Astros’ Outfield Remains Question Mark Heading Into October

The Houston Astros expected to solve part of their most pressing offensive problem in the outfield after the trade deadline. They have not been able to do so. The arrival of Daulton Varsho was an important acquisition that could improve the team in the long term, but so far he has fallen short of expectations.

Varsho did not arrive in Houston at a good time. After producing a 116 wRC+ and .786 OPS in June, he has gone through a terrible offensive slump. He finished July with a puzzling .482 OPS and 35 wRC+.

The worst news for the Astros is that Varsho has not moved the needle on his OPS, which remains at .482. His 44 wRC+ shows a slight improvement, fueled in part by a return of his plate discipline: a 13.2 BB% this month after falling to 4.6% in July.

Yes, there is hope that Varsho can recover at the plate, and it is clear that Houston’s outfielders’ offensive inconsistencies have a much more concerning history. Among all American League teams, the Astros rank last in wRC+ (91), AVG (.220), OBP (.298), BABIP (.271), and wOBA (.300), while also having the highest strikeout rate (25.7%).

At the same time, there are some interesting positives: they rank fourth in home runs (46), sixth in ISO (.161) and BB% (9.0). Plate discipline is something Varsho can help with, and hitters like Taylor Trammell (13.7%) and LaMonte Wade Jr. (19.4%) have contributed so far in the second half of the season. However, it is still not enough to turn the Astros’ outfield production into a powerhouse.

Cam Smith Is Making the Step Houston Hoped For

Houston Astros left fielder Joey Loperfido (10) and right fielder Cam Smith (11). Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last year, in his debut, Cam Smith left a good impression with his tools. At 22 years old, he received the opportunity to play in 134 games and, although he had to battle at the plate, he made a positive contribution to the team. In 493 plate appearances, he posted 1.0 fWAR and a 90 wRC+ with a combination of flashes that mixed a little bit of everything.

For this season, Houston was mainly expecting adjustments in his plate discipline, working more on pitch recognition and trying to regain the skills he showed when he posted a .320 BABIP.

So the jump this season is beginning to look like a real breakout. Smith has set career highs with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and 34 extra-base hits, including 15 doubles and three triples. His power production has contributed to the decline in his BABIP (.260), but Smith’s aggression has translated into more production. In 121 games, he has posted 1.6 fWAR, a 92 wRC+, and has been a better baserunner, contributing 3.4 Base running runs above.

Some of his biggest adjustments in the batter’s box have come after a quiet first half of the season, especially in power production.

First half: .219/.292/.378, .671 OPS, 88 wRC+ in 360 PA.
Second half: .241/.294/.468, .762 OPS, 111 wRC+ in 85 PA.

Although Smith is walking a little less in the second half (4.70 BB% versus 8.60% in the first), his on-base percentage is similar because it has been sustained by an improvement in the quality of his contact. His ISO has also climbed to another level (.256 versus .159), and his BABIP (.294) is closer to his mark from last year.

The Defense Still Hasn’t Found Stability

Houston Astros center fielder Taylor Trammell (26). Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Even so, the Astros need Smith to have more company on both offense and defense. Varsho is a premier defensive addition, and Smith’s improvements have brought him to 2 DRS this season.

If the stability of the outfield depended only on them, Houston’s defensive problems would not be as frequent. Including the positive contributions of Varsho and Smith, the Astros rank 17th with a negative DRS of -7.

Among the rest of the group, Brice Matthews (5), Joey Loperfido (1), and Jake Meyers (0) have provided the best defensive results, but Trammell (-6) and Wade Jr. (-2), who have brought offensive production in the second half of the season, have been the worst outfielders defensively.

After acquiring Varsho, the Astros were looking for a caliber outfielder who could provide offense, experience, and, above all, defensive leadership. Even in his worst defensive version over the last two months, Varsho remains an elite fielder. Houston has found a much more solid version of Cam Smith, but it still needs to solve the outfield’s inconsistencies before October.

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