Projecting the Mets 2027 Starting Rotation: Questions Still Remain in Queens

In a season of disappointments, the New York Mets' starting rotation was among the worst in 2026. The team had a 4.47 ERA, ranking 19th in MLB.

With Freddy Peralta's lackluster Mets tenure and Clay Holmes's injury-shortened season, it's easy to see where the rotation fell short. Despite this, the second half of the season offered a bit of a preview of what Mets fans could see in 2027.

Nolan McLean proved he can be a front-line starter, while guys like Christian Scott and Zac Thornton showed they're capable of living up to their potential. There's also Jonah Tong, who had his moments and will need to produce in spring training, along with Sean Manaea, who had a very up-and-down 2026.

That being said, we'll take an early look at what the starting rotation could look like for the Mets in 2027.

The mainstays

It's safe to say McLean, Thornton, and Scott have guaranteed spots in the rotation. The trio combined for a 3.42 ERA in 2026.

In McLean's case, he proved that his eight starts in 2025 were no fluke. He is likely to receive NL Rookie of the Year votes, and rightfully so.

Thornton was a name most Mets fans weren't familiar with heading into the season, but he provided a much-needed left-handed arm. In a start against the New York Yankees on September 12, he showed he was capable of an elite outing after Mets manager Andy Green opted to leave him in to finish the seventh inning after a mound visit.

That decision proved right, as Thornton finished the game giving up just two earned runs in seven innings with four strikeouts, and didn't allow more than two earned runs in each of his last two starts of the season.

Lastly, Scott showed how well he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2025 season and appeared in only nine games in 2024. All three of these pitchers share one important thing: youth, which is exactly what the Mets are looking for.

The question marks

Manaea, Tong, and Kodai Senga could have roles in the 2027 rotation, but there are fairly significant roadblocks for each one of them. In Manaea's case, 2026 was a mixed bag. He showed signs of the pitcher he was in 2024, but not consistently enough to warrant more than a look for a potential fifth starter spot.

Tong spent the majority of his season in Triple-A. While he got off to a rough start, he had a strong July and August, which earned him a call-up back to the big leagues, where he has shown flashes of the pitcher the Mets hope he will be.

Andy Green was asked where Jonah Tong fits with the Mets next year:

"Been forthright with him - what does an organization desperately need to win a World Series? You need guys that are 6 and 7 starters that start the year in Triple-A that can come up and dominate. You don't win… pic.twitter.com/Oxtv88snmi
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 26, 2026

Senga's starting days may have ended in 2026, but so could his Mets career had it not been for how well he did as a reliever. In Devin Williams's absence, Senga has held the fort as a closer, which is especially impressive as he had never held the role before.

It remains to be seen whether Senga will be in the bullpen in 2027 or be on the team at all. It would be puzzling, however, to see him penciled into the starting rotation, barring any injuries.

The projected starting rotation for 2027

Should the Mets choose to keep the 2027 starting rotation in-house and not opt for a trade or signing a free agent, they could still put together a rotation with promise. The rotation in that scenario would likely be:

McLean
Scott
Thornton
Tong
Manaea

However, after all the risks David Stearns took last offseason, it's hard to believe that he wouldn't at least add one outside arm to what would otherwise be a very young group. Stearns even said it would be "necessary" to add to it in his end-of-season press conference (h/t SNY Mets on Twitter).

While the big fish on the market is Tarik Skubal, other names such as Michael King and Robbie Ray would offer a veteran presence that is otherwise lacking. In a world where Stearns goes this route, perhaps the rotation looks like:

Skubal
McLean
Ray
Scott
Thornton

Nonetheless, it shall be interesting to see what route the Stearns takes, if any, this winter to bolster the team's starting rotation for 2027.

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