My Two Cents: Titans' AFC South Rivals Big Part of Drama on Draft Night
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Even with an expanded NFL postseason, the easiest and best path to the playoffs for the Tennessee Titans is to win the AFC South. It's the easiest road because it's the worst division in football.
And these days, it's not even close.
We only have to go back to the last game of the season a year ago to see how easy it is to win the AFC South. The Titans were brutally bad during the second half of the season, losing six straight games prior to their season finale on Jan. 7 with the Jaguars in Jacksonville, not winning a game since mid-November.
Despite all those troubles, all they had to do was win that last game to clinch a division title with an 8-9 record. Instead, they stubbed their toe a seventh straight time and lost 20-16 to the upstart Jags.
Jacksonville and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft — went to the playoffs instead, and the bruised and battered Titans went home. They watched the Jags on TV, and saw them beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the first round before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs, the eventual Super Bowl champion.
It's a new AFC South now, for sure. The Jaguars claimed just their second AFC South crown in the 21 years of this current division structure, and they are the favorite to do it again. And why? Because the Titans, who won division crowns in 2020 and 2021 — and two others in 2002 and 2008 — along with the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans have all become pretty miserable at the same time.
There's a reason why the Texans are picking No. 2 in the 2023 NFL Draft that starts on Thursday night here in Kansas City. They stunk last year. And the Colts are picking No. 4 for the same reason. They stunk, and with no excuse. The Texans were supposed to struggle, and they did. The Colts were picked to win the division and imploded. They're a mess right now, and need lots of fixing.
The Titans, of course, aren't far behind. They're sitting on a seven-game losing streak right now and finished 7-10 a year ago. They are a team in transition, most certainly, and they pick No. 11 in the first round.
Maybe.
That's why tonight is going to be crazy, because there could very well be a flurry of trades with these valuable first-round picks. And what makes it interesting is that these bitter AFC South rivals might all be trying to screw each other.
Houston has a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans. The Titans have a new general manager in Ran Carthon, and the two of them spent a lot of time together in San Francisco the past few years. There are ties there.
Arizona has the third pick, and their general manager is Monte Ossenfort, who used to work for the Titans. That's an easy phone call, too.
But do you really want to help your division rivals?
Houston has desperate quarterback needs, and when you have the second pick in a draft with two NFL-ready quarterbacks, you're in good shape. But in the last week or so, the draft stock on Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud has been slipping and there's plenty of talk now that the Texans may not take a quarterback.
That surprises me, because I've covered the Big Ten for four years before relocating to Nashville, and I think C.J. Stroud is for real. He's got a big arm, is athletic enough and does a great job of reading defenses.
So if the Texans don't take him, they may very be giving a division rival their starting quarterback for a decade or more, a guy they'll have to beat twice a year going forward.
But which one?
The Colts desperately need a quarterback, too, and I thought for sure they would have been more aggressive in dealing with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick so they could get the guy they wanted. They didn't, and the Bears made a deal with the Carolina Panthers instead.
Still sitting at No. 4, there's going to be a quarterback available then, but there's a lot of concern that Kentucky's Will Levis and Florida Anthony Richardson are still too raw to start from day one. The Colts, who have messed up the draft — and overall roster management — often the past few years, have been vague about which quarterback they like the most.
And then there are the Titans. They don't normally pick this high — they haven't picked so early since they took wide receiver Corey Davis in 2017 with the fifth-overall pick — and they definitely have quarterback needs of their own. Ryan Tannehill, who's 35 years old, is in the last year of his contract. There is zero chance of him being in Nashville beyond 2023, and Malik Willis did not impress in his rookie season a year ago.
It's very possible that the Colts prefer Stroud over all the other quarterbacks, and the Titans can screw them — which is a good thing in AFC South wars — by trading up to No. 3 with Arizona and grabbing Stroud before the Colts can get him.
Where there's smoke, there's fire and this talk about the Titans moving up to No. 3 to get Stroud seems viable. ESPN draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay both released their final mock drafts on Thursday morning and BOTH had the Titans trading up to No. 3 to get Stroud.
The Texans would let that happen? Sure looks like it.
And the Titans would poke the Colts by trading up ahead of them? Absolutely. They know that winning the three-team quarterback derby on Thursday is a big deal. If the Titans walk away with Stroud — an Ohio State guy like Titans coach Mike Vrabel — they will be the big winners in the AFC South on Thursday.
The Titans have a lot of holes to fill, so giving up draft capital to move up hurts, too. That's obvious. As I said, I love Stroud and think he's going to be a very good NFL quarterback. I'm not as sold on Levis and Richardson, and am certain that they both need some seasoning for sure.
So it's going to be interesting to see what the Texans do at No. 2, and what happens with that No. 3 pick the Cardinals own. Who trades up? Is it the Titans? Who drops back, grabs draft depth and then moves back up?
In my gut, I have a good feeling that this is going to be a wild Thursday night with all sorts of movement throughout the night. The Titans are very likely to be right in the mix with all of that.
So bring it on. Can't wait for my night of wildness in Kansas City.
Related Titans draft stories
- AFC SOUTH CHAMPS YEAR-BY-YEAR: There have been 21 division champions since the AFC South was formed in 2002, with the Jacksonville Jaguars winning the most recent title in 2022. The Tennessee Titans have won four division titles, and the Indianapolis Colts lead the way with nine. CLICK HERE
- CHASING THEIR QB: The Tennessee Titans may be aiming to make a trade up the board with the Arizona Cardinals in an attempt to do “everything they can” to get their quarterback in the 2023 NFL draft according to ESPN’s Dianna Russini. CLICK HERE
- NEW STADIUM UPDATE: The Tennessee Titans and the city of Nashville are getting a new stadium, but the cost is high. CLICK HERE
- TOM BREW COLUMN: The Tennessee Titans currently own the No. 11 pick in the first round of Thursday night's NFL Draft. They have plenty of needs, including a quarterback of the future. Do they move up to get one, or wait and hope? General manager Ran Carthon has done his due diligence, which should make for a ton of drama. CLICK HERE
