Vikings at Buccaneers: Who Wins and Why in Week 3

The Vikings may find a desperate group of pirates down in Tampa on Sunday. While Minnesota enters Week 3 at 2-0, the Buccaneers are 0-2 after dropping games to the Bengals and Browns.

But despite the drastically different records, the game figures to be hyper competitive, fueled by a pair of former teammates now on opposite sidelines in Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. There's plenty to discuss about the matchup, so let's get into who ultimately wins and why.

Vikings offense vs. Buccaneers defense

The Vikings will get Kyler Murray back after missing nearly all of Week 1 and then the entirety of the Bears game last week. Jauan Jennings returned to practice this week after missing last week with a personal issue, and Aaron Jones will enter Sunday without an injury designation after spending much of the week on the injury report. Once again near full strength—minus Jordan Mason—the excuses will be far and few between if the offense doesn't move the ball on Sunday.

Still, that doesn't mean there won't be hiccups. After splitting reps all summer and sitting for virtually all of preseason, Murray is surely still trying to develop some chemistry with his receivers. Justin Jefferson is about as quarterback-proof as they come, but Jordan Addison and Jennings have just two total catches combined this season, and Murray will need to find ways to get them involved for the offense to flourish.

As for the run game, Jones likely won't handle the same Superman workload from last week, and the Vikings will need to rely on DeeJay Dallas, Demond Claiborne, or even Jerome Ford to provide a spark. That doesn't exactly portray a picture of confidence, and Murray might need to utilize that career six yards per carry average and shoulder some of that load himself.

The Buccaneers do have a stout run defense, but will be without two key starters in Reuban Bain and Josiah Trotter. But besides being top-five against the run, there's not much else this defense can hang their hat on. They've allowed 28 points per game, and that's after playing the Cleveland Browns. And while sacks are fairly ubiquitous around Minneapolis, the Bucs are much less familiar with just three on the year.

Yet, it's not as though the Vikings are breaking scoring records either. The return of Murray should provide a boost, but this battle may be more even than at first glance.

Buccaneers offense vs. Vikings defense

Baker Mayfield is fresh off a monster contract extension, and he's already potentially making the Buccaneers regret it. He coughed the ball up three times in the season opener against Cincinnati, and threw a pick in the loss to Cleveland. The state of Ohio has been pretty cruel to Mayfield in 2026, and now he'll be rewarded with a visit from Sack City, USA.

Mayfield has been dropped seven times this season, and the Vikings will be looking to get after an offensive line that has struggled to begin the season. Minnesota is tied for first in the NFL with eight sacks, and after back-to-back week with over a 75-percent blitz rate, you better believe the heat is coming to Tampa. But if the Vikings pressure can't get to Mayfield, the Buccaneers do have a few scary skill players to contend with.

Bucky Irving is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the ground, and Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are tough to stop when healthy and on their game. Those are some big ifs, but at 0-2, the Buccaneers will have no bigger motivation than to win this weekend no matter what.

Ultimately, if the Vikings can rattle Mayfield, this defense can take over the game and capitalize on mistakes and turnovers. On the other hand, there's also a reason Tampa Bay felt comfortable giving their quarterback $160 million, and things could turn sour quickly for the Vikings.

Verdict

Vikings: 23 Buccaneers: 20

Get Vikings On SI straight to your inbox: sign up for our free newsletter here.

Add us as a preferred source on Google