Mets' Clay Holmes Dreams Just Took Step Towards Reality

With Clay Holmes officially hitting the open market, could a reunion with the New York Mets be in the cards?

With Clay Holmes reportedly opting out of the final year of his deal and becoming a free agent, could a reunion be in store with the New York Mets? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The New York Mets received a significant update on one of their potential top offseason targets Thursday, as Clay Holmes has reportedly opted out of his contract with the Chicago Cubs, according to ESPN's Jesse Rogers.

The news, of course, doesn't come as a surprise, as it's been expected that Holmes would test the open market after a fantastic 2026 campaign.

In 18 starts spanning 101.1 innings, Holmes posted a 3.29 ERA with 78 strikeouts, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 3.63 FIP. The right-hander's 60.8% ground ball rate was among the highest in baseball, ranking in the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

After such an exceptional season, Holmes will look to cash in this winter and is reportedly open to returning to his former ball club. Chelsea Janes of SNY recently noted that people she's "talked to on both sides believe Holmes is open to a reunion for the right deal."

As for what that deal may look like, well, that's where things get interesting.

What would it take for the Mets to reunite with Clay Holmes?

Clay Holmes would be a solid mid-tier addition to the New York Mets' starting rotation this offseason. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At 33 years old, Holmes will likely seek a minimum of three years in his next contract. If his asking price stays in that range, a reunion is certainly within reach.

During his tenure as Mets president of baseball operations, David Stearns has yet to hand out a contract to a starting pitcher longer than three years.

Rather than committing to lengthy contracts, Stearns has taken advantage of Steve Cohen's deep pockets by offering high salaries on shorter-term deals. The most comparable deal the Mets could offer Holmes this offseason is the three-year, $75 million contract they gave Sean Manaea.

Holmes' market could fall within that price range this winter, making a reunion with the Mets a realistic possibility.

However, if another team is willing to offer Holmes a fourth year, that may be where Stearns draws the line.

New York is expected to be heavily involved in the starting pitching market this winter. They will likely be linked to just about every notable name available, including Tarik Skubal, Michael King, and Kevin Gausman.

The trade market is another realistic avenue they may explore, with big names like Drew Rasmussen, Logan Gilbert, and Joe Ryan all entering their final year of team control.

Still, Holmes has one clear advantage over all of them that may ultimately sway the Mets to prioritize him: he's proven he can handle pitching in New York.

While some may question how much that experience matters, it's clearly something Stearns takes into consideration. During his end-of-season press conference, Stearns said "yes" when asked if there was any truth to the notion that some players struggle to play in New York (h/t SNY Mets).

That creates another layer of uncertainty with potential additions, something Holmes doesn't face after spending more than four seasons in New York with both the Mets and Yankees.

Holmes has also proven to be durable throughout his career, except for a freak injury in May when he was struck by a line drive and fractured his fibula.

All this is to say that for a Mets team that needs stability in its rotation, there aren't many better options than Holmes.

The only glaring issue, of course, is that Holmes isn't the frontline starter the Mets so desperately need, which is where the bulk of their offseason spending figures to be directed.

If New York signs either Skubal or King, both of whom will likely command contracts well over $100 million, that may force the Mets to explore cheaper options.

Still, with Holmes now officially available, the Mets have another reliable option to consider as they look to bolster their rotation this offseason.

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