Experts Picking Texans Over Titans Reveal Exactly How Tennessee Can Win

The experts may once again be picking against the Titans, but their projected scores may hint at the key to Tennessee's first victory.

Oct 4, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Solomon Thomas (90) warms up before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's become a minor tradition for our coverage of expert picks to report the worst possible news. Yet again, heading into Week 5, the NFL's Preview Picks are 10-0 in favor of the visiting Houston Texans. This is the second straight week that Tennessee doesn't have a single projected win in the preview.

Although, this time around, these picks have one expectation in common. The Texans score between 23-27 points, and the Titans score between 10-17. Six of the 10 picks fall within this fair range. While only two see Tennessee keeping this contest in the single digits, this board of predictions may reveal just how the Titans can find their first win this week.

It's clear that Houston is expected to win by the merits of their offense. C.J. Stroud is coming off his second game of the year throwing more than 340 yards, and the Texans their second game scoring 30 points as a unit. That came in a loss - like Tennessee, Houstin is 0-4.

Now, head coach DeMeco Ryans did just take up defensive play-calling duties to try and improve the Texans' defense. But no matter how you spin it, the offense is what has brought Houston within striking distance this year.

If Robert Saleh can outmatch Ryans and shut Stroud, Nico Collins, David Montgomery and company down, the Titans may actually have a favorable shot at home.

Oct 4, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Tennessee Titans head coach Robert Saleh looks on during warmups before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Robert Saleh's defense is the key to a Titans victory

This isn't just a "score more points than the other team" sort of plea. Week 5 could serve as the perfect crossroads for the Titans. Cam Ward just had the best game of his season against the Baltimore Ravens last week, coming on late and feeding rookie Carnell Tate to no end.

Ward still has plenty of room to improve, but he took a few strides that we've been waiting to see. Another (even small) leap from the offense paired with a sturdy defensive showing could mix the right formula to serve the Texans a defeat.

Per PFF, Houston's 109 points allowed is tied for 26th in the NFL. Their 84 points scored are only good for 20th, but the Texans have scored 19 or more in three of their four games. There's a wide gap between offense and defense right now, and it's one Saleh has to try and exploit.

With both teams looking for their first divisional win, and win in general, the stakes will be boiling over in Nashville this Sunday. If Tennessee can keep Stroud's passing game in relative check, perhaps Ward and the offense have had enough time to make good on some of their potential.

Perhaps the Titans can finally grab a victory, even if Robert Saleh's playoff hopes remain in question.