Defense wins championships. While that is a decades old adage, will it hold true during Super Bowl LIV? We are about to find out as the Chiefs and 49ers are set to meet at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 2, 2020 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Here we will preview and predict Super Bowl prop betting options that are focused on the defensive and special teams units of the Chiefs and 49ers. Furnished by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, odds below are subject to change.
Total Interceptions By Both Teams: 1.5 (OV +120 / UN -140)
Westgate bookmakers have set the total interceptions at 1.5 during Super Bowl LIV. Kansas City recorded 16 interceptions over 16 regular season games, while the San Francisco defense picked off 12 passes of its own. The 49ers have picked off three passes during the playoffs, while the Chiefs have zero this postseason.
Patrick Mahomes was picked off five times in the regular season but has not thrown one during his four career playoff games. Jimmy Garoppolo was been picked off 14 times this season, including one so far in the postseason. There have been two or more interceptions during 39 of the first 53 Super Bowl battles, including four of the last six games. Bet the OVER on this prop.
Prop Pick: OVER 1.5
Total Fumbles Lost By Both Teams: 1.5 (OV +200 / UN -250)
Since lost fumbles often prove to be very costly, ball security is a huge key to winning Super Bowl battles. Just ask the Bills, who coughed up the ball five times during Super Bowl 27 and lost 52-17 to the Cowboys. Slightly surprising, there have been 16 NFL title games where neither team lost a fumble. There have also been 16 contests where the total fumble count was just one.
That leaves 21 Super Bowls that have gone over the 1.5 line set here. Neither team lost a fumble last year and there have been more than two fumbles in just four of the last 12 games.
So far this season Kansas City has eight recovered fumbles and lost 10, while San Francisco has recovered 17 fumbles and lost 11. Both teams have heavy hitters on defense so, while it’s a bit risky, bet OVER.
Prop Pick: OVER 1.5
Total Quarterback Sacks By Both Teams: 4.5 (OV -130 / UN +110)
Super Bowl LIV features a pair of teams that can both get to the quarterback and generate sacks. During the regular season, San Francisco recorded 48 sacks while Kansas City posted 45. That adds up to these teams producing 5.8 combined sacks per game.
The sack totals are up for both teams during the playoffs. The Chiefs had five against Houston and three versus Tennessee. The 49ers had six against Minnesota and three versus Green Bay.
Patrick Mahomes was sacked 19 times this season but just two of those were in the playoffs. Not as mobile as Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo was sacked 27 times during the regular season but just three times so far during the playoffs. Mahomes is often well protected by the Chiefs offensive line, plus he is great at escaping pressure. Add to that the 49ers dialling up a limited number of pass plays for Garoppolo and bet the sack total coming in UNDER.
Prop Pick: UNDER 4.5
Both Teams Make 33-Yard Field Goal: YES +100 / NO -120
Often unheralded, placekickers usually go unnoticed in the Super Bowl—until they miss a field goal, of course. That said, Kansas City and San Francisco both have quality kickers in Harrison Butker and Robbie Gould. Since the goal posts were moved to the end line back in 1974, both teams have hit 33-yard field goals just 14 times in Super Bowl history. However, this prop bet has paid YES in four of the last six games. I am betting on that trend continuing.
Prop Pick: YES
Shortest Made Field Goal 27.5 Yards: OV -110 / UN -110
For this prop to pay UNDER, one of the teams will need to make a field goal from no further out than the 10-yard line. That has happened in seven of the past 15 Super Bowl battles, but just once in the last four contests. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has made seven field goals of 27 yards or less this season, including one in the playoffs. 49ers kicker Robbie Gould has made nine of those short field goals, including two in the playoffs. Bet on the shortest field goal being OVER 27.5 yards.
Prop Bet: OVER 27.5 Yards
Longest Made Field Goal 47.5 Yards: OV -110 / UN 110
This special teams prop bet seems almost too easy. That is due to the fact that there have been just eight fields goals of 48 yards or longer in Super Bowl history. The most recent was last year, a 53-yarder by Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein. However, that was the only one during the last 14 Super Bowls. Teams are usually unwilling to risk giving up a big field position swing if they miss a long field goal. Add in the fact that this game being played at sea level and outdoors, and UNDER is the wager here.
Prop Bet: UNDER 47.5 Yards
Searching for more Super Bowl LIV trends, previews and wagering advice? Dig in below.