NFL Draft First-Round Odds: Over/Under on Skill Positions
The NFL Draft is fewer than 10 days away and we all have far more questions than answers. There doesn’t seem to be much consensus on the No. 1 pick, first QB drafted, first RB drafted, first WR drafted, first OL drafted or much else.
My exercise is determining the best over/under bets on how many skill-position players -- running backs, wide receivers and tight ends -- will be drafted in the first round.
Note: Over/under odds from SI Sportsbook
Running backs drafted in Round 1 (O/U 0.5)
A lot is made about the devaluation of the running back position in today's pass-friendly NFL. While there is merit to that argument, as often illustrated by a team's unwillingness to fork over large contracts to the position, the last time a running back was not selected in the first round was all the way back in the 2014 NFL Draft—eight long years ago.
That draft class was particularly stark in hindsight, headlined by Bishop Sankey to the Tennessee Titans at No. 54 overall. Some other names include Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde, Charles Sims, Tre Mason and Terrance West. The only back to make any waves from this class was Devonta Freeman, who was a reliable option in his 2015 and 2016 seasons and flirted with fantasy-relevancy last year with the Ravens.
Check NFL Draft Future Odds at SI Sportsbook
In Conor Orr's most recent NFL mock draft for Sports Illustrated, he has zero running backs drafted in Round 1. Kevin Hanson also has zero RBs in Round 1 and doesn't have one selected until Iowa State's Breece Hall at 37th overall. I'm taking it all in stride, though, because with the juice in our favor on the over at +138, I think this one is a slam dunk. At least one running back taken in the first round is the rule, not the exception as the narrative would have you believe.
There may not be an Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson in this class, but I'm willing to bet on one team liking Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker III as much as, if not more than the Chiefs liked Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd overall pick in 2020.
BET: Over 0.5 (+138)
Fred Vuich/Sports Illustrated
Wide receivers drafted in Round 1 (O/U 5.5)
Well, if running backs are so devalued, the offense has to come from somewhere and it's clear there is a league-wide shift going on in the thinking on wide receivers. How else can you explain the Chiefs willingness to trade Tyreek Hill or the Packers trading Davante Adams to the Raiders? Or the pending holdouts of Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin? Or what about contracts going to Christian Kirk, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, D.J. Chark, Zay Jones, Cedrick Wilson, Michael Gallup and JuJu Smith-Schuster? It seems many teams are trying to find value at the position rather than overspend, and there's no better value than a first-round receiver on a rookie deal.
But can we expect six wide receivers to go in Round 1? Six feels high—that's asking a lot. Let's see the recent history over the last five drafts: five WRs in Round 1 in 2021, six in 2020, two in 2019, two in 2018 and three in 2017. So it does seem we are trending towards the over. However, just because teams need receivers doesn't automatically mean there are a half-dozen prospects talented enough to hear their names called on Day 1.
In Conor Orr's most recent NFL mock draft, he has six wide receivers going in Round 1: Ohio State's Garrett Wilson at 10 to NYJ, Alabama's Jameson Williams at 18 to PHI, Treylon Burks at 22 to GB, Ohio State's Chris Olave at 23 to ARI, USC's Drake London at 27 to DET (via trade) and Penn State's Jahan Dotson at 29 to KC. Kevin Hanson also has six WRs in Round 1.
I think it's very common to hear a lot of discussion and debate about the order of your preferred WR prospects this year because there are just so many to like as late Day 1 to early Day 2 prospects. If the under hits on this prop, we're definitely going to see a whole mess of receivers go in Round 2. Thus, I do agree with Orr on the run at the position in the back-half of the first round as teams vie to get their guy. I could also see players like Georgia's George Pickens, North Dakota State's Christian Watson or Western Michigan's Skyy Moore in the mix.
BET: Over 5.5 (+138)
Tight Ends drafted in Round 1 (O/U 0.5)
If there's one position that can be hot or cold in Round 1, it's certainly tight end. Kyle Pitts was the fourth overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted TE in NFL history. Going backward in time, no tight ends were drafted in the first round in 2020, 2016 and 2015. In this Travis Kelce era, every team would love a big-bodied pass-catcher over the middle who can hold his own as a blocker, but it's a tricky position to learn and a more difficult one to master.
This draft is notable in that, as evidenced by the -654 juice on the under, there isn't a clear stud or even a particularly great prospect at the position. That's what the consensus says at least and I'm in agreement.
In Conor Orr's most recent NFL mock draft, he has zero tight ends going in Round 1. Kevin Hanson also has zero TEs in Round 1 and the first one, Colorado State's Trey McBride, drafted at 53rd overall.
McBride is frequently rated the top TE prospect. Texas A&M's Jalen Wydermyer and UCLA's Greg Dulcich are considered a couple of the other top guys at the position but I wouldn't be surprised if for the 32 teams in the NFL, there are 32 different top-five lists at the position.
Even if you bet $100 at -654, you'd only end up with $15.29 in winnings. Am I that confident no tight end drafted in Round 1? Conventional wisdom says, "anything can happen," but this is a bad class and conventional wisdom is boring. Value betting isn't always the answer.
BET: Under 0.5 (-654)
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