UFC Auckland Best Bets and DFS Tips

DFS tips and betting picks for UFC Auckland, featuring Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker in the main event.

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Feb 22, 2020

What’s up fight crew! Time to head to Auckland, New Zealand this week, as Paul Felder makes the trek to take on Auckland’s own Dan Hooker in what will no doubt be a banger. Sprinkled throughout the card is a number of fighters hailing from down under, showcasing a number of prospects looking to impress and quite possibly enter the rankings with a notch in the win column.

Let’s jump into this card we have on deck Saturday!

SATURDAY 02/22/20 at 4 P.M. ET
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: Spark Arena
LOCATION: Auckland, New Zealand
MATCHES: 13

MAIN CARD:

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

#6 PAUL FELDER 17-4 (+130) VS #7 DAN HOOKER 19-8 (-150)

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205LBS

JIM CRUTE 10-1 (+100) VS MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUIK 14-3 (-120)

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT 115LBS

#14 KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ 12-5 (+220) VS YAN XIAONAN 11-1 (-260)

HEAVYWEIGHT 265LBS

BEN SOSOLI 7-2 (+120) VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA 16-6-1 (-140)

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

BRAD RIDDELL 7-1 (+120) VS MAGOMED MUSTAFAEV 14-3 (-140)

FEATHERWEIGHT 145LBS

KEVIN AGUILAR 17-2 (-115) VS ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV 18-4-1 (-105)

PRELIMS:

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

JALIN TURNER 8-5 (-210) VS JOSHUA CULIBAO 8-0 (+175)

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

JAKE MATTHEWS 15-4 (-200) VS EMIL MEEK 9-4 (+170)

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

CALLAN POTTER 18-8 (+170) VS SONG KENAN 15-5 (-200)

FLYWEIGHT 125LBS

#8 KAI KARA FRANCE 20-8 (-260) VS TYSON NAM 18-10-1 (+220)

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT 115LBS

LOMA LOOKBOONMEE 4-1 (+155) VS ANGELA HILL 11-7 (-175)

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

MAKI PITOLO 12-5 (+120) VS TAKASHI SATO 15-3 (-140)

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125LBS

PRISCILA CACHOEIRA 8-3 (+180) VS SHANA DOBSON 3-3 (-220)

MATCHUPS TO TARGET:

#6 PAUL FELDER 17-4 (+130) VS #7 DAN HOOKER 19-8 (-150)

In every preview, if you haven’t noticed, I always discuss the main event as a fight target. This may be just the one to simply sit back and watch. These two will go at it in what looks to be the front runner for fight of the night even before the first bell. Both are coming in with back-to-back wins, looking to move up to possibly a contender eliminator-type matchup with a win Saturday night.

Felder will bring his “in your face” kickboxing with a strong clinch game. Hooker, the younger of the two, will look to utilize his range while controlling the pace, gunning for more output and keeping the dangerous Felder on his heels. Hooker will also have the crowd in his pocket and you’d have to think when he lands anything the place will be loud.

Hooker opened up at -120 and has been bet up to -150 and continues to climb. I’m really not surprised. That said, it’s hard to not find value in Felder. The guy is tougher than the steak I ate last night, and he only has two losses in the last five years. In both of those losses, he actually was injured. Against Francisco Trinaldo in 2016, the fight was stopped after a cut over his right eye just continued to get worse until the doctor called for the stop. Felder was heated as he was looking to continue. In his other loss against Mike Perry, Felder not only took the fight on short notice going up a weight division, but broke his right arm early on in the fight and continued on, losing a split decision. Like I said, the guy is tough. If you take away those injuries, we could be talking about a guy that hasn’t lost in the last five years.

