Coller: Breaking Down Whether the 2-0 Vikings Are Good or Simply Lucky

Some teams are good to be lucky, others are lucky to be good. Where do the Purple and Gold fall?

Sports Illustrated's Matthew Coller dives into whether this year's Vikings are legit or if their undefeated start is nothing more than a mirage. | Images Courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

The way we remember football games is pretty simple: we vividly recall everything that went right for the team that won and forget everything that went wrong. 

That has pretty much been the story in terms of analyzing the 2-0 Vikings.

There has been a boatload of attention on the performance of the defense and Dallas Turner’s ascent to stardom in the first two weeks. There has been endless praise for defensive coordinator Brian Flores. There has been a spotlight on Carson Wentz’s fill-in performance and lack of turnovers and there’s been widespread celebration of the fact that head coach Kevin O’Connell has run the ball with conviction. 

There has been less discussion about the fact that the Vikings only rank ahead of the Falcons in terms of passing yards per game thus far. Or their 29th-place ranking in first downs, 25th in rush yards per attempt or 25th-ranked in yards allowed on defense. 

The sustainability of the ways in which they have won isn’t being talked about much either. Opponents have gone just 1-for-7 in red-zone touchdowns against the Vikings through two games, which is an impossible rate to keep up. Last year, they were the No. 2 red-zone defense, allowing a 42.9% touchdown rate. 

DC Brian Flores has played a key role in the Vikings' early success, especially in the red zone. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s very hard to repeat strip sacks at the opponent’s goal line, fumbles forced as Chicago was about to score, blocked field goals or penalties that sustain drives like what happened against Green Bay late in the game, or 68-yard kick returns and so forth. 

Basically, if the Vikings played 100 games the same way that they did vs. Green Bay and Chicago, we could not expect a high percentage of those to come out with wins. 

Does that mean it’s 2022 all over again? Are the Vikings a paper tiger? Have they just gotten lucky? 

Not exactly. 

Vikings are good (but they're also benefiting from some luck)

We can parse out the things that are and aren't sustainable for the Vikings going forward, and the likelihood of improvements in certain areas to keep winning.

That conversation begins with the defense. Certainly, the Vikings won’t be able to stop opposing offenses on six of every seven trips into the red zone, but Flores’s defense is now going on Year 4 of causing complete chaos for opposing offenses, and this appears to be his most complete unit from a personnel standpoint. 

The Vikings have spent several seasons putting together the defense, from signing players like Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel, Eric Wilson and Isaiah Rodgers to developing Turner and Levi Drake Rodriguez. Everyone who started Sunday’s game against the Bears has been in the defense for multiple years, giving Flores the tools to operate however he desires. 

The presence of Blake Cashman and other key Vikings defenders gives DC Brian Flores all the tools he needs. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

So Flores’s strategy of sending multiple rushers and covering up the back end with zones, which are sometimes challenging from a communication standpoint, is something the Vikings can keep doing on a weekly basis and cause miscues from the offense. 

Last year they were in the top five in sacks. In 2024, they were No. 1 in interceptions. It’s nothing new for a defense that’s this aggressive about taking the ball away and forcing big negative plays. 

That doesn’t mean it’s going to be this good every single week. The one thing about Flores’s defense that’s worth watching is the depth. As the season goes on, if they have to drop down to the next part of the depth chart at outside or inside linebacker, their ability to be dynamic changes. We saw that last season when Cashman and Van Ginkel were out. 

With the D-line missing Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins for more than half the game, rookie Caleb Banks was forced into more work than the team wanted, and the Bears took advantage on several big runs. 

Is the success sustainable? Yes. Fragile? Also yes. 

That’s where the offensive side comes in. 

Good or lucky, what happens next will hinge on the Vikings' offense

We can pretty much toss out the Vikings’ offensive numbers for the first two weeks because of the circumstances. 

Wentz was forced to come off the bench with zero practice with the first team and found a way to play competent football against the Packers. Then his second start took place in a driving rainstorm with plenty of wind to boot. 

It’s easy to forget that Kyler Murray was Pro Football Focus's 11th-ranked QB in 2024 and ninth in ESPN’s quarterback rating stat that year as well. He has been responsible for elite seasons for receiving weapons like DeAndre Hopkins and Trey McBride. 

Nobody thinks Murray will suddenly be Josh Allen in the Vikings’ offense—even O’Connell is emphasizing that he doesn’t try to play hero. But he can be much, much better than the Vikings’ 31st ranking in passing yards per game. Even as a prominent running team, the Cardinals were 18th in passing yards in 2024, and they didn’t have Justin Jefferson or anyone close to him. 

If the Vikings’ passing game gets on track to even its normal level with starting-caliber QBs playing (i.e., Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold), then the defense can have a little more leeway, and things won’t have to live and die in the red zone or off turnovers every single game. 

The Vikings shouldn’t apologize for catching the breaks in the first two weeks. That said, in order to be a legitimate NFC contender, they need Murray to be healthy and perform like a top-half passing game because those breaks will not happen every week.

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