Vikings Trade Up for J.J. McCarthy in SI's New Mock Draft

This is a strong return — probably unrealistically so — for Minnesota.

The scenario laid out in a new mock draft from SI.com's Matt Verderame — the Vikings trading up to No. 4 overall to select J.J. McCarthy — is not a novel or surprising one. What makes this proposed trade interesting is the package Minnesota gets back from Arizona. Verderame has the Vikings sending picks 11 and 23 to the Cardinals for picks 4, 66, and 104.

This feels like a good time to remind everyone about the concept of the "quarterback tax." When you look at the Rich Hill trade chart, this deal feels fair. Picks 11 and 23 are worth a combined 603 points on that chart, while picks 4, 66, and 104 are worth a combined 600 points. But the trade charts don't really matter when you're negotiating a move up the board, especially into the top five, for a quarterback. That's the idea of the QB tax.

The Cardinals have the majority of the leverage in negotiations with the Vikings, who clearly want to move up for their QB of the future after letting Kirk Cousins walk in free agency. If they're sensing that Minnesota is somewhat desperate to jump up and get McCarthy, they should be able to get a much stronger return in that trade. A deal that feels far more realistic is something along the lines of the Vikings sending 11, 23, and their 2025 third-rounder for the No. 4 pick by itself (and even that might not be enough for Arizona). Keep in mind that when the 49ers moved from 12 to 3 for Trey Lance in 2021, they also sent the Cardinals two future first-rounders and a future second.

The fascinating thing about this draft is that if the Vikings want to trade up into the top five, it's going to cost quite a bit. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has to decide just how much he's willing to pay, compared to the alternative of staying put and taking QB5 or QB6.

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