Biggest Advantage Astros Have Against White Sox (and Biggest Concern)

This will be the third time the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox face each other in the postseason, and the first time since the 2021 ALDS, when Houston got its revenge by winning 3-1 to even the October history, 16 years after Chicago swept them 4-0 in the 2005 World Series.

Back then, the Astros belonged to the National League. In 2005, Chicago won its first championship since 1917 after surviving a challenging World Series that was much more competitive than the final result showed. Paul Konerko changed Game 2 with a grand slam against Chad Qualls, when Houston was leading 4-2 in the bottom of the seventh inning.

That was not the end of the story, as Houston tied the game at 6-6 in the top of the ninth with an RBI single by Jose Vizcaino against the White Sox closer, the hard-throwing Bobby Jenks. But in the bottom of the ninth, Scott Podsednik responded with a walkoff home run against Brad Lidge to sensationally decide the game. One day later, Geoff Blum decided Game 3 with a solo home run that broke the 5-5 tie in the top of the 14th inning.

Jermaine Dye was the hero of Game 4, producing the only run of the game with a single to start the eighth, a clutch hit that earned him the World Series MVP after an unforgettable pitching duel between the winner, Freddy Garcia, and Houston starter Brandon Backe.

In 2021, Houston won the first two games. Chicago responded by winning 12-6 in Game 3, after a comeback in the third inning, when they were trailing 5-1. However, they could not get any further. Houston won Game 4 by a 10-1 blowout and advanced to the ALCS for the fifth consecutive time.

The Astros’ biggest advantage is their pitching

Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown (58). Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros led the series 5-2 during the regular season against the White Sox, limiting their offense to just a .655 OPS. So, although pitching was key, the biggest advantage lies in the overall impact of the Astros’ game against Chicago. Overall, it was a series in which pitching prevailed, and there are several interesting points to highlight. Let’s start with the runs, as Houston dominated 31 to 28. Yes, the three-win difference was not reflected in the same way in the run production.

However, there is a turning point here, and it is that Chicago scored 12 of its 28 runs and five of its six home runs in a single game, on July 26 when it won 12-3. Not counting that 12-run game, the White Sox’s average runs per game in the six remaining games dropped from 4.0 to 2.7, with just one home run.

Here are the differences in the offensive line:

In the seven games: .210/.323/.332/.655

Without the 12-run game: .185/.284/.246/.530

Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami (5). Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The averages drop completely, and reveal the true trend of a powerful offense that was shut down by the Astros’ pitchers. The other key point here is that most of the offensive impact once again fell on the at-bats of Chicago’s power trio, made up of Munetaka Murakami (two home runs, 7 RBI and a .825 OPS), Colson Montgomery (one home run, five RBI and a .788 OPS) and Miguel Vargas (one home run, .701 OPS).

The three combined for four of the White Sox’s six home runs against the Astros, 51.9% of the RBI (14 of 27) and 46.7% of the extra-base hits (7 of 15). The offensive line was low in contact, but they produced power while hitting .234/.341/.429, with a .769 OPS, with a 13.2 BB% and 23.1 K%.

A large part of that dominance was established by Hayden Wesneski (7 IP), AJ Blubaugh (4 IP), Bryan Abreu (3 2/3 IP), Josh Hader (2 2/3 IP) and Steven Okert (2 IP), who have combined for 19 1/3 innings without allowing a run against Chicago, with 21 strikeouts and just six walks. If we add Hunter Brown (13 IP, 2 ER, 14 K, 2 BB) to that group, then the streak is 32 1/3 innings with only two earned runs allowed, 35 strikeouts, eight walks and a 0.56 ERA.

The Astros will need most of these performances to be repeated, but so far, they have the advantage, and Chicago will be the one that has to prove otherwise.

Houston’s biggest concern will be the lack of timely hitting

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44). Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

During the final two months of the regular season, the Astros’ offense went through several droughts in terms of run production. Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña and Christian Walker went through prolonged slumps at the plate, and the offense could not sustain itself enough when they needed the big hit the most.

The lineup’s problem was not that they were failing to reach base. The problem was productivity, which dropped especially during the final month of the season and also depended on the game situation. Houston hit .272/.335/.467 with runners in scoring position during September, a collective performance above average. But when we go deeper to stop and analyze which part of those situations were actually decisive in achieving victories, then the picture changes considerably. High Leverage situations demonstrate it, with a drop in wRC+ from 116 in RISP situations to 52.

The Astros had one home run in those types of situations, and it came from Walker. Strikeouts increased by 5.6% and the offensive line fell to .204/.294/.259, with just a .553 OPS.

Houston High Leverage Aug at Sep. | FanGraphs.

As you can see, this time Yordan topped the ranking but in the opposite sense of the impact that defined his great season as one of the main MVP candidates. He has averaged just –61 wRC+ in his last 15 plate appearances in High Leverage situations since August. His OPS is just .433, he has only a .111 BABIP and, yes, his ISO is .000, as he has not recorded any extra-base hits. That drop also influenced him losing the possibility of winning the Triple Crown, in addition to the late surge by Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso.

But Yordan has not been the only swing that has frozen in the Astros’ lineup. Most of the hitters were getting stuck without being able to produce when the team needed it the most, especially to support the pitchers’ performances. Isaac Paredes (157 wRC+) and Yainer Diaz (154) have been the only hitters who have not gone cold during this final month.

Houston averaged 4.3 runs per game during September, but without counting the 46 runs they scored in their final six games—two against the Seattle Mariners and four against the Athletics—they entered the decisive week with just 3.2.

Houston Astros catcher Christian Vazquez (2). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In only 10 of the 23 games during September did they score five or more runs, and in only two did they score more than seven, and those came in the final two victories of the season, by 13-2 and 9-0 against the Athletics. The bullpen received several criticisms because there were games in which they could not hold the lead, but the reality is that, with a more productive offense, it is likely that Houston would have let fewer victories slip away.

When the Astros scored three or fewer runs in September, they finished 3-9, and that was a trend they have not been able to overcome all year, as they have a losing record of 18-58 throughout the season when they score three runs or fewer. In other words, once the offense falls below the average of 4.5 runs, the margin for error for the pitching and defense is drastically reduced.

That does not mean that this Wild Card series will be dominated by pitching as it happened during the regular season. So I think the offense will make the difference in the series, especially when both teams begin Game 1 with the bullpen.

Add us as a preferred source on Google