San Francisco 49ers 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Jimmy Garoppolo Era Appears to Be Over
The San Francisco 49ers rode the legs and hands of WR Deebo Samuel in 2021 to a second trip to the postseason in three years. But, ultimately, their lack of quarterback play led San Fran one game short of a Super Bowl berth. This season, QB Trey Lance gets his chance to run the offense and show off his 2021 first-round draft pedigree. RB Elijah Mitchell flashed in his first year in the NFL, but he must prove he can stay healthy and handle a heavy early-down opportunity. In addition, San Francisco has a rising defense and two other robust receiving options (WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle). The 49ers will be in the heat of the battle again in 2022.
Offense
San Francisco wants to run the ball, and that opportunity should only improve with Lance expected to start this year. They have an excellent blend of front-line receivers, and WR Samuel brought the run to a whole new level over the second half of last season.
Quarterbacks
Trey Lance -- click here for fantasy projections
Jimmy Garoppolo
Coming into 2022, Garoppolo will be behind schedule due to surgery on his right shoulder in March. He finished last season with strength in his completion rate (68.3) and his yards per pass attempt (8.6). Garoppolo has been a winning quarterback (33-14) for the Patriots and 49ers.
Over his final nine games last year (including the postseason), he passed for 2,233 yards (248 per game) with only 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In the playoffs, Garoppolo gained 540 yards in three matchups with two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion rate (58.1) was a clear sign that his shoulder wasn’t healthy. When at his best, he passed for over 300 yards in five contests while failing to deliver more than two scores in any game.
Fantasy outlook: The 49ers want Lance to start, but Garoppolo could emerge at any moment if Lance struggles. At the very least, he will be a handcuff to Lance, but Garoppolo still won’t be a desirable fantasy starter.
Other options: Nate Sudfeld, Brock Purdy
Running Backs
Over three previous seasons, the 49ers’ running backs scored a combined 60 rushing touchdowns. They continue to gain more than the league average in yards per carry (4.6). However, the changes at running back last season led to a step back in chances in the passing game (82/647/2 on 98 targets).
Elijah Mitchell
To the dismay of fantasy drafters focused on Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert last year, Mitchell emerged as the 49ers’ Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 games during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, 21/119) with a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1). San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 matchups (including the playoffs).
Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion and knee issues. Mitchell had surgery on his knee after the season. The 49ers expect him to be ready for Week 1. Mitchell brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers’ offense.
Fantasy outlook: The only thing Mitchell didn’t do well in his rookie season was stay healthy. San Francisco made its running back bet in 2021, and the team should continue to give him the lion’s share of snaps this year. With 17 starts, Mitchell should have an easy floor of 1,500 combined yards with double-digit scores and a bump over 35 catches. In the NFFC, he has an ADP of 53 as the 24th running back selected. Mitchell plays in a great offense for the running back position while needing to clear the injury bug hurdle.
Trey Sermon
Between four seasons at Oklahoma and Ohio State, Sermon rushed for 2,946 yards on 455 carries with 26 touchdowns. He finished with a minimal role in the passing game (48/486/3). His 2020 season ended with a shoulder injury in the national championship game. Over his previous three starts, Sermon had 636 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 70 carries.
He profiles as a north/south runner with an occasional flash on the outside. Sermon can break some tackles, but his speed doesn’t separate him from the top-tier running back inventory. In addition, his value in the passing game isn’t high enough to command a third-down role in the NFL.
He gained 193 combined yards in his rookie season with one touchdown and three catches on 44 touches. A concussion issue knocked him out of action in Week 2 after a healthy scratch on opening day. His season ended in Week 12 with a right ankle injury.
Fantasy outlook: The first question fantasy drafters need to answer entering 2022 is whether Sermon has the game to be the top handcuff for Mitchell. The 49ers told the world who they believe in last year, so he now needs an injury to earn any valuable playing time. As a result, Sermon is only a player to follow for now until the coach-speak out of San Francisco paints a higher picture about his opportunity.
Tyrion Davis-Price
The 49ers added Davis-Price in the third round of the 2022 NFL draft. Over his three seasons at LSU, he gained 1,930 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 28 catches on 407 touches. His best chance in the run game came in 2021 (211/1,004/6).
