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Inside The Blue Jays

This Dylan Cease Problem Hurt Blue Jays Again in Loss to Athletics

Toronto rallied from a 5-1 deficit, but an inconsistent night from Dylan Cease and the right-hander’s history against the Athletics ultimately mattered more than the bullpen.
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease (84). Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease (84). Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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It would be easy to summarize that the Toronto Blue Jays lost to the Athletics on Monday night because of a bullpen slip.

Louis Varland entered the bottom of the ninth with the score tied 5-5 thanks to a solo home run by Andrés Giménez—his ninth of the season—that tried to rescue Toronto with one out in the top of the ninth.

Varland could not dominate this time as he usually does, avoiding contact. He allowed a pair of infield singles and issued two walks. Jeff McNeil reached on a grounder through the shortstop area with the bases loaded to record the walk-off single that gave the Athletics a 6-5 victory in the bottom of the ninth.

That was the only run the Blue Jays’ bullpen allowed over 3 2/3 innings. But the real reason for the collapse was Toronto’s poor offense and another inconsistent start against the Athletics from American League Cy Young Award candidate and ace Dylan Cease.

Cease lasted only five innings, allowing just four hits but five runs, four of them earned. The Athletics attacked him with one of their best weapons: speed. Catcher Alejandro Kirk had a night to forget, as the Athletics stole five bases off Cease. Kirk could only throw out one runner, but the caught stealing only remained on the scoresheet because a throwing error by third baseman Kazuma Okamoto opened the door for Zack Gelof to score.

Between Henry Bolte, who stole three bases, and Gelof, who stole two, the Athletics disrupted Cease, scoring a pair of runs in the first and third innings, respectively. Later, in the fifth, Bolte survived after two consecutive foul balls and hit a solo home run to right field to make it 5-1. Cease had not allowed a home run against his fastball since the end of last month, when Dominic Canzone hit a solo home run against him on Aug. 28 at Rogers Centre during the Blue Jays’ 8-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners.

From June 1 through Monday night, Cease had allowed that one home run by Canzone against his fastball, holding opponents to a .135 batting average (17-for-126) with 46 strikeouts. Toronto responded with a three-run rally in the seventh, beginning with Okamoto’s 29th home run, a Giménez double and a sacrifice fly by Josh Smith. After Giménez’s home run in the ninth, Brett Bateman walked, but George Springer (5-0) struck out for the second time that night to end the inning.

Cease Arrived in Sacramento at His Best

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84).  Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84). Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Cease’s season has been a major success for the Blue Jays. On Monday night, he took the mound for his 27th start of the season. He had allowed only one run in his previous seven road starts, posting a 0.18 ERA (1 ER/48 2/3 IP) and a 0.70 WHIP, with a 34.7% strikeout rate and a 35.9% chase rate while limiting opponents to a .107 batting average.

Among qualified American League pitchers, Cease ranked first in strikeout rate (35.5%), whiff rate (33.8%), FIP (2.42) and opponents’ batting average (.176), while ranking second in strikeouts (221), swinging-strike rate (15.6%), fWAR (5.4) and ERA (2.25). This season, Cease became the first pitcher to record 200 or more strikeouts in six consecutive seasons since Max Scherzer (8, from 2012 to 2019) and Chris Sale (7, from 2013 to 2019), and he has been the fastest pitcher in Toronto history to reach 200 strikeouts in a season, doing so in 23 games.

Before pitching in Sacramento, Cease had posted a 1.44 ERA over his previous four starts, allowing only four runs while striking out 30 opponents in 25 innings. The most predictable expectation was another dominant outing from Cease. Instead, the numbers pointed to an interesting twist. Against the Athletics, Cease had made eight career starts against them, and Monday marked his second at Sutter Health Park.

The last time he faced the Athletics was in the season-opening series, on March 28 at Rogers Centre, when he dominated them over 5 1/3 strong innings, allowing one run on three hits and two walks while striking out 12.

The Athletics Have Always Been Different for Cease

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease (84). Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease (84). Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, this is where the story begins to change in a surprising way: Cease had a 5.44 career ERA against the Athletics.

That was his worst ERA against any opponent he had faced for at least 40 innings in his career, followed by the New York Yankees (2-3, 4.86), Minnesota Twins (5-5, 4.62) and Tampa Bay Rays (1-4, 4.53). After allowing five runs over five innings against the Athletics on Monday night, Cease saw his ERA against them rise to 5.63 over 48 innings. But that is not the worst news, as over the last two seasons, that ERA has ballooned to 8.79, with 14 earned runs and 16 hits allowed in 14 1/3 innings against the Athletics.

After throwing 94 pitches, the Athletics scored as many earned runs against Cease as he had allowed over his previous three starts and, although Varland ultimately took the loss, a dominant outing at the level Cease has shown would have solved the situation in Sacramento. The Blue Jays still need durability and dominance from their starters, as well as better production from the offense with runners in scoring position. On Monday, they went 1-for-5 in those situations and still managed to erase a 5-1 deficit.

Now they have fallen back below .500 at 72-73 and are one game behind the Cleveland Guardians (73-72), who temporarily moved into the third Wild Card spot. Toronto is 19-22 in one-run games, but at this point in the season, every one of those games that gets away will cost much more than it does in a simple win-loss record.

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Yirsandy Rodriguez
YIRSANDY RODRIGUEZ

Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.

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