Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff Headline Brewers Next-Level Starting Rotation
The growth of the Brewers' young arms allowed them to make the postseason in each of the past four years. In 2021, they allowed their fewest runs (623) since 1992 (604). Milwaukee has never won a World Series title in its 53-year history while making its only appearance in 1982.
Their pitching staff finished third in the majors in ERA (3.50) and first in strikeouts (1,618). The Brewers’ bullpen had more risk in ERA (4.02 – 14th), but their relievers won 44 games with 24 losses and 44 saves. Milwaukee ranked 12th in runs (738), 18th in home runs (194), and 11th in stolen bases (82).
They lost 3B Eduardo Escobar (NYM), OF Avisail Garcia, C Manny Pina, SP Brett Anderson, RP Brad Boxberger, and RP Hunter Strickland in the offseason to free agency. Milwaukee acquired OF Hunter Renfroe in a deal with the Red Sox for OF Jackie Bradley, SS David Hamilton, and 3B Alex Binelas. In a minor league trade with Tampa, Milwaukee added 2B Mike Brosseau. In addition, the Brewers signed C Pedro Severino and RP Trevor Gott.
Heading into 2022, The Brewers have the appearance of having three aces – Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. The backend of their rotation should be in good hands with SP Eric Lauer and SP Aaron Ashby while SP Adrian Houser works a bridge arm.
RP Josh Hader has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past four seasons. RP Devin Williams battled his command last year before rounding into elite form. Over the past couple of years, Milwaukee has done an excellent job finding complementary arms that have produced better seasons than their previous resumes.
Offensively, the Brewers only look league average while needing a massive rebound season from OF Christian Yelich. To make a deep run in the playoffs, they need a couple of players to have career years, and Milwaukee will need to fine-tune their starting lineup via free agency or an in-season trade.
The Brewers remain top contenders in the NL Central.
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Starting Lineup
2B Kolten Wong
Despite missing 46 games, Wong was on pace for his most productive all-around season in his nine years in the majors. With 550 at-bats, his stats would translate to 87 runs, 17 home runs, 62 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. He finished last year 99th in SIscore (-1.10) for hitters.
Wong spent time on the injured list twice with oblique and calf issues. He hit a higher average (.298) over his first 248 at-bats (41 runs, eight home runs, 24 RBI, and eight stolen bases). Over his final 197 at-bats, Wong posted a lower batting average (.239) with 29 runs, six home runs, 26 RBI, and four steals.
His walk rate (6.3) came in at a six-year low while not supporting a leadoff opportunity. He also slightly raised his favorable strikeout rate (16.9). Wong finished with better play vs. lefties (.297 with four home runs and 17 RBI over 138 at-bats).
He ranked poorly in barrel rate (5.5 – 228th) and hard-hit rate (34.8 – 236th).
Fantasy Outlook
Wong hasn’t had over 480 at-bats since 2015. His base skill set offers some help in power and speed, but he tends to be a liability in the other three categories. His ADP (189 – 115th batter selected) fits his stats from 2021 while leaving some room for growth if Wong pushes his at-bat total higher. Overall, I can’t trust even a 15/15 season in home runs and stolen bases, so my interest would only be piqued if he slid further in drafts.
3B Luis Urias
Urias turned into a beast at AAA in 2019 (.315 with 62 runs, 19 home runs, 50 RBI, and seven steals over 295 at-bats), but he’s failed to have any success in the majors over parts of three seasons (.226 with 43 runs, six home runs, and 40 RBI over 372 at-bats).
The Brewers gave him the best opportunity of his career last year, leading to career-highs in at-bats (490), runs (77), home runs (23), and RBI (75). His progression came from an improved approach (strikeout rate – 20.4 and walk rate – 11.1) and a spike in his average hit rate (1.787). In addition, Milwaukee gave him the most at-bats hitting first (122) and sixth (129) in the batting order. Urias showed strength in his RBI rate (16) in the big leagues each year.
His hard-hit rate (40.5 – 154th) was only league average while showing an uptick in his launch angle (14.2 – 129th).
Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .308 with 363 runs, 36 home runs, 219 RBI, and 42 stolen bases over 2,051 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Milwaukee should have him in the starting lineup on most days in 2022. He has the approach to hit in the top two spots in the starting lineup. I don’t consider him a 30 home run hitter, but I can’t dismiss his average hit rate (1.903) in 2019 at AAA. His ADP (152) may seem high to some fantasy managers, but Urias looks ready to raise his ceiling. His next step is .280 with 100 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, and I expect him to outperform his price point while offering the most significant edge at second base.