Davis-Price runs with power and wiggle, but his lack of experience held him back at LSU. He brings vision with the fire to quickly attack the line of scrimmage after the snap. However, Davis-Price must learn more patience to get into a better rhythm with his offensive line. His value in the passing game looks limited early in his career, and fumbles may creep into his stat line.
Fantasy outlook: The 49ers drafted him high enough where Davis-Price may have the inside track to win their backup role.
Other options: Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty, Jordan Mason
Wide Receivers
The 49ers gave their wideout almost the same chances in the passing game in 2020 (281 targets) and 2021 (292 targets). The most significant difference came from a jump in their yards per catch (15.3) over the previous two seasons (14.0) and 12.8).
Deebo Samuel -- click here for fantasy projections
Brandon Aiyuk
After playing well in his rookie season (60/748/5) over 12 games, Aiyuk fell short of expectations last year while being outshined by Samuel by a wide margin. His catch rate (66.7) improved from 2020 (62.5), along with his yards per catch (14.8 – 12.5 in 2020), but the 49ers gave him only 4.9 targets per game. He finished with 56 catches for 843 yards and five scores, ranking him 35th in wide receiver scoring (171.50) in PPR formats.
His season started with emptiness over the first seven games (13/141/1 on 23 targets), making him unplayable in all fantasy formats. Samuel’s transition to a part-time runner led to Aiyuk picking up the pace over his final 10 matchups (43/685/4 on 61 targets), highlighted by four games (6/89/1, 7/85/1, 6/62/1, 6/107).
Fantasy outlook: For Aiyuk to reach a higher output, he needs the 49ers to throw the ball a lot more or an injury to either Samuel or TE George Kittle. He enters this season as San Francisco’s third option in the passing game. To reach WR2 status in PPR formats, Aiyuk must receive 115 targets in 2022, an increase of over 33% from last season. His ADP (98) in the NFFC ranks him 40th at wideout. Aiyuk should outperform his price point with a chance at 70 catches for 900 yards with 6-8 touchdowns.
Jauan Jennings
In his first season with snaps for the 49ers, Jennings created some mismatches due to his size (6’3” and 210 pounds), leading to five of his 24 catches resulting in scores. The 49ers only gave him 13 targets over his first 11 games (8/70/2). He flashed in Week 18 (6/94/2) while earning five targets per game over the final five matchups (16/212/3).
Jennings had a minimal opportunity over five seasons in college (146/2,153/19 on 213 targets). His best success came in 2019 (59 catches for 969 yards and eight touchdowns on 92 targets).
Fantasy outlook: Even if Jennings wins the WR3 for the 49ers, he won’t have enough chance to deliver starting fantasy stats in any format. At best, a deep bench player in best ball type leagues.
Danny Gray
The 49ers added Gray with their third-round selection in the 2022 NFL draft. He brings speed (4.33 40-yard dash) with two years of experience at SMU (33/448/4 and 49/803/9 on 121 combined targets). Gray will compete for a rotational WR4 role in his rookie season.
Other options: Ray-Ray McCloud, Malik Turner, Marcus Turner
Tight Ends
Three missed games by George Kittle led to a regression in catches (80), receiving yards (1,013) and targets (106) last year. Their tight ends gained over 1,000 yards over the past four seasons with seven scores a year from 2019-21. The improvement of the 49ers’ wideouts has also contributed to a decline in the tight ends’ opportunity.
George Kittle -- click here for fantasy projections
Other options: Tyler Kroft, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley
Kicker
Robbie Gould
To earn an every-week starting fantasy job, a kicker must bring an accurate leg with value from long range and stay on the field for all 17 games. Gould will turn 40 in December while missing eight games over the past three seasons. His career success rate (86.6) grades well, but he has had a diminished value from 50 yards or more (7-for-14) over the past four seasons.
Fantasy outlook: San Francisco should run the ball well in the red zone and convert many possessions into touchdowns in 2022. Gould fits more into the matchup category while not being a lock to suit up for every game.
Coaching
Kyle Shanahan enters his sixth season as the head coach of the 49ers. He is batting 2-for-5 over his first five trips to the plate, with his big hit coming in 2019 when San Francisco went 13-3 with a trip to the Super Bowl. His career record now stands at 39-42, putting his job at risk if the 49ers don’t meet expectations. He has 11 years of experience as an offensive coordinator while being in the NFL for 18 seasons.
