Vikings' Week 1 Clash With Packers Is the Perfect Season-Opening Test

You couldn’t ask for a much better opponent for the Vikings to open their season than the Packers. Talk about a game with extra juice and potential repercussions for the battle for the NFC North.

It was also 10 years ago that the Vikings opened U.S. Bank Stadium against the Packers in Week 2 of the 2016 season with a win over Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. It was in 2022 when Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell started his era with a victory over Green Bay at home as well.

In the last decade, the two teams’ matchups have changed a lot, with Rodgers giving way to Jordan Love and O’Connell replacing Mike Zimmer, but the total of the two clubs facing off has been as tight as it gets overall. In 20 contests since 2016, the Vikings are 11-8-1; however, the Packers have outscored them by a mere 36 points during that span.

There are some gems in those 20 games. The 2018 tie. The 43-34 Packers win in a shootout to start the 2020 season. The 34-31 back-and-forth affair in 2021. The wrong-cleats game. Anthony Barr’s hit on Rodgers. The two near comebacks by the Pack in 2024.

This year’s game matches up a Vikings team that is looking to prove that they haven’t disappeared from the NFC North conversation after a step backward last season. The Packers are trying to maintain their steady appearances in the playoffs. Both coaches are under a lot of pressure.

But the two teams do not enter the game with the same vibes.

Vikings' vibes are opposite of Packers entering Week 1

The Vikings had a calm summer outside of their quarterback competition, in which they didn’t have any major injuries outside of Jamal Adams and Tyler Batty and saw Kyler Murray appear to lock into O’Connell’s offense and click with Justin Jefferson, as could have been expected. The Vikings’ defense dominated joint practices, and then added pass rusher Kyle Van Noy and Harrison Smith returned to the mix in time for the start of the year.

Harrison Smith comes out tunnel. — Harrison Smith's return is just one reason why the vibes are great around the Vikings at the moment. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Packers are on the other side of the spectrum.

An off-field incident landed running back Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, making it very unlikely that he will play against the Vikings this week. The Packers were forced to trade for Steelers running back Kaleb Johnson, and they will also lean on young RB Marshawn Lloyd. Last year, Johnson gained just 69 yards on 28 carries, and Lloyd has six career runs for 15 yards.

Those numbers come nowhere close to Jacobs, who had over 1,300 yards in 2024 and 929 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.

It wouldn’t be so much of an issue if LaFleur didn’t lean heavily on the run. His offense since Jordan Love took over at QB has been more run-first, and everything is built off success on the ground. Against the Vikings, he’ll need to play with one hand tied behind his back.

Green Bay’s blocking up front is suspect in front of their two unproven runners. ESPN’s Mike Clay ranked the offensive line 24th entering the year.

Projected NFL Offensive Line Starters for all 32 teams as we approach Week 1 pic.twitter.com/nShj0CfxHg
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 2, 2026

On the defensive side, the Packers will be without Micah Parsons, who was a frontrunner for defensive MVP before tearing his ACL last year. The only two edge rushers who graded higher than Parsons by Pro Football Focus were Myles Garrett and Will Anderson Jr., and Parsons produced 12.5 sacks and 79 pressures in just 436 pass-rush snaps.

Outside of Parsons, the Packers are lacking in proven rushers. They sent Rashan Gary to the Cowboys this offseason, and Devonte Wyatt has dropped off since his peak 2023 season, from a high of 45 QB pressures to just 22 last year. They added Javon Hargrave this offseason, but it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. The highest projected player by Clay in terms of sacks for 2026—outside of Parsons—is Lukas Van Ness at 5.4 sacks.

Cornerback concerns

There are also major questions about Green Bay’s cornerback group. Their two starters ranked 36th and 45th by PFF grade last year, and Keisean Nixon was part of a competition during camp/preseason. Clay ranks the Pack’s DB unit 26th in the league.

If we add up the shortcomings on Green Bay’s roster, they play to the strengths of the Vikings. The Vikings were fourth in QB sacks last year. If Love is forced into passing situations, he will see the full breadth of defensive coordinator Brian Flores’s blitzes.

In 2024, Murray was the eighth-highest-graded quarterback by PFF when given a clean pocket. If Green Bay struggles to pressure him, then Murray can deliver the ball on time to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and Co. The Vikings’ O-line is also healthy and has appeared to lock into the new run scheme.

The Vikings are favored by a shade to win at home and maybe deserve even more than the 1.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook) they are being given when we look at the different elements leaning Minnesota’s way, including one of the top home-field advantages in the game.

Nothing is certain

But that doesn’t guarantee a thing when it comes to playing against Love and LaFleur.

Last year, Love finished the season as PFF’s fifth-highest-graded quarterback, and Green Bay ranked fifth in total passing Expected Points Added. He has the capability to manage pressure as well as any QB in the NFL and has the arm and speed at receiver to hit downfield passes with the best QBs. There is also a ton of familiarity between him, LaFleur and Flores.

The game has huge stakes in the NFC North race. Despite their shortcomings, the Packers have still proven to be a consistent postseason threat. And the Vikings, desperate to return to the playoffs, can’t let them off the hook.

Welcome back, football. We’ve got a good one to start the Vikings’ season.

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