OF Christian Yelich
Last year I owned Yelich on a couple of teams, and his first-round price point led to him crushing my chances of winning. So before arriving at his profile, I had a preconceived notion that he was an avoid for me in 2022.
First, his stats projected over 550 at-bats came to 96 runs, 12 home runs, 70 RBI, and 12 stolen bases. These results translated to SIscore (-0.06) for hitters would price him as the 82nd batter.
An early-season back issue led to five weeks on the injured list. Then, in late July, he missed another 12 days with a battle with Covid-19.
Yelich lost his way against left-handed pitching (.187 with two home runs and 12 RBI over 107 at-bats). His walk rate (14.7) continues to be elite, and he had a rebound in his strikeout rate (23.8 – 30.8 in 2021 and 21.4 in his career) with improvement after the All-Star break (19.8).
His swing path continues to deliver a tremendous number of ground balls (54.4 percent – 55.4 in his career) and a juiceless HR/FB rate (13.2). However, Yelich did maintain a high hard-hit rate (48.8) and worm-killing launch angle (2.8 – 305th).
Fantasy Outlook
The walkthrough of Yelich’s outlook leaves me with this impression: A fantasy manager has to look at him as though he is a player more in line with his 2017 season (.282 with 100 runs, 18 home runs, 81 RBI, and 16 steals over 602 at-bats – a top 40 hitter in baseball) while understanding his bat still has a chance at delivering first-round value. His ADP (100) should rise if Yelich hits some bombs in spring training. He isn’t a player that should be finessed in drafts. Back issues can be tricky, but winning overall titles in the NFBC come from these types of gambles.
OF Hunter Renfroe
The Red Sox gave Renfroe almost everyday at-bats once his batted started to heat up in May (.319/18/6/15 over 91 at-bats). Over the year's final four months, he hit .260 with 64 runs, 24 home runs, and 73 RBI over 370 at-bats. His strikeout rate (22.6) improved to the league average while growing his walk rate (8.8).
Renfroe hit .225 over 1,410 at-bats from 2017 to 2020 with 186 runs, 93 home runs, 212 RBI, and 12 stolen bases with a weaker approach (strikeout rate – 28.3 and walk rate – 7.5).
His average hit rate (1.933) was a five-year low, but it still supports over 30 home runs. In addition, Renfroe played well with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). Playing Fenway treated him well (.287 with 53 runs, 14 home runs, and 56 RBI over 261 at-bats).
He continues to have a fly-ball swing path (43.3 percent). His hard-hit rate (44.3 – 86th), launch angle (15.6 – 94th), and barrel rate (14.4 – 31st) moved up the rankings.
Fantasy Outlook
The trick for Renfroe to build off of his breakthrough season is repeating his approach. The NL Central move looks neutral, and he won't have to face the Brewers' top arms. His ADP (164) in early February in the NFBC ranks him as the 103rd batter drafted while finishing 49th by SIscore (1.74) for hitters in 2021. Milwaukee should have Renfroe in the lineup on most nights, leading to a .250/75/30/80 type season.
1B Keston Hiura
Hiura hit .307 with 172 runs, 44 home runs, 146 RBI, and 26 stolen bases over 1,037 at-bats while owning a much more attractive strikeout rate (23.3) over four seasons in the minors. In 2019, he hit .313 with 95 runs, 38 home runs, 85 RBI, and 16 stolen bases over 527 at-bats between AAA and the majors.
His strikeout rate (34.0) has been a disaster with the Brewers while back-to-back years of regression (34.6 and 39.1). Hiura led the National League in strikeouts (85) in 2020.
After flashing with Milwaukee in 2019 (.303/51/19/49/9 over 314 at-bats), he only hit .192 over his last 390 at-bats with 46 runs, 17 home runs, 51 RBI, and six stolen bases).
When on his game, Hiura delivers an exceptional contact batting average (.416 in the minors and .391 with Milwaukee) and strength in his average hit rate (1.974 at AAA and 1.882 in the majors).
Fantasy Outlook
At age 25, many fantasy managers will cross Hiura off their cheat sheet due to his inability to make contact and his batting average risk. His ADP (454) leaves him snookered in the free-agent pool in most redraft formats. However, with the DH now in the National League, the Brewers have another opening in their lineup to start a power bat. Hiura may very well offer a hot streak, helping fantasy managers at some point in 2022. He is a worthy dart as his downside is a kick to the free-agent curb after being sent back to AAA, with his only damage coming from some underperforming at-bats. If his strikeout comes in under 30 percent, Hiura has the potential to hit .250 with 30 home runs and steal 10 bags.
