A Big Reason Blue Jays Offense Has Taken a Step Backward in 2026
In this story:
Let's cut to the chase.
The Blue Jays are chasing too many pitches out of the zone.
Monday night, it may have cost them a pivotal win against the Yankees.
Toronto had the Yankees' closer, David Bednar, on the ropes. Bednar had entered the game in the top of the ninth with New York leading 7-5.
Ernie Clement walked. Jesus Sanchez doubled him in to make it 7-6. After Brandon Valenzuela struck out, Yohendrick Piñango battled Bednar to work a seven-pitch walk. Toronto had runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out, down by a run.
The top of the order was coming to the plate with George Springer, followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bednar then threw three straight balls to George Springer. One more ball, and Vladdy is up with one out and the bases loaded. The next three pitches were all splitters out of the strike zone. Springer swung and missed at all three.
Vlad then grounded out.
Game over. Opportunity lost.
Pitches 4 and 5 to Springer were just on the outer edge of the shadow zone, so they likely would have been called balls had he taken them. Pitch six was not even close.
Chasing Bad Pitches is Hindering Toronto's Offense
Hitting a baseball is perhaps the most difficult act in sports. The very best hitters fail seven times out of ten. Difficult, however, does not always mean complicated. Ted Williams co-authored The Science of Hitting in 1968. He had three rules for htting.
Rule #1 - Get a Good Ball to Hit
Springer's at-bat is illustrative of one of the main reasons Toronto's offense has gone from 4th in MLB last year to 23rd this year in runs per game. Hitting coach David Popkins' philosophy boils down to swinging hard at hittable pitches with the intent to do damage. Blue Jays batters are not executing on the hittable pitches part of that formula.
Why Are The Blue Jays Chasing So Much More This Year?
There are two natural follow-on questions. Is this due to the injuries to Kirk, Barger, Springer, Lukes, etc.?
And who is chasing significantly more than last year at an individual level?
Let's take them one at a time.
The short answer about the injuries is that they are not the main culprit. Springer had the team's lowest chase rate in 2025 at just 20.5%, but that is largely offset by no longer including Bo Bichette's over 35% chase rate, which ranked 2nd highest on the team. Barger, Kirk, and Lukes also all had chase rates above league average last season.
On the second question, several key hitters have materially worse chase rates in 2026.
The one who stands out the most, both because of his importance to Toronto's offense and his lack of home run power so far this year, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr., was perhaps the most famous bad-ball hitter of all time. In this regard, though, Vladdy is not his Daddy.
If the Blue Jays want to be chasing champagne with beer come October, they need to start swinging at better pitches.
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Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for SI.com. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.