Against the Spread Bets for Thursday’s First-Round March Madness Games
The First Four games were quite a treat over the past two days, especially the Rutgers-Notre Dame game that bled into Thursday morning. But that was just a primer for Thursday and Friday's all-day marathons of Round of 64 games.
Get ready for 32 games over 48 hours, and then 16 more across Saturday and Sunday.
To prepare you for all the action, SI Betting editor Matt Ehalt and I picked every single game on Thursday’s slate.
That’s right. We’ve got you covered no matter whether the spread is as lopsided as No. 1 Gonzaga laying 22.5 points against No. 16 Georgia State or as close as No. 11 Michigan being favored by just 1.5 points against No. 6 Colorado State.
Here's how Matt and I think all the action from noon to midnight will unfold as brackets are busted.
Check the Latest Odds and Lines for the NCAA Tournament at SI Sportsbook
Michael Conroy/AP
No. 11 Michigan (17-14) vs. No. 6 Colorado State (25-5)
Time: 12:15 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-110) | Colorado State +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Michigan (-125) | Colorado State (+100)
Over/Under: Under 137 (-118) | Over 137 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Colorado State +1.5
Now that the Rams have a ride to Indianapolis, I like David Roddy and Colorado State to win outright against a Michigan team that’s 5-5 over its last 10 and will be without starting point guard DeVante Jones.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Michigan -1.5
These teams are about the same on KenPom (32-Michigan, 34-CSU), but I’m taking Michigan to rebound from a collapse in the Big Ten tournament. That Michigan is favored here makes me believe they’ll get the job done with better talent.
No. 13 South Dakota State (30-4) vs. No. 4 Providence (25-5)
Time: 12:40 p.m. | truTV
Spread: South Dakota State +2 (-110) | Providence -2 (-118)
Moneyline: South Dakota State (+110) | Providence (-143)
Over/Under: Under 148.5 (-110) | Over 148.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: South Dakota State +2
The Jackrabbits are fast, they’re the best three-point shooting team in the nation and they haven’t lost since Dec. 15. South Dakota State’s strength of schedule pales in comparison to Providence’s, but the Friars look vulnerable heading into the tournament and the Jackrabbits can take advantage if and when they get hot.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: South Dakota State +2
I’ve already made it known that I’m on the Jackrabbits, but I’ll admit that the overwhelming support for South Dakota State scares me a tad. Could the reverse lock be in play? I will say that Ed Cooley’s comments—and he’s a good coach—about no one believing in Providence made me laugh. This seems like the easiest upset to call.
Rick Bowmer/AP
No. 9 Memphis (21-10) vs. No. 8 Boise State (27-7)
Time: 1:45 p.m. | TNT
Spread: Memphis -3 (-110) | Boise State +3 (-118)
Moneyline: Memphis (-161) | Boise State (+125)
Over/Under: Under 133.5 (-110) | Over 133.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Memphis -3
The Tigers get up and down the court much quicker than the Broncos and I think they can get the best of Boise State’s elite defense. The ball moves around with ease in Memphis’ offense, which goes through big man Jalen Duren and shoots high-percentage shots at a high clip.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Memphis -3
Memphis, aside from the AAC title game, has been playing great basketball down the stretch. These two teams are similar in metrics, but I believe Penny Hardaway’s club found something down the stretch. Memphis’ defense could give Boise State issues.
No. 16 Norfolk State (24-6) vs. No. 1 Baylor (26-6)
Time: 2 p.m. | TBS
Spread: Norfolk State +20.5 (-110) | Baylor -20.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Norfolk State (+1800) | Baylor (-10000)
Over/Under: Under 137.5 (-110) | Over 137.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Baylor -20.5
The Bears beat down on lesser competition early in the year with some 20-,30-, even 40-plus-point winning margins before Big 12 play started up. The best team Norfolk State played this season, Xavier, missed the tournament and still handed them an 88-48 loss. Give me the defending champs.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Baylor -20.5
I wouldn’t want to be Norfolk State. Baylor pummeled teams in non-conference play and should be quite upset after losing in the Big 12 tournament quarters. While the Bears will be shorthanded, this will be a game where they take out their frustration.
Chris O’Meara/AP
No. 14 Longwood (26-6) vs. No. 3 Tennessee (26-7)
Time: 2:45 p.m. | CBS
Spread: Longwood +18 (-110) | Tennessee -18 (-118)
Moneyline: Longwood (+1100) | Tennessee (-3333)
Over/Under: Under 132.5 (-110) | Over 132.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Tennessee -18
The Volunteers are winners of seven in a row and have beaten fellow SEC teams by more than 18 points. It will be tough for the Lancers to score enough on Tennessee’s defense to hang around—Longwood lost its only game against a tournament team (Iowa) by 23 points.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Longwood +18
Fun fact: Longwood went 19-9 ATS this year, per teamrankings.com! Tennessee will win. That’s not in doubt. But Longwood has the chops to cover. Tennessee is strong ATS as Kyle wrote, but let’s have a little fun here. There’s nothing in the metrics that indicates Longwood can exploit Tennessee, but I like backing an ATS machine.