1B Rowdy Tellez
Over the last three seasons, Tellez hit .241 with 103 runs, 40 home runs, and 113 RBI over 780 at-bats. He did a much better job controlling the strike zone over the past two years in the majors (strikeout rate – 18.8 and walk rate – 7.5), pointing to an improved opportunity with the Brewers. Tellez looks to be more than a platoon player based on his better batting average (.264 with eight home runs and 36 RBI over 22- at-bats).
His minor league resume (.276 with 284 runs, 76 home runs, 362 RBI, and 26 steals over 2,180 at-bats) points to more upside. In addition, his walk rate (10.0) graded well, with a favorable strikeout rate (17.9).
Tellez has had a high HR/FB rate (22.2, 21.6, and 25.0) in all three seasons with Toronto, but he lost his power stroke in 2021 (HR/FB rate – 12.4). His hard-hit rate (48.1) ranked 44th.
Fantasy Outlook
This fantasy draft season, Tellez projects as a backend corner infield or DH option. His ADP (314) seems fair, with Milwaukee expecting to give him a bump in playing time. With 450 at-bats, Tellez has the potential to hit .260 with 60 runs, 25 home runs, and 65 RBI while also chipping in with a couple of steals. Based on his low-dollar investment, I expect him to be a helpful player in NL-only leagues.
SS Willy Adames
Adames duffed his way through his first quarter of last season with Tampa Bay, leading to a .197 batting average over 132 at-bats with 16 runs, five home runs, and 15 RBI while whiffing 35.9 percent of the time. After a trade to the Brewers, his game reached a new ceiling. He hit .285 with 61 runs, 20 home runs, 58 RBI, and four stolen bases over 365 at-bats. His walk rate (11.4) and strikeout rate (25.4) with Milwaukee were the best of his career.
He finished with more loft with his swing path (fly-ball rate – 40.6 and 33.9 in his career). However, even with a career-high in home runs (25), Adames had a slight regression in his HR/FB rate (18.0). His hard-hit rate (44.7) finished 83rd, with a bump in his launch angle (16.8 – 69th).
When putting the ball in play in the majors, Adames had a high contact batting average (.384) while owning a rising average hit rate (1.838).
Fantasy Outlook
The coin toss on the 2022 value for Adames has more than two sides. His growth in power looks real, and he hits the ball hard enough to press higher in batting average with fewer strikeouts. Adames has a much lower ADP (131) this year as the 80th batter selected, falling in line with his stats in 2021. I only see a neutral three-category player with some drag in batting average and a handful of steals.
C Omar Narvaez
In 2019, Narvaez set career-highs in at-bats (428), runs (63), home runs (22), and RBI (55) while showing growth in his average hit rate (1.655). Unfortunately, he failed to match his success over the next two seasons (.247 with 62 runs, 13 home runs, and 59 RBI over 499 at-bats).
Last year, his strikeout rate (18.9) and walk rate (9.2) fell in line with 2019. Narvaez had fade in his average hit rate (1.510) in back-to-back seasons. He struggles against left-handed pitching (.152 with one home run and seven RBI over 66 at-bats).
After a nice start over his first 213 at-bats (.301/34/8/26), Narvaez has an empty feel over the All-Star break (.225 over 20 runs, three home runs, and 23 RBI over 178 at-bats).
Narvaez ranked 303rd in hard-hit rate (25.6) and 237th in barrel rate (5.1). He added more loft to his swing (launch angle – 17.9), but his HR/FB rate (8.6) barely rose.
Fantasy Outlook
His ceiling may be a 55/15/55 player at this point of his career. His ADP (257) ranks him 18th at catcher. Narvaez won’t see many at-bats against lefties, which limits his upside. Only a C2 in 12 and 15 formats.
OF Lorenzo Cain
After playing five games (6-for-18 with two RBI) in 2020, Cain opted out of the season due to concern with Covid-19.
Last year he missed 92 games with quad, hamstring, and hip issues. Cain had no answer against lefties (.206 with one home run and 12 RBI over 68 at-bats). His only playable stats come over his final 138 at-bats (.261 with 19 runs, five home runs, 21 RBI, and eight stolen bases).
Cain continues to have a ground ball swing path (51.0 percent), with a slight bounce in his HR/FB rate (11.6). In addition, his walk rate (9.1) and strikeout rate (16.8) fell in line with his career path.
