Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Table for Every Possible Man City Points Deduction

The size of the points deduction it would take to definitively relegate Manchester City has been predicted.

Erling Haaland (left) and Martin Ødegaard would’ve had very different reactions to the news of Manchester City’s guilty verdict. | Carl Recine/Getty Images (Haaland), Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto/Getty Images (Arsenal)

One of the oldest clichés in soccer is the table doesn’t lie. The investigation into Manchester City’s breaches of more than 100 regulations have tested the fundamental fabric of that truism.

Whether you want to call it “the findings of an independent commission” or a “Premier League conspiracy theory,” City have been found guilty. The club have launched an appeal but, at this point in the process, a “systematic” evasion of the competition’s financial rules for nine seasons through a “Disguised Funding Scheme” has put all results since 2009 into question.

It remains to be seen what will be done about those previous seasons, but there is the current campaign to worry about as well. A wide array of punishments are on the table for City, with a points deduction of any size very much in the offing. Opta have helpfully crunched the numbers on how the differing scales of punishment could affect City’s league finish, offering up figures which could impact the title race, battle for European qualification or even relegation.

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Supercomputer Predicts Man City’s Chances of Winning 2026–27 Premier League Title

Arsenal would be big winners. | Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Points Deducted	Title Chances
0	40%
5	25%
10	15%
15	7%
20	3%
25	Less than 1%

City may sit top of the Premier League with a faultless record after five games but they aren’t favorites to reclaim the title even with their points tally intact. That status belongs to defending champions Arsenal, whose claim for the retention of glory would only be enhanced by some sporting sanctions for their closest rivals. According to Opta’s 100,000 simulations of the season’s remaining fixtures, it wouldn’t take much for City to be knocked out of the title race entirely.

A five-point penalty would almost slash City’s chances in half, while anything beyond 10 points sees their ambitions rapidly dwindle. Given the size of the sanctions dished out to Everton and Nottingham Forest—clubs who were charged with single-digit breaches, not more than 100 like City—Enzo Maresca’s side can expected to receive a much steeper punishment.

If the Premier League dish out a deduction of 25 points or more, City can effectively kiss the title goodbye. However, that may be the least of their concerns.

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Premier League Title Favorites Besides Man City

1. Arsenal: 44.2%
2. Liverpool: 5.4%
3. Brighton: 3.8%
4. Brentford: 1.2%
5. Chelsea: 1.1%

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FALLOUT ON MAN CITY CHARGES VERDICT

• Seven Takeaways From Official Report Into Man City’s Nine Years of Cheating

• Premier League Stun Man City With Scathing Official Guilty Verdict

• Man City Charges: The Premier League’s Multi-Year Investigation Explained

• The Potential Punishments Facing Man City for 115 Premier League Charges

• The Premier League Champions If Man City Are Stripped of Titles

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Supercomputer Predicts Man City’s Chances of Champions League Qualification

Manchester City could still win their appeal, but the court of public opinion has spoken. | Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images

Points Deducted	Top Four Finish	Top Five Finish
0	90%	94%
10	62%	63%
20	28%	28%
30	6%	6%
40	0%	Less than 1%

City’s aspirations for Champions League qualification appear to be remarkably durable. The 2023 competition winners would still have a better chance of finishing in the top four with a 20-point deduction (around 28%) than Chelsea do right now (18.8%).

Those odds tumble rapidly once the punishment jumps beyond 30 points, with Opta predicting that City’s chances of finishing in the top four fall below 1% with a 38-point penalty. Should fifth place in the Premier League also earn Champions League qualification—as it has done for the past two seasons—it would take 40 points to all but guarantee City’s non-qualification.

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Champions League Qualification Favorites Besides Man City

1. Arsenal: 90.8%
2. Liverpool: 46.4%
3. Brighton: 39.4%
4. Chelsea: 18.8%
5. Brentford: 18.1%
6. Man Utd: 16.4%
7. Everton: 15.9%
8. Newcastle: 14.5%
9. Aston Villa: 13.6%
10. Leeds: 12.2%

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Supercomputer Predicts Man City’s Chances of Relegation

A points deduction for Manchester City could really help out Roberto De Zerbi. | James Gill/Danehouse/Getty Images

Points Deducted	Chances of Relegation
20 or fewer	Less than 5%
30 or fewer	Less than 20%
40	More than 50%
60	Almost 100%
74	100%

The Premier League do not have the power to relegate Manchester City directly to the Championship. England’s top flight—which is a separate body to the Football League that governs the second, third and fourth tiers—can expel the club from their competition, but the most likely route for relegation could be a points deduction so big that demotion is guaranteed. It will take an unprecedented penalty.

Even a points deduction as large as 20—comfortably the biggest in the competition’s history—would still see City relegated in less than 5% of scenarios. For comparison, Aston Villa’s current chances of demotion stand at 7.9%.

The stakes are raised with a 30-point penalty but it’s not until 40 points are on the table that the balance actually tips. Maresca’s side is effectively guaranteed a finish of 18th or below with a 60-point deduction but, if the Premier League want to play it safe, Opta have found that City are relegated in all 100,000 of their simulations if they have 74 or more points taken away.

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Relegation Favorites Besides Man City

1. Coventry City: 44.9%
2. Fulham: 42.3%
3. Tottenham: 29.8%
4. Ipswich: 27.8%
5. Crystal Palace: 27.1%
6. Sunderland: 24.1%
7. Nottingham Forest: 21.7%
8. Hull City: 19.8%
9. Bournemouth: 18.6%
10. Aston Villa: 7.9%

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