No. 12 Richmond (23-12) vs. No. 5 Iowa (26-9)
Time: 3:10 p.m. | truTV
Spread: Richmond +10.5 (-118) | Iowa -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Richmond (+400) | Iowa (-654)
Over/Under: Under 150.5 (-118) | Over 150.5 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Iowa -10.5
Congrats to Richmond on stealing a bid, but the dance ends here against the Hawkeyes, a team with a fearsome offense led by star Keegan Murray, Iowa can and should run Richmond off the floor.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Richmond +10.5
Iowa is always at risk for an upset and I don’t believe it happens here, but Richmond can keep this game within 10 points. Richmond only suffered a few blowout losses this year, and Iowa’s defense is porous enough to allow Richmond to stay within striking distance. Richmond also may have some juice after winning the A-10.
No. 16 Georgia State (18-10) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (26-3)
Time: 3:10 p.m. | truTV
Spread: Georgia State +22.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -22.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Georgia State (+1800) | Gonzaga (-10000)
Over/Under: Under 148.5 (-110) | Over 148.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Gonzaga -22.5
After coming up just short yet again last season, Gonzaga resumes its march back to the title game. The 2021 run included four lopsided victories; Georgia State will be its first victim this time in a game that should be largely over by halftime.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Gonzaga -22.5
Well, Bill Enright, the easy answer is: Yes, I would bet that. This is the WWE champion facing a jobber. It’s going to be a squash. No way Gonzaga lets this stay close. Gonzaga is my pick to win it all and this starts its run to the title.
No. 9 Marquette (19-12) vs. No. 8 North Carolina (24-9)
Time: 4:30 p.m. | TBS
Spread: Marquette +3.5 (-110) | North Carolina -3.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Marquette (+138) | North Carolina (-188)
Over/Under: Under 152 (-118) | Over 152 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: North Carolina -3.5
The Golden Eagles are falling apart at the wrong time while the Tar Heels seem to be on a roll, and maybe still on an emotional high from the Duke game a few weeks back. UNC shoots well from the field, from the line and from deep and has a dominant presence inside with Armando Bacot, which adds to its advantage on the boards. Give me North Carolina in March.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: North Carolina -3.5
I don’t trust either team, but Marquette really fell off after it swept Villanova and did not show up in the Big East tournament. North Carolina didn’t face stiff competition in the ACC tournament, but it has more talent. Back the Tar Heels.
Frank Franklin II/AP
No. 12 New Mexico State (26-6) vs. No. 5 UConn (23-9)
Time: 6:50 p.m. | TNT
Spread: New Mexico State +6.5 (-118) | UConn -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: New Mexico State (+220) | Uconn (-333)
Over/Under: Under 132 (-110) | Over 132 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: UConn -6.5
UConn’s one-two punch of R.J. Cole and Adama Sanogo are as solid as they come and the Huskies have the Aggies outmatched on both sides of the ball. New Mexico State has the best scorer in this matchup in Teddy Allen, but Connecticut has a solid defense to throw at him and it can slow the game down to a crawl and win a grind-it-out game.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: UConn -6.5
Anyone who follows me on Twitter—at your own risk—knows how I feel about Danny Hurley. UConn struggles in the second game of tournaments, not the first. UConn has a good roster and should win this one easily in front of a pro-Husky crowd. New Mexico State’s metrics are solid, but Adama Sanogo should control the game.
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-11) vs. No. 2 Kentucky (26-7)
Time: 7:10 p.m. | CBS
Spread: Saint Peter’s +17.5 (-110) | Kentucky -17.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Saint Peter’s (+1400) | Kentucky (-5000)
Over/Under: Under 132 (-118) | Over 132 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Kentucky -17.5
Kentucky hasn’t done well against large spreads in recent games, but Saint Peter’s presents an opportunity to buck that trend. The Peacocks have the second-worst offense in the field and the Wildcats have a top-five unit. Saint Peter’s has a stout defense, but it won’t have an answer for Oscar Tshiebwe inside—no team has this season.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Saint Peter’s +17.5
I had a witty joke all ready to go but then we learned Saint Peter’s is actually 20-9 ATS this year, per teamrankings.com. Another example of a game where Kentucky will win, but Saint Peter’s is plucky. Its defense ranks 35th at KenPom. I’m willing to bet the Peacocks’ defense can keep this from being a 20-plus-point blowout loss.
Jeff Dean/AP
No. 12 Indiana (21-13) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (25-7)
Time: 7:20 p.m. | TBS
Spread: Indiana +3 (-118) | Saint Mary’s -3 (-110)
Moneyline: Indiana (+125) | Saint Mary’s (-161)
Over/Under: Under 126.5 (-110) | Over 126.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Indiana +3
This might be a good 12-5 game to call your shot on. The Hoosiers have a defense that can contend with the Gaels’ and no one seems to have an answer for Trayce Jackson-Davis, who’s averaging better than 26 ppg since the Big Ten tournament began. Don’t expect a lot of points to be scored in this one.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Saint Mary’s -3
Indiana is playing quite well but its running into a really good Saint Mary’s team. Saint Mary’s is 16th at KenPom with the ninth-ranked defense. Indiana’s offense is lacking, and Saint Mary’s has more firepower. The Gaels can win by a few buckets.