Fantasy Outlook
Cain has a fading skill set, and his injuries continue to pile up. He’ll turn 36 in mid-April, suggesting his better days are behind him. His ADP (411) in the NFBC puts him in the free-agent pool in most formats.
OF Tyrone Taylor
The Brewers gave Taylor about a half-season of at-bats (243) last year, and he delivered replacement value stats (.247 with 33 runs, 12 home runs, 43 RBI, and six stolen bases). His strikeout rate (21.8) was about league average while walking 7.4 percent of the time. He struggled against right-handed batters (.220 with seven home runs and 33 RBI over 159 at-bats).
Over his nine years in the minors, Taylor hit .271 with 408 runs, 70 home runs, 375 RBI, and 89 stolen bases over 2,927 at-bats. His best success came in 2018 at AA (.278 with 73 runs, 20 home runs, 80 RBI, and 13 steals over 446 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Taylor will compete for a bench role this season. His overall profile falls more into the steady category. I view him as an injury-replacement type player in deep formats.
OF Garrett Mitchell
The future center fielder for the Brewers is Mitchell. His speed is electric while offering a difference-maker glove and exceptional arm. In 2019 in college, he hit .349 with 57 runs, six home runs, 41 RBI, and 18 stolen bases over 258 at-bats. Milwaukee snatched him with the 20th selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft.
His bat played well over his first 92 at-bats at High A, leading to a .359 batting average with 33 runs, five home runs, 20 RBI, and 12 stolen bases. However, after a promotion to AA, Mitchell looked overmatched at the plate (.186 with 16 runs, three home runs, 10 RBI, and five steals over 129 at-bats) while striking out 27.7 percent of the time.
Fantasy Outlook
Milwaukee should start him at AA again, followed by a quick push to AAA if his bat is ready. Mitchell could be a speed out later in the year. He is a must-follow in 2022.
David Richard/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Corbin Burnes
Burnes has been electric over his last 40 games (15-6 with a 2.34 ERA, 0.962 WHIP, and 322 strikeouts over 226.2 innings). He led the National League in ERA (2.43) and strikeouts (12.6) while making a tremendous step forward in his command (1.8 walks per nine).
Over his 28 starts, Burnes allowed two runs or fewer in 19 games, highlighted by four excellent appearances to start the year in April (one run over 24.1 innings with no walks and 40 strikeouts) and four other dominating performances over the year (no runs, 13 hits, and 54 strikeouts over 31.1 innings). The Brewers pitched him into the seventh in eight matchups.
He missed a couple of starts in early May with a Covid-19 issue.
His average fastball (96.5) was a career-best. Burnes threw a cutter as his top pitch (.230 BAA). Batters struggled to hit his curveball (.067 BAA), changeup (.186 BAA), slider (.176 BAA), and sinker (.238 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
The next step for Burnes is pushing his innings pitched per start (6.0 in 2021) by only one-third of an inning this year. With 32 starts with an average of 6.1 innings, he would pitch over 200 innings for the first time in his career. The growth in his arm comes from the addition and usage of his cutter (52 percent last year). Burnes ranked sixth in SIscore (6.41) for pitchers. His ADP (11) prices him as the third starting pitcher drafted in 2022. With repeated command, 15 wins with a sub 2.50 ERA and 275 strikeouts are with reach.
SP Brandon Woodruff
Other than wins, Woodruff has pushed up the pitching ranks for the third straight season. His walk rate (2.2) finished with the same status over his last 65 starts while also ranking highly in his strikeout rate (10.6). He allowed two runs or fewer in 22 of his 30 starts. Woodruff had a dominating run over 12 starts from April 7th to June 11th (5-2 with a 1.25 ERA, .138 BAA, and 92 strikeouts over 79 innings).
His average fastball (96.5) remains elite. Batters failed to gain an edge against any of his five pitches (four-seamer – .193 BAA, sinker – .231 BAA, changeup – .231, curveball – .136 BAA, and slider – .239 BAA).
Woodruff pitched into the seventh inning in one-third starts, but none over his final 11 starts. His one hidden negative was 15 home runs allowed over his last 108.1 innings (1.25 per nine).
Fantasy Outlook
The only thing holding Woodruff back from being a foundation ace are wins. He checks the command box with the arsenal to push his workload higher. His ADP (20) in the NFBC puts him in the top-tier conversation with the best arms in the game. Woodruff has 3.00 ERA and 445 strikeouts over his last 374.2 innings, which should be his floor again in 2022.
