Measuring the Negative Impact of D-backs' Struggling Veterans

Heading into 2026, Arizona Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen put together a position-player roster that was expected to produce at roughly a league average pace.

He knew this going in, as he prioritized defense to help his beleaguered pitching staff. Unfortunately, the offense has been significantly worse than that.

The Diamondbacks' Offense is Below Average

Jun 28, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12) reacts after being hit by a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the fourth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

MLB is averaging 4.53 runs per game, but the D-backs are scoring just 4.24 runs per game, which ranks 20th. They're probably fortunate to have scored even that many runs, as their team OPS of .690 ranks just 26th.

Utilizing another metric, wRC, or weighted runs created, we can also see that the Diamondbacks have a total of 368, which also ranks 26th. Based on the players that have played for the team, and the plate appearance they have received, the team projected to have 420 wRC, which would rank 12th.

Individual Player Impact

D-backs actual wRC vs Projected | Jack Sommers

If we compare the projections for the players that have played for the Diamondbacks this year to their actual production, and weight against their playing time, we can see which players have had the largest positive or negative impact versus their projections.

Only five players are in the black, and those that are only marginally so. Those are Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Lawlar, Jose Fernandez, Illdemaro Vargas, and Corbin Carroll.

Remember this is measured against the projections. Vargas and Fernandez recorded slightly more wRC than they were projected to have, but their projections were low to begin with.

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll loads to hit vs Dodgers at Chase Field Jun 2, 2026 — Jun 2, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Corbin Carroll leads the team in wRC but is fifth on this table. He was projected to be a high end producer in the first place, and he's more or less met his projection but only outperformed it by 1.8 wRC.

Jordan Lawlar's OPS and wRC+ are much higher than his projected, but he only has 44 plate appearances, so of course his positive impact is limited. Still, he managed to record +2.6 wRC more than expected already, which is second best on the team. That's an extreme example.

On the negative side of the ledger, Ketel Marte has a .810 OPS and 118 wRC+. Good numbers to be sure. But also well below what he was projected to produce (.849 OPS and 133 wRC+ respectively). When weighted against his 382 plate appearances, the most on the team, his negative number against projected -5.5 wRC is the fifth worst. The overall negative impact is not small.

It's the same with Geraldo Perdomo. His production at the plated has been about league average, but he was supposed to be better than that (102 wRC+ versus 119 projection).

Meanwhile the bottom of the table is painfully obvious. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has racked up -8.6 wRC versus projected in 168 PA.

Pavin Smith has -7.6 in roughly half the PA. Recently-optioned Adrian Del Castillo has -7.4 in 164 PA.

Those three players alone have accounted for 45% of the negative runs in just 12% of the plate appearances.

Summary

Jul 5, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of the jersey of Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Pavin Smith (26) against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Diamondbacks have been to slow to reduce (or eliminate altogether) plate appearances for the most damaging players. At the same time, while you don't want to blame your best players, they are not performing above their projections to make up for it. And none of the role players or rookies who have received playing time, albeit limited, have been able to fill the breach either.

As the team teeters on the edge of becoming a seller instead of a buyer at the trade deadline, it's imperative that they stop giving so many at-bats to Smith and Gurriel. Their time is past.

They must try to get production from younger players and hope they can limit the damage being done while waiting for the stars to get hot.

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