No. 9 Creighton (22-11) vs. No. 8 San Diego State (23-8)
Time: 7:27 p.m. | truTV
Spread: Creighton +2.5 (-118) | San Diego State -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Creighton (+110) | San Diego State (-143)
Over/Under: Under 120.5 (-118) | Over 120.5 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: San Diego State -2.5
I like an Aztecs team that defends the three ball exceptionally well, has a shot blocker like Nathan Mensah manning the paint and has a steadying force in senior guard Matt Bradley running the offense. Creighton has the edge offensively, but the Bluejays are 3-3 since losing point guard Ryan Nembhard for the season a few weeks back. That matters in March.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: San Diego State -2.5
You wouldn’t expect this since it involves Creighton, but this is a defensive battle with two top-20 KenPom defenses. Creighton played quite well in the Big East tournament and had Villanova on the ropes in the championship game, but its run will come to an end against San Diego State. The Bluejays have played well without Ryan Nembhard, but this could be a repeat of the Villanova game in which they struggle to score.
Jessica Hill/AP
No. 13 Vermont (28-5) vs. No. 4 Arkansas (25-8)
Time: 9:20 p.m. | TNT
Spread: Vermont +5 (-110) | Arkansas -5 (-118)
Moneyline: Vermont (+170) | Arkansas (-250)
Over/Under: Under 139 (-110) | Over 139 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Arkansas -5
The Razorbacks are on upset watch against an uber-efficient Catamounts squad. Still, I think Arkansas can avoid a first-round disaster thanks to its trademark defense. Jaylin Williams locks down the paint and JD Notae can pour in points at will on the other end. The Hogs have played and beaten the best teams in the country; Vermont can’t say the same, even though it's only lost twice since Dec. 1.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Vermont +5
True story: The 2005 tournament was the first after I was accepted to Syracuse. You may remember that tournament. “Sorrentine hit that one from the parking lot!” What bearing does that have on this game? Nothing. But Vermont dominated the America East tournament, and Arkansas had a head-scratching loss to Texas A&M. Eric Musselman is already complaining about a pro-Vermont crowd. Take Vermont.
No. 10 San Francisco (24-9) vs. No. 7 Murray State (30-2)
Time: 9:40 p.m. | CBS
Spread: San Francisco +2 (-118) | Murray State -2 (-110)
Moneyline: San Francisco (+110) | Murray State (-143)
Over/Under: Under 136.5 (-118) | Over 136.5 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: San Francisco +2
The Dons and Racers both employ a trio of capable scorers that propel their high-scoring offenses. I’m giving the edge to San Francisco for the edge it has on defense and because the fight it showed No. 1 Gonzaga is still fresh in my mind. Murray State hasn’t lost since Dec. 22, but the competition in the OVC this season isn’t what it was in the WCC.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Murray State -2
This is a fascinating game with two top-30 KenPom teams, with San Francisco slightly ahead (21-27). Losing Yauhen Massalski—(read this great story)—is a tough blow for the Dons, and opens the door for Murray State. That may just be the difference.
John Locher/AP
No. 13 Akron (24-9) vs. No. 4 UCLA (25-7)
Time: 9:50 p.m. | TBS
Spread: Akron +13.5 (-110) | UCLA -13.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Akron (+700) | UCLA (-1613)
Over/Under: Under 128.5 (-118) | Over 128.5 (-110)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: UCLA -13.5
The Zips don’t do anything exceptionally well, while the Bruins are great on both sides of the ball, and they’re back in the dance with their 2021 Final Four roster largely intact. I’m going with a UCLA squad primed for another deep run that should begin with a big win.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: UCLA -13.5
I have the Bruins in the Final Four and I won’t feel confident if they can’t easily handle Akron . UCLA has a loaded roster and is going against a team without a standout facet of its game. The Bruins start their run to the Final Four with a laugher.
No. 16 Texas Southern (19-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (28-6)
Time: 9:57 p.m. | truTV
Spread: Texas Southern +21.5 (-110) | Kansas -21.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Texas Southern (+1400) | Kansas (-5000)
Over/Under: Under 144.5 (-110) | Over 144.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Kansas -21.5
Kansas played one of the toughest schedules in all of college basketball this year, but when it did face inferior opponents early on in the season 20-point spots were not uncommon. Texas Southern is the lowest-ranked team in the field, per KenPom, and KU just ran through the Big 12 tourney. I’m not overthinking this one.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Kansas -21.5
I may have picked Texas Southern if this wasn’t its second game in three days. Kidding. Kansas is loaded. Texas Southern had its moment.
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