The Biggest Decision Facing Joe Espada Before Game 1

The Houston Astros will open Game 1 against the White Sox with A.J. Blubaugh, in what will be a bullpen game for both teams at Daikin Park.

The right-hander has made only three starts in his career, all coming in his debut during the 2025 season with the Astros, when he went 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and accumulated 0.7 bWAR. This season, Blubaugh had a key role in Houston’s pitching staff, going 5-3 with a 3.66 ERA, one save, and leading relievers with 96 innings in 64 appearances, including 35 appearances of more than one inning.

The Astros used 19 different starters, and Blubaugh, as a reliever, recorded more innings than 17 of them. Only right-handers Peter Lambert, with 155 2/3 innings and Hunter Brown, with 107 1/3 innings, accumulated more innings throughout the year. Blubaugh also led all relievers in Major League Baseball in innings, surpassing Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Aaron Ashby, who accumulated 87 innings.

The real dilemma will be how much to give Blubaugh

Houston Astros pitcher AJ Blubaugh (69). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Although the Astros will not have Brown, their starter for Game 1 against the White Sox, Blubaugh’s presence as an opener could offer depth, a fundamental part that they need. The key to the postseason for both teams could be in Game 1, and it may not even have exactly to do with the result. What it could influence the most is which bullpen ends up getting worn down more before Game 2.

For the Astros, an opening of at least two innings would be a great start for Blubaugh, as long as he keeps the team in the game. But here are a couple of details that Espada cannot overlook: Blubaugh posted a 9.31 ERA in his last 10 appearances, allowing at least one run in six of them. The other point to consider is that he has pitched more than one inning only once in his last 12 relief appearances, so he is a little more rested. During that recent stretch, he has accumulated three holds, has one blown save and, what is most concerning, eight strikeouts and an equal number of walks, with three home runs allowed.

The reality is that the version of Blubaugh who often pitched multiple innings and was dominant is not the one that has arrived in October. In particular, September was a difficult month after a season in which Blubaugh’s workload had been considerable. In fact, before reaching the final month of the season, in 12 relief appearances between July 31 and Sept. 3, Blubaugh went 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA, 18 strikeouts, three walks and only one home run allowed. In that stretch, he recorded four holds and one save.

The problems came afterward. It should also be taken into account that, during the regular season, Blubaugh made three appearances against the White Sox and did not allow runs in four innings. Those relief appearances came in the middle of the aforementioned stretch, and he picked up a win on Sept. 2 when Houston defeated Chicago 2-0.

However, despite not allowing runs, Chicago produced against his pitches at a combined 6-for-17, with a .353 average, three strikeouts and two walks in that small sample. The worst part is that those six hits were produced by five hitters: Brenton Doyle (2-for-2), Chase Meidroth (1-for-2), Braden Montgomery (1-for-2), Munetaka Murakami (1-for-2), and Tristan Peters (1-for-2, triple).

Still, we cannot rule out Blubaugh making adjustments and being able to go beyond facing the batting order once. When he did it during the regular season, his performance as a reliever did not decline. Opponents hit .217 against him the first time he faced the batting order, and .250 the second time. The batting average went up a little, although it remains low, but Blubaugh’s ability to strike out and avoid walking opponents improved from a 12.9 K-BB% to 15.0.

And that is where Espada has to find the best balance to know how long he should keep Blubaugh, when it is time to move on to other relievers and who will be the right one. If Blubaugh can go beyond two innings and deliver a dominant performance, then Espada would be getting more than he expected, and the number of innings to cover before reaching Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader would be lower.

That will be one of the biggest challenges for Espada and the Astros in Game 1: trying to get through with Blubaugh in a bullpen game that could impact the stability of Houston's pitching in the short best-of-three Wild Card series.

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