Ranking the Mariners Pitchers Who Could Follow the Reds’ Chase Burns Extension Blueprint

The Cincinnati Reds just handed the Mariners a reason to start thinking seriously about what the future of their pitching staff looks like. Per Jon Morosi, they agreed to a seven-year, $105 million extension with Chase Burns, setting a record for the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher with fewer than four years of major-league service. Cincinnati saw a young frontline starter, accepted the risk and bought themselves long-term certainty before the price could climb any higher. It’s a pretty smart risk for a small-market team.

That doesn’t mean Seattle needs to start handing out $105 million contracts all willy-nilly to the nearest pitchers available. But it does mean the extension timeline continues to change.

Teams are becoming increasingly willing to make enormous commitments before young players reach arbitration, especially when those players appear capable of becoming franchise cornerstones. The Mariners have already extended Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Colt Emerson. Their young pitching remains the glaring omission.

Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller can be removed from this particular conversation. They’ve already reached arbitration, meaning the Mariners would be negotiating from a much different position. Those deals would be based more heavily on established production, rising salaries and the value of buying free-agent seasons.

The Burns framework applies better to pitchers who are still inexpensive, unproven or both.

Here are the four Mariners arms who fit that description, ranked from the strongest comparison to the loosest.

Mariners Pitchers Who Could Benefit From the Chase Burns Contract Market

1. Bryan Woo

Bryan Woo barely makes the service-time cutoff, but he’s the most obvious Mariners candidate. Woo entered 2026 with two years and 121 days of major-league service. He remains pre-arbitration eligible this season, but that changes in 2027. The Mariners haven’t missed the opportunity to extend him. They are simply running out of inexpensive negotiating time.

The Burns contract should matter to Woo because it creates another nine-figure reference point for a young pitcher who hasn’t yet reached arbitration.

There is one fairly large problem for Seattle: Woo has already proven more in the majors than Burns had when Cincinnati made its commitment.

Burns has overwhelming strikeout ability and legitimate ace upside, but the Reds are still betting heavily on projection. Woo has already completed multiple major-league seasons, made an All-Star team and finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting in 2025. He’s already been identified as one of the most logical extension candidates.

A seven-year, $105 million offer would be a perfectly reasonable place to begin the conversation. However, it definitely wouldn’t be enough to finish it. Woo has less team control remaining and a much larger body of major-league evidence.

Still, this is the deal the Mariners should be discussing right now. And if they were to make it to this offseason with no extension in place, it’ll be too late.

They can keep waiting and enjoy Woo at a bargain salary for one more season. Then arbitration arrives, his salary begins climbing and every strong start makes an extension more expensive.

2. Kade Anderson

Anderson hasn’t thrown a major-league pitch yet. He’s still working his way through the Mariners’ system, overpowering Double-A hitters and establishing himself as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects. He and Ryan Sloan represented Seattle in the 2026 Futures Game, with MLB Pipeline listing Anderson as the organization’s No. 1 prospect.

Seattle is obviously not handing Anderson $105 million tomorrow. However, Burns’ deal gives Anderson and his representatives a number to remember once he reaches the majors. Burns debuted in June 2025, accumulated 26 total starts and still convinced Cincinnati to make a nine-figure commitment.

That’s the path Anderson could follow. He reaches Seattle, dominates quickly and forces the Mariners to decide whether they believe in the pitcher before arbitration begins.

3. Ryan Sloan

Ryan Sloan belongs right behind Anderson for essentially the same reason. He hasn’t reached the majors, and we don’t know exactly when he will. Any extension discussion is still hypothetical, and there is far too much development remaining for Seattle to start sketching nine-figure offers.

The talent makes it worth mentioning anyway. Sloan has emerged alongside Anderson as one of the sport’s premier pitching prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him ahead of Anderson and identified him as the top pitching prospect in baseball after a dominant Double-A performance.

Sloan has the arsenal, physical projection and minor-league performance to eventually arrive with the same kind of anticipation that followed Burns. Should he reach the majors and immediately look comfortable, the Mariners would have a decision to make.

They could take the traditional route, renew his contract near the league minimum for several seasons and allow arbitration to determine his raises. Or they could act like Cincinnati.

The interesting part is that Sloan might initially be more attainable than Anderson. He was a high school draft pick and has not received the same college signing bonus or immediate professional spotlight. An extension offered early in his major-league career could provide tremendous security while allowing Seattle to purchase multiple free-agent seasons.

4. Emerson Hancock

Hancock fits the contractual timeline better than he fits the Chase Burns talent comparison. That’s not meant as an insult. It’s simply the way it is. He’s also four years older than Burns.

He’s having a breakout season, posting a 3.17 ERA through 18 starts before the All-Star break. He looks more comfortable than he ever has, thrown more strikes and finally began resembling a dependable major-league starter. Still, it’s not like he resembles Burns in terms of production.

Burns’ contract is built around ace-level traits, massive strikeout totals and the belief that Cincinnati is securing one of baseball’s most dominant young pitchers. Hancock is more likely to settle into the middle or back of a strong rotation.

That still has value. Hancock would fall under the broader blanket of a pre-arbitration extension, but the guarantee would need to be considerably smaller. Seattle could offer five or six years with club options, giving Hancock financial security while locking in an affordable rotation piece.

Chase Burns’ Deal Should Push the Mariners Toward Bryan Woo

Anderson and Sloan could eventually become fascinating extension candidates. Hancock could make sense under a cheaper version of the same model. And Woo is the pitcher standing directly in front of Seattle.

The Burns extension gives Woo additional leverage. Cincinnati just established that a young starter doesn’t need to wait for arbitration or free agency to receive $105 million. Woo has already built a stronger major-league résumé, so any Mariners offer must reflect that reality.

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