Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 27

The Guardians are favored at home on Monday night.

Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez is a solid prop target on Monday. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Rays have won four games in a row, and they’ll aim to extend that streak on Monday in their series opener with the Cleveland Guardians. 

Cleveland is one game over .500 this season, but it holds the top spot (tied with the Detroit Tigers) in the AL Central. 

Oddsmakers have set the Guardians as home favorites in this matchup, and they may have a massive advantage on the mound with lefty Parker Messick set to make his sixth start of the season.

Messick has a sub-2.00 ERA in the 2026 campaign, and he’s led the Guardians to a perfect 5-0 record in his outings. The Rays will counter with a lefty of their own in Steven Matz, who is coming off a rough outing in a loss to the Cincinnati Reds. 

Still, the Rays are 4-1 when the veteran is on the mound in the 2026 campaign. 

I’m eyeing a side and a player prop for this American League battle, which is the first of eight games on Monday, April 27. 

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rays +1.5 (-186) 
• Guardians -1.5 (+153)

Moneyline

• Rays: +113
• Guardians: -136

Total

• 8 (Over -118/Under -102)

Rays vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Tampa Bay: Steven Matz (3-1, 4.81 ERA)
• Cleveland: Parker Messick (3-0, 1.76 ERA)

Rays vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Monday, April 27
• Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Rays record: 16-11
• Guardians record: 15-14

Rays vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+355)

Looking for a long shot prop bet? 

In today’s Daily Dinger column for SI Betting, I shared why Jose Ramirez is a great bet against a lefty like Matz: 

Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez has hit six homers in the 2026 season, and he’s batting .295 with four homers over his last two weeks of action. 

Ramirez has been much better against left-handed pitching (hitting .281) in the 2026 season, and four of his homers have come against southpaws. That puts him in a great spot on Monday, as the Tampa Bay Rays have lefty Steven Matz on the mound.

This season, Matz ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel percentage and the 25th percentile in expected ERA. He’s allowed five home runs in five starts, including three in a recent loss to the Cincinnati Reds.

While Ramirez is just 2-for-11 against Matz in his career, his power this season has come when he’s hitting from the right side. I think the Guardians star is worth a look at this price, especially since the Tampa Bay bullpen is 26th in ERA and has given up 20 homers in the 2026 campaign. 

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Cleveland is the bet to make in this matchup: 

Tampa Bay Rays lefty Steven Matz had led his team to a 4-0 record to start the season, but he was rocked in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing four hits, four runs, three homers and four walks in just three innings of work.

Matz’s advanced numbers are extremely shaky this season, as he ranks in the 25th percentile in expected ERA (5.05), the 29th percentile in expected batting average against (.265), the 12th percentile in barrel percentage and the fifth percentile in ground-ball percentage. 

On top of that, Matz has multiple outings where he’s allowed at least four runs, pushing his ERA to 4.81 this season. 

Now, he takes on Cleveland lefty Parker Messick, who enters this start with a 1.76 ERA. The Guardians are 5-0 with Messick on the mound, and he has some impressive advanced numbers in 2026, ranking in the:

•  75th percentile in expected ERA (3.18)
• 95th percentile in chase percentage
• 91st percentile in barrel percentage
• 91st percentile in hard-hit percentage
• 81st percentile in average exit velocity against

So, Messick is inducing a lot of weak contact, and he's given up just 19 hits and eight walks in 30.2 innings of work. I’m buying Cleveland – which is 8-5 at home this season – to get a win on Monday night. 

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-136 at DraftKings)

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