Hooker himself only has one loss in his last seven fights, and that was against Edson Barboza, the man Felder just recently beat. It’s important to note that Felder actually commentated that Hooker/Barboza fight ringside, and saw first hand what it will take to beat this guy: leg kicks. Watch for Felder to close the range of Hooker, as this will be key for him in this matchup, and also mix in some leg kicks (just as Barboza did) right from the get go. We’ve seen Hooker not check kicks consistently in the past, which could not only sway some momentum in Felder’s direction, but also give him the advantage if this one goes into the later rounds. This to me looks like a live dog opportunity with Felder in this spot.

Prediction: Paul Felder

#14 KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ 12-5 (+220) VS YAN XIAONAN 11-1 (-260)

Kowalkiewicz has dropped three straight while Xiaonan is looking to make it 10 wins in a row with a victory in this spot. I believe we see her get it done as well.

When we go back and look at Kowalkiewicz’s recent streak, she suffered a nasty KO loss to former champ Jessica Andrade in less than two minutes, and followed that up with two decisive losses against Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso. She hasn’t won a single round in that span.

Although this will be a step up for Xiaonan, I believe her fighting style will pose problems for Kowalkiewicz. Xiaonan is fast, constantly throws combos and has some power. As of late, we haven’t seen the chin or output from Kowalkiewicz. She’s fought fairly hesitant offensively in comparison to what we saw from her before that knockout defeat. This is a tough spot to be in mentally too, after traveling 20+ hours from Poland to get here with this recent stretch of losses and a potential pink slip weighing on your mind.

Xiaonan's the pick for me. I’m not much of a parlay player, but this could be a spot to pair up with Dobson or Turner.

Prediction: Yan Xiaonan

JALIN TURNER 8-5 (-210) VS JOSHUA CULIBAO 8-0 (+175)

Turner was steamed a bit after weigh-ins and the line has shot up to -230 in some spots. I’m not saying the weigh-ins are why, but Culibao looked pretty fluffy for a lightweight.

Turner will have a five-inch height advantage, along with four inches of reach on his side against Culibao, who is making his debut under the bright lights. Although Turner has been KO’d three times and his chin is suspect, I don’t see him having any issues here.

Turner comes out fast, and while this kid is still looking to calm his nerves, Turner will probably take control and put him in danger early. All of Turner’s eight victories have come by way of finish in the first round. Interestingly enough, any fight of his that has gone past that initial round, he has lost. No pressure.

Prediction: Jalin Turner

QUICK PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCHUPS:

PAUL FELDER defeats DAN HOOKER

MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUIK defeats JIM CRUTE

YAN XIAONAN defeats KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ

MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA defeats BEN SOSOLI

MAGOMED MUSTAFAEV defeats BRAD RIDDELL

KEVIN AGUILAR defeats ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV

JALIN TURNER defeats JOSHUA CULIBAO

JAKE MATTHEWS defeats EMIL MEEK

SONG KENAN defeats CALLAN POTTER

KAI KARA FRANCE defeats TYSON NAM

LOMA LOOKBOONMEE defeats ANGELA HILL

MAKI PITOLO 12-5 (+120) VS TAKASHI SATO 15-3 (-140) CANCELLED

SHANA DOBSON defeats PRISCILA CACHOEIRA

Fight card prediction recap: 126-65-6

DFS NOTES:

HOW MMA DFS SCORING WORKS:

Lineup Requirements: Lineups will consist of 6 Fighters.

In salary cap contests, participants will create a lineup by selecting players listed in the Player Pool. Each player listed has an assigned salary and a valid lineup must not exceed the salary cap of $50,000.

Contest results will be determined by the total points accumulated by each individual lineup entry.

SCORING

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control.
A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.

Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his or her way to an unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five-round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
Always look for value at the top of my MMA DFS Heat Chart. Using fight-odds data and stacking the fighter lineup via odds to finish in comparison to DFS salary price can find you some spots. RED = HOT, BLUE = COLD. The chart also provides finish percentages, which validate odds even more if the matchup and past opponents’ strengths support the provided stats.
Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates via the Heat Chart, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Auckland. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on odds to finish the fight. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.