Astros Timely Hitting Woes Reflected in Key Stats

Though the clutch numbers may appear average, a deeper dive may reveal some deeper cracks.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Astros have hit a rough patch in their quest to reenter the American League race for the wild card and division. They’ve lost four in a row and six out of their last seven. After winning six of seven series, the Astros have dropped three consecutive series.

The starting pitching has been a problem over the course of the whole season, but untimely hitting has also played a factor magnified over the course of the last three games.

The numbers with runners in scoring position don’t look so bad with a .245 average and a .743 OPS in 953 plate appearances this season. In high leverage situations (when the game is at its most critical points), the numbers look slightly worse with a .723 OPS in 427 plate appearances coming into Sunday’s game.

Houston Astros designated hitter Christian Walker | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

But there’s more to clutch hitting that doesn’t show up in an OPS. Sacrifice flies help the team but actually hurt your on-base percentage, one of the components of OPS. Other productive outs, including those that advance a runner home with less than two outs or to third with less than one out, also hurt your numbers. And this is where Houston has really struggled.  

Runners On Third With Less Than Two Outs

After Sunday’s game, the Astros sit at 47.8% in getting the runner in from third with less than two outs. That number declined after going 0-for-2 in such situations on Sunday.

The league average in that category is 51.5%, ranking the Astros in the bottom seven in MLB. Jose Altuve, who failed to get the winning runner home from third with no outs in the 10th on Saturday, has particularly struggled in these scenarios with runners scoring in only two of 13 situations with a runner on third and less than two outs. That accounts for a 15.4% rate, the worst in baseball this season for any of the 207 batters who’ve hit in these situations at least 13 times.

Runners On Second And No Outs

The scene on Saturday in the 10th played out even worse with a sacrifice fly attempt turning into a double play at the plate. But Houston has also struggled even more at getting the runner over to third with no outs. In that situation, the Astros get the runner to third or better 46.8% of the time (74-for-158). The league average is 52% and Houston ranks in the bottom three in this category with Christian Walker standing out as 6-for-20 (30%).

When the Astros get a baserunner on, the confidence is low that they’ll bring them in with situational hitting this season. Baserunners score on 13.5% of plate appearances with runners on the bases this season for Houston, bottom six in MLB.

Despite an offense with above average numbers (103 OPS+), the Astros have lacked the timely non-hits that are so vital to scoring runs. Things need to improve in these scenarios if Houston wants any shot to return to the AL race.