The Nationals Power And Speed Will Test The Struggling Orioles This Weekend

If it feels like each series, no matter the opponent, looms large for the Baltimore Orioles, that’s because it does.

Half of what could be another lost season has already slipped away with the O’s failing to establish many good habits or build any momentum. With the team utterly incompetent on the road (16-25) it makes every homestand feel like it’s imperative to capitalize on, but they’ve had one great stretch at Camden yards (a 7-3 homestand in May with three walk-off wins) and other than that they’re a .500 team at home.

So, yeah, this weekend tilt with the upstart Nationals – one of the biggest surprises in baseball – is kind of a big deal. Washington took two of three from the Orioles in DC earlier this season, and, stop me is you’ve heard this one before, Baltimore’s bats couldn’t do enough against a vulnerable pitching staff.

Here’s what to look for this weekend:

Beware The Longball

The Nationals have power throughout their lineup. James Wood is threatening to win a home run crown as a leadoff guy, shortstop CJ Abrams has natural pop, Curtis Mead has proven to be a sage acquisition and even seemingly doomed catcher Keibert Ruiz is mashing (he went 4-for-7 with 6 RBIs in two games against the O’s this season).

If you throw meatballs and mistakes, they will make you pay. It’s been more of a problem for the Orioles’ bullpen than rotation lately. The Nats are fourth in MLB in homers and fourth in home run/at bat and sixth in doubles. Camden Yards is going to play quite well for them. They’ve displayed a knack for staging some wild comebacks; they have 16 come-from-behind wins this season which has allowed them to hang around .500

Bullpen Attrition

These games could end up being four-hour slogs with neither team able to get outs in the final three innings. Washington’s bullpen is a total disaster. They have 23 blown saves in 47 opportunities.

From the 7th inning on, the Nats have a team ERA of 5.29, 28th in MLB. They have a 1.52 WHIP from the 7th in, 29th in MLB. And they are allowing a .440 SLG in that range, 29th in MLB. There just isn’t much to trust there on the backend. In the month of June, the Nationals have a 7.17 ERA from the seventh inning on.

The Orioles’ hitters tend to do their best work against the underbelly of opposing bullpens. This is as robust of a bullpen gut as there is in the league right now. Maybe we get more walk-off magic?

And we’ve documented how horrible the Orioles are right now with their options from the 7th on save for Yennier Cano. Rico Garcia is hardwired to surrender homeruns and Craig Albernaz better back off Garcia and be judicious about he uses him against this lineup.

Control The Run Game

We’ll see if and when Adley Rutschman can return to the lineup and stay in the lineup and actually catch four or five days in a row. It happened just twice in the first half of the season and he entered the weekend on the concussion Injured List. Rutschman has done a much better job controlling runners on base this season and the Nats are going to test whomever is behind the dish.

Samuel Basallo has a better arm, but accuracy can be an issue. The pitchers are going to have stay locked in and help the 21-year-old kid back there if Albernaz rides him hard. Basallo caught a day game after a night game twice in the final four games of the West Coast trip before Thursday’s off-day.

The Nationals already have 86 stolen bases, second in MLB, while being caught just 20 times. They have stolen 28 bases this month and been caught just four times. They were running on JT Realmuto every chance they got Thursday night.

The Nats already have an identity and a an overachieving ethos from their rookie skipper, while the Orioles novice manager has been getting outclassed, while their horrible fundamentals continue to rot their product. This could be a major factor in this series.

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