Even if Arsenal Can Afford Vinicius Junior

Arsenal signing Vinícius Júnior this summer would be the ultimate piece of transfer opportunism, capitalizing on one of the world’s best players running down his contract—to the point where it could be a risk for Real Madrid to keep him, despite José Mourinho’s wishes.

But just because Vinícius Júnior is in that situation does not mean he will be available cheaply.

Even with 11 months left on his contract, the transfermarkt database places a $159.5 million (€140 million, £120 million) valuation on the Brazilian.

Automatically, that would represent a substantial new Arsenal record, which is currently the $140 million (£105 million) deal that took Declan Rice to Emirates Stadium in 2023.

Real Madrid accepting that amount would be a surprise, given it is barely an increase on the fees paid already this summer for Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers, players who have achieved comparatively little in the sport compared to Vinícius Jr.

Anything above $166 million (£125 million) would break the Premier League record set last summer when Alexander Isak swapped Newcastle United for Liverpool.

Thanks to accounting practices, a transfer fee—except in the case of release clauses—isn’t cash upfront. Paying for a $166 million player is spread over the length of a contract, up to a maximum of five years—Chelsea had for a little while been handing out seven and eight-year contracts until soccer authorities capped amortization in the summer of 2023.

That transfer fee suddenly becomes $33.2 million per season, inflated by a player’s salary. In the case of Vinícius Jr., it could be a similar number due to a weekly paycheck that might exceed $600,000. In the Premier League, only Erling Haaland is paid more.

Player Sales Would Help With Vinicius Jr. Affordability

In addition to stripping down a transfer fee into yearly installments, a club can record the fee for a player sale in full. For Arsenal, signing Piero Hincapié and Christos Tzolis so far for a combined $91 million can be recorded as an $18 million expense in the 2026–27 accounts. But selling Karl Hein, Jakub Kiwior and Leandro Trossard is around $43 million coming in.

Were Arsenal to sell Gabriel Martinelli, which would be a necessary step to avoid having an unnecessary amount of left wingers, the power to buy increases.

There is the second-year amortization cost of last summer’s $330 million spend to also consider, but at the same time, Arsenal’s annual revenue has exploded in recent seasons and could even exceed $1 billion when 2025–26’s accounts are published.

Ben White, Gabriel Jesus, Fábio Vieira, Reiss Nelson and even Ethan Nwaneri are others who could be moved on this summer. That's easier said than done, of course, with little transfer interest shown in any of them so far.

Vinicius Jr. Could Destabilize Arsenal Squad

Vinícius Júnior — Vinícius Jr. would be the highest earner in north London. | Diego Souto/Getty Images

Considering the money he’s reported to have turned down from Madrid in pursuit of something more lucrative and the expected resurgence of Saudi Pro League interest, Vinícius Jr. couldn’t join Arsenal and not immediately be the club’s highest-paid player by some distance.

Bukayo Saka is currently top of those standings with $400,000 in his paycheck each week, still around $200,000 less than Vinícius Jr. might reasonably expect.

Arsenal have experienced in the past how big contracts can backfire, notably with Mesut Ӧzil and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and the club has worked hard in recent seasons to avoid having those kinds of imbalances in the squad. The next big player up for a new contract will be Rice, who could reasonably increase his demands should Vinícius Jr. raise the salary ceiling.

The Gunners have a good thing going right now, and chasing a superstar dripping with individual brilliance might actually do more harm than good.

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