like they have the edge in this one-off first glance.

One key difference will be in place when compared to last season: C.J. Stroud will be suiting up and ready to go as the Texans' starting signal-caller, who's only played one game against the Bills throughout his three-year NFL career. Last season, he missed out due to his mid-season concussion absence.

So far, Stroud is 1-0 against this Bills team. Yet adding another win to that record, continuing their Buffalo domination, and adding a victory to the Texans' 2026 regular season slate after Week 1 would be a pretty perfect way to start off the new year for everyone in Houston.

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