SP Freddy Peralta
Peralta had a breakthrough season in 2021, but he finished with minimal growth in his walk rate (3.5) while almost repeating his strikeout rate (12.2). Batters only hit .165 against him (.257 in 2019 and .204 in 2020).
After moving into the starting rotation on April 6th, Peralta went 9-3 with a 2.30 ERA, .139 BAA, and 156 strikeouts over 117.1 innings. He allowed over two runs in three of these 21 starts. However, the Brewers limited his innings over his final six games (5.40 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 25 innings).
His fastball (93.4 MPH) is about league average. Peralta has electric success with his four-seamer (.159 BAA), slider (.154 BAA), and low-volume curveball (.125 BAA). The move to the starting rotation led to him developing his slider and adding his changeup (.244 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
When a pitcher is tough to hit, his arm tends to have a much higher ceiling when finding improved command. His ADP (55) ranks him as the 15 starting pitcher drafted in the NFBC in early February. However, his lack of resume and questionable command invites some regression this year until Peralta shows he can handle a higher workload.
SP Eric Lauer
In 2020, Lauer suffered a left shoulder injury in March. With four months to recover, he looked ready for the late start of the season in July. However, a battle with Covid-19 led to a couple of days on the injured list. Lauer was a disaster over his four appearances (16 runs and 26 baserunners over 11 innings).
Over his first three seasons in the majors, he went 14-17 with a 4.75 ERA and 250 strikeouts over 272.2 innings. Surprisingly, Lauer helped fantasy teams last year over 118.2 innings (3.19 ERA and 117 strikeouts). His walk rate (3.1) improved slightly with help in strikeouts (8.9 per nine).
His average fastball (92.6) moved up slightly. Lauer has success with his cutter (.227 BAA), slider (.136 BAA), changeup (.217 BAA), and curveball (.160 BAA).
Over four seasons in the minors, Lauer had a 2.85 ERA and 207 strikeouts over 183 innings with better command (strikeout rate – 10.2 and walk rate – 2.8).
Fantasy Outlook
The Brewers have done an excellent job developing arms over the last few seasons. However, Lauer has an injury history with questions with his command. His ADP (315) eliminates any failure risk as fantasy managers can move on from him quickly if he struggles. Lauer also needs to clean up his damage in home runs allowed. I won’t fight for him in drafts, but I’ll also keep an open mind if he slides in drafts.
SP Aaron Ashby
Over his first three seasons in the minors, Ashby went 12-17 with a 3.75 ERA and 301 strikeouts. However, his walk rate (4.0) regressed as he moved up through the minors.
Despite struggling at AAA (5-4 with 4.41 ERA and 100 strikeouts over 63.1 innings), the Brewers called him up for a spot start (four runs and seven base runners over two-thirds of an inning) in late June. Later in the year, Ashby flashed out of their bullpen over 11 games (1.78 ERA, .168 BAA, six walks, and 38 strikeouts over 30.1 innings). Unfortunately, his season ended with a disaster outing (six runs, six baserunners, and one home run over two-thirds of an innings).
His average fastball (97.3) was electric in velocity. Ashby threw a plus slider (.109 BAA) and a developing changeup (.200 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Ashby has a short resume of success in the majors, but his fastball and strikeout rate will draw attention this draft season. His ADP (270) puts him above a flier range in 15-team formats. I expect WHIP risk until he cleans up his command. Ashby should move higher up draft boards if he wins a starting job out of spring training. Potential breakout arm.
SP Adrian Houser
Houser drifted through the minors for nine seasons (25-35 with a 4.21 ERA and 513 strikeouts over 572.2 innings) with no shining seasons on his resume.
In 2019 after four good starts at AAA (2-0 with 1.27 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 21.1 innings), the Brewers called him up. Houser had an up and down season in Milwaukee while working as a starter and reliever. He finished with a 3.72 ERA and 117 strikeouts over 111.1 innings.
After struggling in 2020 (5.30 ERA), Houser pitched well last year (3.22 ERA and .228 BAA) despite a poor walk rate (4.0) and an empty strikeout rate (6.5). However, he struggles with left-handed batters (.273 with 35 walks and 41 strikeouts over 227 at-bats). After the All-Star break, Houser has the best value (5-1 with 2.43 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 55.2 innings).