San Francisco will roll without an official offensive coordinator, with Shanahan calling the plays. Chris Foerster is in charge of the offensive line with the run game coordinator title. Bobby Slowik will handle the passing game duties.
The 49ers bumped to 13th in points scored (427), 51 more than 2020. They had a higher finish (seventh) in yards gained.
DeMeco Ryans returns to run the defense for a second season. He spent the previous three seasons working as the linebacker coach for San Francisco. Ryans played 10 seasons in the NFL at linebacker before moving to the 49ers coaching staff in 2017.
San Fran ranked second, fifth and third in yards allowed over the past three seasons, but they continue to finish lower in the standing in points allowed (365 – ninth, 17th in 2020, eighth in 2019).
Free agency
The top four players added by the 49ers were CB Charvarius Ward, S George Odum, LB Oren Burks and WR Ray-ray McCloud. The net investment to acquire these assets was $59 million. San Fran lost G Laken Tomlinson, DT D.J. Jones, CB K’Waun Williams and DE Arden Key.
Draft
San Francisco didn’t have a selection in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. After adding DE Drake Jackson in the second round, the 49ers focused on improving their offense with their next three picks (RB Tyrion Davis-Price – 3.29, WR Danny Gray – 3.41, G Spencer Burford – 4.29). CB Samuel Womack, T Nick Zakelj, DT Kalia Davis and CB Tariq Castro-Fields were the choices in the fifth and sixth rounds. Their final dart came at quarterback (Brock Purdy – 7.41).
Offensive line
The 49ers climbed to seventh in rushing yards (2,166) with 22 touchdowns and 19 runs of 20 yards or more. They averaged 4.3 yards per carry with 29.4 attempts per game.
San Francisco slipped to 12th in the NFL in passing yards (4,437) with 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The 49ers had 63 completions over 20 yards. Their offensive line allowed 33 sacks.
LT Trent Williams dominated as a run blocker while also being an edge in pass protection. He has been sensational in his two seasons with San Francisco, with a 10-year history of delivering impact results. RT Mike McGlinchey missed nine games last season due to a torn quad muscle. He has a first-round draft pedigree (2018), but work is still needed in pass blocking. The interior of their line has questions at all three positions after C Alex Mack retired in early June.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, the plusses don’t outweigh the negatives for the offensive line this year. Running up the middle could be more challenging, and more pressure should be expected in the pass rush. This line looks below average, but it could be better than expected with coaching and if their depth shows growth in 2022.
Defense
San Francisco pushed up to seventh in rushing yards allowed (1,760). They gave up 4.0 yards per rush, with ball carriers scoring 17 touchdowns with 11 runs over 20 yards.
The 49ers dipped to sixth in passing yards allowed (3,510). Quarterbacks gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and 54 completions of 20 yards or more. Their defense finished with 48 sacks.
DE Nick Bosa is a beast in the pass rush (15.5 sacks) while setting a career-high in tackles (52). Unfortunately, his run defense fell below expectations after playing well in that area over his first 18 games in the NFL. DT Arik Armstead added more pressure on the quarterback last year, but he also came up short defending the run. DT Javon Kinlaw missed 13 games last season with a torn ACL. The 49ers added him in the first round in 2020. San Francisco hopes incoming rookie DE Drake Jackson can upgrade the pass rush on the outside after being taken in the second round of this year’s draft.
Other than LB Fred Warner, the second level of the 49ers’ defense has multiple questions that need to be answered. Ultimately, San Fran won’t get many sacks from its linebackers, but they need to slow down the run game and handle their responsibilities in pass coverage.
S Jimmie Ward continues to tackle well while improving San Francisco’s defense in run support. He tends to minimize the damage in scoring in coverage with an occasional blown assignment in the passing game. CB Charvarius Ward helps in coverage, but the 49ers don’t have an edge at their other two positions in the secondary.
San Francisco’s defensive line sets the tone for their success. If they can stop the run and get to the quarterback, the rest of the defense can cover for some deficiencies. Therefore, they are a top 10 fantasy defense with more upside if a couple of players improve at linebacker and the secondary.
2022 FANTASY OUTLOOKS
AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
