AFC West Future Odds Betting Breakdown

The Chiefs are slight favorites over the Chargers at SI Sportsbook to win the AFC West.

Author:
Shawn Childs
Publish date:
Aug 12, 2022

In this story:

Based on the over/under wins totals and division odds at SI Sportsbook, the Chiefs (10.5 wins, +160) and Chargers (10.5 wins, +240) look to be in a dead heat to win the AFC West. The Broncos (9.5 wins, +260) and Raiders (8.5 wins, +650) also project to be above .500, putting them in striking distance of stealing a division title.

The Chiefs traded their elite game-breaking wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, leaving Patrick Mahomes with an aging top tight end in Travis Kelce and questionable depth at wideout. In addition, Kansas City’s running game hasn’t been the same since Kareem Hunt pushed his way out of town. Finally, the Chiefs’ defense has downside risk defending the run while needing to rebuild their secondary.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN

Unfortunately, Kansas City doesn’t look to the offensive personnel to outscore its division opponents unless multiple players on offense and defense show significant growth this upcoming season. They have the edge in coaching staff, but Mahomes is no longer head and shoulders better than the other AFC West quarterbacks.

The addition of Russell Wilson adds magic to the Broncos’ fourth quarter, something that has been missing for a decade. They have a developing young running back plus two wide receivers that should be much better with Wilson behind center. Their defense has three playmakers—safety Justin Simmons, cornerback Patrick Surtain and defensive end Bradley Chubb. For Denver to push up the division standings, it must improve against the run and shorten the passing window for quarterbacks.

Aug 1, 2022; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (13) catches the ball as safety JT Woods (22) defends during training camp at the Jack Hammett Sports Complex. — Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The lights in Las Vegas clicked higher once it acquired wide receiver Davante Adams in the offseason. Derek Carr now has three excellent receiving options, and Josh Jacobs is young enough to push his game to another level. The combination of pass rushers Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones will get after the quarterback. When they don’t, the Raiders may not have the right personnel to shut down the top passing quarterbacks.

Their defense almost has a front-runner feel. Unfortunately, Las Vegas will sometimes get bullied versus offenses with a strong run game.

One could argue that the Chargers have the more rounded offense in their division due to the combination of quarterback Justin Herbert, running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I like the direction of their offensive line, and they addressed some of their defensive shortfalls by adding linebacker Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson. However, their 2021 Achilles heel was defending the run.

Bet on AFC West Future Odds at SI Sportsbook!

When betting on a division winner, finding flaws in the odds is a must while also understanding the direction and potential of each team.

The best all-around team in this division looks to be the Chargers. They look poised to knockoff the king of the mountain (Chiefs), but they can’t afford to take even one injury on offense due to each opponent looking to give them a TKO on Sundays.

Based on odds, Las Vegas is the fun ride but I’ll take my small win (+240) with the new quarterback sheriff in the AFC West.