Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown
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The Urban Meyer experiment for the Jaguars proved to be miserable failure that resulted in only two wins in 13 games.
After enduring losing seasons in 10 of the last 11 years, Jacksonville hopes Doug Peterson can carry over the success he enjoyed in Philadelphia. Peterson posted a 42-37-1 record with the Eagles, highlighted by a victory in Super Bowl LIII.
Jacksonville, which owns a dreadful 47-130 (.249) record since 2011, hopes the offensive-minded Peterson can replicate the magic he produced with Nick Foles with 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence in his sophomore season. Lawrence struggled in his rookie campaign, throwing multiple touchdowns in only two of 17 starts while completing only 59.6% of his passes.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | Division Odds
Oddsmakers strongly believe the young Jaguars are several seasons away from contending for a playoff spot as the Colts (-110) and Titans (+150) are well ahead of the Jaguars (+600) and Texans (+2500) in the betting odds to win the AFC South.
Since 2011, Jacksonville has won more than six games just once. The question bettors need to answer in this market is: Will the regime change, as well as the return of Travis Etienne, enable the Jaguars to surpass their regular season win total projection of 6.5 games and win the most games since 2017?
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Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK
Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under: 6.5 - O (-105) | U (-133)
2021-2022 record: 3-14; Fourth AFC South; Missed Playoffs
AFC South future odds: +600 (Third)
AFC future odds: +4000 (14th)
Super Bowl future odds: +10000 (Tied-28th)
Key additions: G Brandon Scherff, WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram
Key losses: WR DJ Chark, LB Myles Jack, OL Andrew Norwell
Key rookies: DE Travon Walker, LB Devin Lloyd
Jaguar Report Offseason Grade: B-
The Jaguars were one of the most aggressive teams in free agency, giving significant contracts to Kirk, Scherff, Fatukasi, Williams, Oluokun, Engram and Jones. That is a long and expensive list of players with perhaps only one name who is considered a top talent at his position: Scherff. But the Jaguars significantly improved a roster that didn’t have much depth or experienced talent. While the Jaguars did overpay (four years, $84 million for Kirk) for several players, each player represents a clear upgrade to what the Jaguars had at the position last year. Whether this is a sustainable model for team building is questionable, but the Jaguars entered this offseason hoping to improve defensively and in the wide receiver and tight end room, and their moves did just that. The Jaguars’ draft was one of the more unique ones this year. They bucked conventional wisdom at No. 1 in Georgia’s Walker and then added a defensive player with two of their next three picks (Lloyd at No. 27, Muma at No. 70). The Jaguars turned linebacker and edge rusher into two strengths after a year in which each unit suffered through injuries and poor depth. And Luke Fortner, who was taken with the No. 65 pick, will instantly give the Jaguars improved depth at both center and guard.—John Shipley
2022 Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule
Week 1: At Commanders (+4)
Week 2: Colts (+4.5)
Week 3: Chargers (+10)
Week 4: At Eagles (+6.5)
Week 5: Texans (-3.5)
Week 6: At Colts (+7)
Week 7: Giants (-1.5)
Week 8: Broncos (London) (+6.5)
Week 9: Raiders (+3)
Week 10: At Chiefs (+10)
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: Ravens (+4)
Week 13: At Lions (+2)
Week 14: At Titans (+6.5)
Week 15: Cowboys (+3.5)
Week 16: At Jets (+2.5)
Week 17: At Texans (‘PK)
Week 18: Titans +3
Jacksonville kicks off the 2022 season as four-point road underdogs against Carson Wentz and the Commanders The Jaguars are just 1-4 in their last five season-opening games. Jacksonville has lost 16 consecutive road games and has not emerged victorious away from TIAA Bank Field since Week 15 of the 2019 season.
In Week 2, Jacksonville hosts AFC South foe Indianapolis as 4.5-point underdogs in its home opener. Expect Lawrence and the Jaguars to be among the most popular home moneyline underdog targets as the Colts are 0-6 in their last six meetings in Jacksonville. The last time Indianapolis won in Jacksonville was in 2014 when Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards and four touchdowns in a 44-17 victory.
Jacksonville will continue its homestand in Week 3 when it hosts Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Oddsmakers have installed the Jaguars as 10-point home underdogs against a Chargers team with the fourth-best odds to win the AFC at +800 odds.
In Week 4, the Jaguars head to the city of Brotherly Love to take on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Oddsmakers are predicting the club will fall to 0-2 versus the NFC East and have installed Philadelphia as 6.5-point home favorites.
Week 5 and Week 7 mark the only two times the Jaguars are betting favorites when they take on the Texans (-3.5) and Giants (-1.5) at TIAA Bank Field. The Texans have beaten the Jaguars eight straight times by an average margin of 12.8 points per victory and Houston has won 19 of the last 23 meetings in the series since 2010.
Jacksonville heads across the pond in Week 8 to face Russell Wilson and the Broncos as 6.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars are 4-4 in games played in London and will likely drop to below .500 after this matchup.
The next two weeks, prior to the bye, the Jaguars will find tough sledding against two AFC West teams with high aspirations. Jacksonville will host Derek Carr and the Raiders as three-point home underdogs, followed by a trip west to Kansas City as 10-point underdogs against a Chiefs club that has won the AFC West six straight years.
Coming out of their Week 11 bye, Duuuval will host Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as four-point home underdogs in Week 12. That game is followed by a matchup seven days later with Jared Goff and the Lions as 2.5-point road underdogs.
Corey Perrine/USA Today network.
Over the final five games of the season, Jacksonville will face AFC South foe and reigning division champion Tennessee twice. The Titans have beaten the Jaguars in five consecutive matchups are 9-1 in the last 10 meeting.
The Week 14 and 18 games with Tennessee will not be easy against a Titans squad featuring Derrick Henry. The dynamic back has more rushing yards (1,143) against Jacksonville than any other team while adding 15 touchdowns in just 11 games.
Jacksonville is only favored in two of 17 games and this schedule does not offer many soft stretches. It will take Peterson several seasons to have the Jaguars contending for the AFC South title. There are simply too many holes on both sides of the ball which will prevent Jacksonville from surpassing their regular-season win total projection.
BET: Under 6.5 (-133) regular-season Wins
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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