His average fastball (94.1) fell in line with his previous resume. Most of his success came from his sinker (.202 BAA) and four-seamer (.218 BAA). Houser has a below-par curveball (.284 BAA) and changeup (.286 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Houser is a head shaker for sure, as his profile didn’t add up to his success last year. His ADP (433) in the NFBC is well off my radar. The Brewers should give him a starting job in April while Aaron Ashby throws darts in their bullpen.
SP Ethan Small
The Brewers drafted Small with the 28th selection in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over his final two seasons in college, he went 15-6 with a 2.55 ERA and 298 strikeouts over 208.1 innings.
Small pitched well over his first 25 starts in the minors, leading to a 1.74 ERA and 128 strikeouts over 98.1 innings. However, his walk rate (4.9) regressed in 2021. He posted a 2.06 ERA over 35 innings at AAA despite issuing 21 walks with 24 strikeouts. Small missed some time in July and August with a finger injury.
He offers a low-90s fastball while owning an upside changeup.
Fantasy Outlook
Small isn’t that far away from the majors, but he needs to solve AAA first. His growth signal will be an improved command—player to follow if the Brewers need another starting arm.
Bullpen
RP Josh Hader
Hader converted 34 of his 35 saves last year while posting a career-low ERA (1.23). He finished with his best success in limiting the damage in home runs allowed (three over 58.2 innings). His most significant drawback from last season was his drop in innings pitched (.98 per appearance – 1.35 from 2018 to 2019). Hader never threw more than one inning in any game, and Milwaukee pushed him over 20 pitches in seven matchups.
His walk rate (3.7) remains a liability. Only one of his six hits allowed to lefties over 45 at-bats went for extra bases. Hader tripped up over six games in July (six runs, eight base runners, and three home runs over 5.2 innings).
His average fastball (96.4) was a career-high. Hader threw his four-seamer (.107 BAA) 65 percent of the time. His slider (.162) remains an electric pitch, and he added a changeup (.177 BAA) last year.
Hader pitches up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 46.3 and 51.1 in his career) with a career-low HR/FB rate (6.8).
Fantasy Outlook
Last year Hader ranked 15th in SIscore (4.34) for pitchers. He has league-leading upside in saves with a massive edge in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. His ADP (35) in early February in the NFBC requires more wins, saves, and strikeouts with a high level of success in ERA and WHIP to pay off. There is no dismissing his edge, so his draft value comes down to game plan.
RP Devin Williams
Williams started his career as a starter in the Brewers’ system after getting drafted in the second round in 2013. After missing 2017 with a right elbow injury that required TJ surgery, he struggled in 2018 as a starter over 14 games at High A (0-3 with 5.82 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 34 innings).
Milwaukee shifted him to the bullpen in 2019 with success at AA (7-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 53.1 innings with four saves).
In 2020, his arm exploded on the major league scene after allowing one run and eight hits over 27 innings with 53 strikeouts. Williams had an impressive strikeout rate (17.7) while walking three batters per nine innings. Eight of his nine walks came against left-handed batters over 62 at-bats.
Williams stumbled over his first 22 games last year, leading to a 4.43 ERA, .213 BAA, and 32 strikeouts over 20.1 innings. His struggles came from walks (14). Over his final 36 games, he went 7-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 33.2 innings. His season ended with a right hand injury that required surgery in October.
His average fastball (95.3) was about 1.5 MPH below 2020 while offering an electric changeup (.160BAA). Batters hit .275 vs. his four-seam fastball.
Fantasy Outlook
Williams has closing upside, but he needs to clean up his walk rate (4.7). The Brewers expect him to be ready for spring training. His ADP (315) gives him playable value for fantasy teams that want to micromanage ERA and WHIP rather than chase bad double stats.
RP Clayton Andrews
After an electric season in college (1.99 ERA and 118 strikeouts over 99.2 innings), the Brewers drafted Andrews in the 17th round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Over his first three seasons in the minors, he went 12-4 with a 3.01 ERA, 142 strikeouts, and 11 saves over 101.1 innings. His strikeout rate (12.6) creates an edge with some work to do in his walk rate (3.4).
His fastball sits in the low-90s while offering an upside curveball, league-average slider, and changeup that needs work.
Fantasy Outlook
This year, Andrews will repeat AAA after only pitching 9.1 innings in 2021 with an elbow issue. He could be a viable option if the Brewers need another lefty arm out of the bullpen. However, at 5’6” and 160 lbs., his ceiling doesn’t project to be a major league closer.
More fantasy baseball coverage:
- AL EAST: Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
- AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins
- AL WEST: Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers
- NL EAST: Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals
- NL CENTRAL: Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds
