Why Texans' C.J. Stroud Would Reject $45 Million Per Year Right Now

Much of the recent discussions following the draft around the Houston Texans have centered on the status of quarterback C.J. Stroud and what his upcoming contract extension might look like.

Coming fresh off of seeing his draft classmate, Will Anderson, ink a $150 million deal just last month, naturally, the attention turns to what's next for Houston's signal-caller and second-overall pick.

Stroud could logically be in line for his own deal as well, and perhaps in the weeks before the 2026 season kicks off, considering he's also extension-eligible, just like Anderson was.

However, the market revolving around Stroud and his next contract is a bit dicey, as his latest two-year sample size tends to make his valuation a bit tougher than a typical franchise quarterback.

Oct 20, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) warms up prior to the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

He's not worth market-setting money, but will also be set for a noteworthy pay raise from his rookie deal, and his fifth-year option of $25 million. So if he were to be extended this offseason, his value sits somewhere in the middle.

If that extension were worth, let's say, $40-45 million a year, though, signs seem to point towards Stroud and his camp turning that type of money down.

According to ESPN's Bien-Aime, while one NFC executive has said he would offer $42 to $45 million a year for Stroud on an extension this offseason, he notes that the same executive feels that contract would be declined.

"Offer [C.J. Stroud] something like top 8-12 [QB] money,' an NFC executive said. 'I'd try to give him a three-year extension at like $42-45 million per year now.'... The NFC executive believes Stroud and his management team -- led by agent David Mulugheta of Athletes First -- would reject the 8-12 deal. The executive said he would be willing to increase the offer to strike a deal, and if that failed, just prepare to use the franchise tag if needed in 2028."

For example, Stroud landing a contract on the low end of that top 8-12 quarterback range would be nearing Patrick Mahomes' annual value of $45 million.

That's pretty solid quarterback money. Though when asking around the league, such an offer might not be the most realistic for Stroud and his representation to accept.

But why?

Why Stroud Might Decline a Texans Extension This Offseason

The Texans certainly could come to terms on a new deal for Stroud before next season gets underway. However, it has to be at a rate that adds up from a long-term perspective.

Stroud's upcoming extension, if signed this offseason or anytime after, wouldn't kick in until the 2028 season. He's got two more years left on his rookie salary before the bill comes due for that pay raise.

That means, in the time that Stroud will be waiting for that upcoming deal to kick in, the NFL's cap and quarterback valuations will only be increasing––to the point where a contract around $40-45 million annually would be a bargain deal for a starting signal caller by the time it arrives in 2028.

Stroud, who's eyeing a chance to maximize his value in 2026 after a bumpy past two years, would only be selling himself short of making a lot more money on his next deal, in the event he were to sign a lower-valued offer today.

CJ Stroud looking slimmed down this off season 👀 pic.twitter.com/lyQKepp8a1
— Tomorrow’s Retro (@tomorrowsretro) May 2, 2026

In reality, Stroud likely would be better off by playing out year four of his deal without an extension, then hitting the negotiation table again in 2027, or, if the Texans were really eager to get a deal done, could agree to a number this offseason that accounts for the annual growth of the league's cap.

As to what that number could be to tempt Stroud and his representation to sign this offseason? It'd be hard to see that annual number not start with a five, and could even be in the mid-50s. That would settle him in as top-10 paid player for the position.

Oct 26, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs in the pocket during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sean Thomas-Imagn Images | Sean Thomas-Imagn Images

That'd be a steep investment to make under center. There's no doubt about it. And if the Texans were to sign Stroud to that deal this offseason just for his growth to keep looking as it has since his rookie year, that type of money on the books could start to look really scary, and fast.

But with the quarterback market at the premium it is today, and how the Texans have operated in paying their stars early with big numbers, it's at least an option for Houston to consider as they navigate some choppy waters around the future of their second-overall pick from three years ago.

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