Mariners’ Rule 5 Deadline Reframes Michael Arroyo and Lázaro Montes Call-Up Debate

The Seattle Mariners are running out of time to determine what kind of season this is. They entered Sunday at 62–68 but only two games removed from the final AL wild-card spot. They have an unusual combination — six games under .500 yet still within striking distance of the AL West title. They’re only three games behind the Astros. An obvious question for a club searching for offense: If Michael Arroyo or Lázaro Montes can help, why not find out?

The expected Major League Baseball lockout offers one possible explanation, but it shouldn’t determine Seattle’s decision. MLB’s current CBA expires Dec. 1, and owners are widely expected to institute a lockout if the league and players union have not reached a new agreement. Players on 40-man rosters would then be separated from their clubs, preventing team officials, coaches and medical personnel from communicating or working with them.

Minor-league players outside the 40-man roster would continue operating under their separate CBA.

At first glance, that gives the M’s a reason to leave Arroyo and Montes with Triple-A Tacoma. Keeping them outside the 40-man roster would seemingly allow the Mariners to continue supervising their development during a prolonged work stoppage.

But there’s another problem with that argument. Both players will become Rule 5 eligible in December 2026. That means the Mariners will almost certainly need to add both prospects to their 40-man roster at the November protection deadline. Leaving either player exposed would allow another organization to select them in the Rule 5 Draft.

Michael Arroyo and Lázaro Montes Face Rule 5 Eligibility in 2026

So both paths lead to the same place. Seattle could promote the players now, or it could protect them in November. Either way, Arroyo and Montes would likely be on the 40-man roster before the CBA expires and would be separated from the organization during a subsequent lockout.

That doesn’t mean the Mariners should just go ahead and promote both players. But there is a compelling case for one, if not both.

Arroyo seems to be the most ready. He bats right-handed, an attribute the Mariners specifically considered when discussing a possible promotion after Luke Raley landed on the IL. Instead, they selected Stuart Fairchild.

The club’s publicly reported concerns about Arroyo have centered on his defensive fit. Cole Young occupies second base, the Mariners have reservations about Arroyo’s arm at third, and he remains relatively inexperienced in the outfield.

Montes represents a different calculation. His 37 home runs and .941 OPS are just sitting there. The 21-year-old has continued producing after his promotion to Tacoma, demonstrating that his power can play against upper-minors pitching.

He also comes with defensive limitations and swing-and-miss concerns. Still, he should be promoted when Seattle is prepared to give him regular opportunities at DH or in a corner-outfield position, not simply because expanded September rosters create an extra bench spot.

There would still be costs associated with either promotion. The player would begin accumulating major-league service time, and Seattle would need to dedicate a 40-man roster spot immediately. An option year could also be used if the player were subsequently returned to the minors for at least 20 days.

The decision ultimately comes down to whether Arroyo or Montes can improve the Mariners now, and whether Seattle can provide enough playing time to make the promotion worthwhile.

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