The Fall of Blue Jays' Max Scherzer’s Best Weapon
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Before being shelled by the Tampa Bay Rays in his most recent start last Wednesday at Tropicana Field, Max Scherzer had put together his best four-start stretch of the entire season.
He did it between his final start of July and his first three starts of this month. His ERA was 2.37, with a 2.83 SO/BB ratio and 0.95 HR/9. The previous best performance over a four-start span perfectly describes the 2026 version of Max Mad: a 7.16 ERA, a 2.00 SO/BB ratio and 2.20 HR/9.
Yes, as you can see: more than two home runs per nine innings and a slight drop in strikeouts. Many innings were plagued by situations he could not solve at anything close to the level of his version from the last three seasons.
Still, there were hopes surrounding his recovery after returning from the injured list in the second half of the season.
However, some of the improvements we had seen in his slider, an increase in his strikeout rate and less hard contact allowed, were destroyed by the Rays.
Scherzer allowed seven runs in four innings, four of them during a devastating rally at the end of the fourth inning. He once again gave up solid contact. Yandy Díaz hit a two-run home run off him in the first inning, the 12th he has allowed all season. Those 12 home runs have come in 45 innings, which makes Scherzer’s 2.40 HR/9 the worst mark of his career.
The Fall of His Best Weapon
During his first 16 of 19 seasons in the Majors, Scherzer posted a positive fWAR. He was always above 1.0 if we use the FanGraphs version. In his last seasons, those marks fell to 0.6 and 0.4 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. But this year, he has fallen as never before, to -0.5.
Scherzer turned 42 years old 28 days ago. We know his recent injury history, and we cannot fail to give credit to a strong arm that has surpassed the impressive challenge of 3,000 innings in the Major Leagues. He is also a strikeout pitcher who ranks in the Top 10 all-time. At this point, we cannot ask him to be the same pitcher he was before. And the key point that is separating him most from the way he used to impact the game is the decline of his best weapon: the slider.
Scherzer once had the best slider in the game. His incredible strikeout rates support the great story that turned his most lethal pitch into a whip against the best hitters of his generation. In 2017, his strikeout rate with the slider climbed to 50%.
Scherzer struck out 76 of the 152 opponents who finished a plate appearance against his unhittable slider. When it came to striking hitters out, getting those ridiculous swings and misses and coming off the mound with that characteristic lion-like leap, the slider made the difference in his arsenal.
This year, his slider has lost all its bite, and that is what is mostly causing hitters to beat him in all kinds of situations. Opponents are hitting .294/.357/.745, with a 1.102 OPS, .451 ISO and 214 wRC+. If you slide the cursor over Scherzer’s Pitch-Type Splits, you can notice that the collapse has been historic.
This season, 58% of the 12 home runs he has allowed have come against his slider. And that is not the only problem. Compared with his metrics from last year, hitters have stopped chasing it by 5.6% and have improved their contact by 15.3% against pitches outside the strike zone.
Every result surrounding Scherzer’s command raises an uncomfortable question, but the most concerning one is not even his future with the organization. With the Blue Jays trying to stay in the race to reach the postseason, the problem is now.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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